Consensus Economist Estimates Don't Suggest a Recession

by: Bespoke Investment Group January 13, 2008 | about stocks: DIA / IEF / IVV / SPY    

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Bloomberg released its most recent survey of 66 economists on a number of economic indicators last week. Below we highlight the consensus estimates along with where they stood last month.

As shown, while 4th quarter '07 GDP estimates went higher, all quarters in 2008 were lowered. Consensus estimates still aren't pointing towards a recession however. Employment rate and CPI estimates ticked slightly higher in the past month, while Fed Funds Rate estimates ticked lower.

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This article has 4 comments:

  •  
    Jan 13 04:30 PM
    Ok... I am not going to insult anyone with a long cogent article full of link s and numbers that should make the average investor say, "O a recession ? No shit."

    It would be insulting because at this point when asked if our economy is headed towards a recession I think the average investor would ask me where I parked my squad car.

    This article in itself is evidence of a the coming recession, irrational hubris, investors wanting to will the stock market up.

    I am sorry people but we can't stop China's bubble it will have to spectacularly crash on its own and we certainly aren't ever going to have cheaper oil.

    We all understand supply and demand right ?

    We will be effectively "out" of oil by 2013 and the financial times agrees with me.

    How then are we going to simultaneously stop the housing debacle, and get cheaper energy in the next 1-2 years ?? What about 5 years ?

    There will be a recession. I'm sorry but at this point it's a joke to argue otherwise. I just hope it isn't too painful and DC gets a bit smarter ( nuclear energy, non bankrupting foreign policy , etc )

    Until then ya'll keep buying and I'll keep shorting.

    I am short the DOW via DOG.

    I should be long oil and gold and short the dollar for the next year or so.

    I think being long oil (spot price NOT a corporation...volume issues...get it ?) / short our stock market are the most obvious choices here.
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  •  
    Jan 13 11:12 PM
    This is known to be one of the worst recession indicators. About a month AFTER the NASDAQ crash something like 33% of Economists predicted a recession. "It's just Wall St. ...it won't affect Main St. ...blah, blah, blah." Anyway, there is ZERO correlation...

    What does have a correlation is when UE increases >0.5% from it's trough it has correctly predicted every recession 100% of the time since WWII. We are currently up 0.6%.

    Guess what? Expect a recession.
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  •  
    Jan 14 12:44 PM
    A slowdond like 1995?
    I Don't think so.
    Retail Sales will be reported tomorrow.
    I deflated RS by the CPI and this Real RS is trending lower
    and is below the 1995 level.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Jan 14 01:55 PM
    What Bar do those Economists drink in ? Every state is having a drop in employment, housing forclosures are at an all time high, Gov. spending has placed us so far in debt that paying it off is impossible to imagine and even most peoples credit cards are maxed out and those Card Companies are worried sick, ..but these brilliant Economists think that thngs are's so bad , huh ?
    I can't imagine that any one of those Economists are going to replace Bernanke,...but who knows, maybe Bernanke drank at the same bar ! Also, am wondering when they got out of "Rehab" ? LC
    Reply | Link to Comment
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