Highest Ever House Vacancy Rate

by: Bill Cara February 06, 2007    

Bill Cara

About this author: By this author:
Become a Contributor Submit an Article
  • Font Size:
  • Print
I read a Wall St Journal article that was headlined “Vacant Homes For Sale Cloud Economic Hopes; Data Pointing to Glut Are Worst in Decades; Impact of Speculators.”

I could say the same for stocks. Too many traders are ignoring today's reality.

In the U.S., the housing market has hit a vacancy rate of +2.7%. Before 2006, this number had never been higher than +2.0%!

I don’t know about you, but I can’t see so many empty homes. The ones I see are occupied – like they have been for many years. What’s happened, I surmise, is that recent construction projects are going unsold with maybe 30-40-50% empty! Otherwise how could the national homeowner vacancy rate be +2.7%?

Related Articles

This article has 3 comments:

  •  
    Feb 06 02:35 PM
    I cannot speak for the nation, but in my area I see:

    Builder's specs sitting longer, and

    Quite a few homes held by previous owners who have moved without selling the house yet -- and undecided whether to rent or keep on the market.

    Many of the folks I see in this situation don't like it but can afford it; they had a lot of equity in the place so their total debt load is manageable.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Feb 06 02:40 PM
    Before I pay attention to anything Cara writes going forward, I'd like to see him come clean on his track record of being wrong on virtually every market call he has made over the past year.

    Two examples I'd like him to address:

    On July 17, 2006 he described GM in scatological terms, slamming the company:

    www.billcara.com/archi...

    GM has gone steadily higher ever since. Someone who bought GM when Cara advised selling it would be up 19%, not counting dividends.

    On July 6, 2006, he advised buying USGL (now USG) at 8.65:

    www.billcara.com/archi...

    Which would have caused somebody following his advice to lose 43% through today.

    Never to my knowledge has Cara ever acknowledged the results of his recommendations. His disasters are quietly, silently sent down the memory hole.

    And if he wants to really be forthcoming, perhaps he could explain his prediction that the DJIA would close 2006 at 8800?

    www.billcara.com/archi...
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Feb 06 08:39 PM
    Its not in already urabanized areas....The empty houses are obviously due the greedy development in new suburbs or exurbs..which are far away like in space, just out of this world...you need to drive few light years to their..no wonder you can't see them...

    and also it might be a blessing in disguise for sales people..who are trying to sell homes in urban or sub-urbs...other than the data in the paper...people are not noticing them...could have a positive sentiment as winter gives way to spring and people start thinking of moving or whatever....

    Mahesh Reddy.
    Reply | Link to Comment
Top Rated Comment Streams:

Numbers are net rating-

See all Top 100 »
More by Bill Cara

Investment Resources
Money Management
Research
Seeking Alpha provides these ads as a service to its leading contributors
Articles on related themes
Housing & Real Estate
Bonds
Dollar/Currencies
Earnings