Market Outlook: Watch Out, the Signs Can Be Deceiving

by: Michael Panzner March 23, 2008 | about stocks: DIA / QQQQ / SPY    
Michael Panzner

Michael Panzner

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For the bulls, the events of the past several days have marked a major turning point for the U.S. equity market.

Share prices staged their first weekly gain in a month. The Federal Reserve pulled out all stops to save the banking system. Financial shares bounced hard, and inflation fears eased as commodity prices fell back to earth.

In other words, the ducks are all lined up: it’s time to buy.

Upon closer inspection, however, recent developments are less than reassuring. History suggests, for example, that major upside reversals are rarely anticipated before the fact - or at the time. Often, they are not even acknowledged for days or months after a rally has begun.

Yet there was plenty of talk this week about "bottom-fishing," "buying opportunities," and the likelihood of a "bear market bounce" in share prices. Analyst Richard Bove proclaimed that “the financial crisis was over.” A Merrill Lynch survey revealed that money managers were itching to buy “undervalued” equities.

These are not exactly signs of excessive pessimism.

There hasn’t been much “capitulation” by weak hands, either. Apart from the quick downdraft that occurred in mid-January, apparently spurred by hedge fund selling, the decline from the October record peak has been fairly orderly.

Yet the absence of a washout doesn’t seem to phase the bulls. One pundit even went so far as to say that a lack of panic-type selling like we saw last Monday was “another sign that we could be near a bottom.” That takes the cake as far as bullish rationalizations go.

What about the fact that financials were at the head of the pack during this past week’s recovery? Was it because investors were taking advantage of what Bove characterized as a “once in a generation opportunity to buy,” or did it have everything to do with the fact that the most heavily-shorted shares were being squeezed the hardest?

Otherwise, is it actually good news that Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) can now operate with even smaller capital cushions than they had before? Or that curious financial footwork helped some brokers to beat Street estimates, even though their outlooks remained dicey? Or that the Bear Stearns (BSC) “rescue” could only be solved with the help of $30 billion in non-recourse Federal Reserve loans?

Many bulls also took comfort from the sharp decline in commodity prices, which was seen as a sign that inflation was no longer a concern. Reports indicate, however, that “de-leveraging” by hedge funds and proprietary trading desks played a major role in the unwinding. Instead of being good news, the slump probably means that bursting-credit-bubble deflation is gathering force, which is bad news for share prices.

Of course, what really got the bullish juices flowing recently are the actions of the Fed. From helping to orchestrate a Bear Stearns bailout, to cutting the discount and federal funds rates, to opening up new sources of liquidity for an ever-widening array of institutions, Bernanke & Co. are doing anything and everything they can to try and save the day.

Unfortunately, there’s just one thing missing: good results.

Former Fed vice chairman Alan Blinder, a Princeton University professor, said the following in a Bloomberg report:

He has taken extraordinary measures, things that we haven't seen since the Great Depression. He's working overtime, literally and figuratively, to get this panic under control. But so far, it's not under control.

Arguably, the Federal Reserve is actually making things worse. For instance, rather than bolstering confidence, the central bank’s seemingly reactive and seat-of-the-pants, secretive, and unusually forceful response suggests that policymakers are desperate and behind the curve.

In addition, new liquidity facilities that allow a broad range of unnamed counterparties to swap unknown amounts of mis-rated and overpriced mortgage-backed securities for U.S. government bonds only adds to uncertainty about valuations and the extent of the problems that like ahead.

Finally, people are being led to believe that things are under control, so instead of doing whatever is necessary to prepare for the worst, they are setting themselves up for an even bigger blindsiding than before.

In sum, while bulls believe that share prices are poised to reverse and move sharply higher, the facts suggest otherwise. In reality, what they are seeing is the set-up for the next leg down. Some might call that a continuation point.

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This article has 59 comments:

  •  
    Mar 23 07:25 AM
    I agree. I am very cautious at this time. I expect we will see some dips yet. Wish I was more in cash as of December 2007. Should have trusted my gut??
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  •  
    Mar 23 07:56 AM
    our economic system is finished, realize shares, bonds and unnescary
    property.

