Bullish Investors Should Be Rooting for the NY Giants

by: Bespoke Investment Group February 02, 2008 | about stocks: IVV / SPY    

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With the big game coming up on Sunday, we decided to play with some numbers a little. While there have been several variations over the years, the Super Bowl Indicator basically says that equities do better when the NFC wins the Super Bowl.

Below we have summarized the average performance of the S&P 500 from the date of the Super Bowl through year end depending on which conference the winner comes from. As shown, over time, the bias has certainly been in the NFC's favor, with an average gain of 13% and positive returns 86% of the time.

Turning our attention to individual teams shows that bullish investors should be rooting for the Giants. The table below shows the average return through year end following the Super Bowl depending on which team won (In order to make the list a team had to win at least two Super Bowls.) The average return of the S&P 500 following the three Patriots wins (2002, 2004, and 2005) is a decline of 3.6%. Following Giants wins (1987 and 1991), the average return was a gain of 7.8%.

No matter who wins this year, let's just be thankful that the Dolphins, with their 1-15 record, will be watching from home. They won the Super Bowl twice (1973 and 1974), and following each victory the S&P 500 declined by 18% and 27%, respectively.

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This article has 4 comments:

  •  
    Feb 03 08:43 AM
    Eh, come on, people, it's a fun and oft-cited stat. I can't think of any reason it might obtain though.
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  •  
    Feb 03 10:06 AM
    In the spirit of things, the principle of Reversion to the Mean might dictate that a Giants win would lead to a down year. ;-)
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Feb 03 11:34 AM
    I assume the authors are intelligent but bored. At the least they have decent paying jobs and internet access plus the ability to "journalize"... This article goes to prove how stupid people believe stupid things in the hope to achieve above average stock market gains. If scientists and engineers used this type of STUPID MATH we would be lighting our homes with batteries.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Feb 03 12:32 PM
    Why do you print such nonsense? To fill space like CNBC does to fill time or do you really believe this stuff. It would be nice if the media would do some work and get a real investment story. Stuff like this should remind investors they should pay attention to facts rather than anyone's opinions.

    Aside from the stupidity of this kind of stuff, the maket goes up more than seventy percent of the time (markets go down faster and more violently), a fact that is completely lost on these morons. Consequently, all statistical extrapolation (an investors killer) has to be adjusted accordingly.
    Reply | Link to Comment
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