    Keep principally to gold and silver, because the system is 100 % imploding
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Mar 23 08:29 AM
    I am in agreement Michael. Right now I am mainly in cash, and will be ready to invest in high quality equities only when we have the full story of the mess that is currently unwinding. I expect some more jitters on the way down as people try to pick bottom. Unlike a lot of the other bears I am shying away from commodities - despite the potential upside I think a weakening US economy could just as easily reduce demand and encourage speculators to unload.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Mar 23 08:50 AM
    I agree with Rene Cohrt. The system is collapsing. I don't trust any so-called rally. I believe all the banks, brokers and mortgage companies are in very very deep trouble and either will fail or require massive amounts of new capital. I trust gold, silver, and energy that is not printed on a printing press.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Mar 23 09:24 AM
    I think the markets do little to predict what really is happening. Just look at how oil is going these days. I think the Bearns and Sterns problems indicate how you can look great one day and in the toliet the next. Deception appears to run rampent in the markets these days.
    I myself cannot imagine investing in any stocks for fear some rumor or hint at impending doom would crash the stock. The markets also do little to impress the average Joe who does not even own stock. Joe's concern is that is job will be eliminated or that his gas bill will replace his mortagage as his highest bill for the month.
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  •  
    Mar 23 09:52 AM
    re: Deception appears to run rampant in the markets these days.

    I don't think you need more proof of that, but I'll post it anyway:
    nothingcontroversial.c...
    and the saddest part,
    those 330+ billions of dollars are not even on the "potential liabilities" books of the major financial institutions. Those "chickens" eventually come to roost too!
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Mar 23 09:55 AM
    The Fed has only bailed out Wall Street and the greedy errors of the large banks. By continually printing more and more money for these bailouts the Fed is setting us up for a 1970's type inflation with huge growth in interest rates and continued price inflation in the commodities that the average American cannot do without - food and energy. It is hard to see where the Fed's actions are going to help the people on Main street! And Michael is absolutely right - market bottoms do not happen in a day. the technical damage to this market is so bad it will take a long time to repair. In the immediate past we have been spoiled by quick turnarounds but history shows that real bear markets can last years not months.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Mar 23 10:00 AM
    Perhaps the next bubble is in gold and silver (which, by implication, would also pop.) The phrase "nothing in excess," the golden mean of the ancient Greeks, may be of use to us in moving forward. That might be a diversification theme.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Mar 23 10:00 AM
    The current energy crisis (as it is perceived in USA) is nothing new in Europe. There (Europe) the people have lived, and do, with even higher energy prices for many years. It is imperative that here in USA, we must view our current energy crisis and its concequences in our daily life, as a serious hint suggesting that WE MUST change "our way of life" and adjust accordingly. It is a matter of survival.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Mar 23 10:18 AM
    The story I have just read interests me quite a lot. However, I think it is one of the stories anyone can conceive. I do believe what U.S. government has done so far will soon prove to be effective in easing pains the investors have suffered from.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Mar 23 10:19 AM
    I would suggest that the mother of all capitulations, albeit a virtual one, took place after the US markets closed on Friday March 14 and prior to their opening on the 17th; reference the predictions of what might have been had the ‘rescue’ not been engineered. Now if only a ‘rescue’ of the housing market would be engineered then we could all get back on that virtual bull…
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  •  
    Mar 23 10:27 AM
    AS the world evolves, markets evolve. It has been 6 months since the first rate cut. WE have had the implosion of BSC. The housing market is a mess. And as we speak we have the de-leveraging phase happening. SIlver down 3.00 in 2 days. Gold down 100.00 in 2-3 days....crude down big also.

    nothing get fixed overnight. will there be more negativity? probably. But get ready, good times still to come. Wealth is changing hands. The longs had it for the past number of years, now the shorts are getting their turn. ALL CYCLICAL. Figure out where you think we are in th cycle and go for it!
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Mar 23 10:55 AM
    Since there is so much angst directed toward the Fed and the US Government, I decided to list some events, not all of them, that had dramatic ramifications on lives, cost and the psychology of our country. I started in 1906 because it’s just a little over a hundred years. Some of the events were world wide but still had a cause and effect on America and the world. As I compiled the list, I could not help but feel the great sacrifices that many American’s have made and what a resilient country, economy and government we have in American that stretches the entire globe.

    The 1906 San Francisco Earthquake and fire, registered 8.25 on the Richter scale; estimates range from 700 to 3,000 dead or missing, approximately 225,000 injuries and $400,000,000 in 1906 dollars.

    Recession, May 1907-June 1908, 13 mo

    Model T, 1908, came into popular usage

    Recession Jan. 1910-Jan. 1912, 24 months

    Completion of the Panama Canal, 1914 – 27,500 workers are estimated to have died

    Recession Jan. 1913-Dec. 1914 23 months

    World War I -- 116,708 killed – 33 billion

    Spanish influenza, 1918, killed over 500,000 people in the worst single U.S. epidemic.

    Recession Aug. 1918-March 1919 7 months

    The first radio news program was broadcast August 31, 1920, in Detroit, Michigan

    Recession Jan. 1920-July 1921, 18 months

    Recession May 1923-July 1924 14 months

    Recession Oct. 1926-Nov. 1927 13 months

    Bell Labs gave important demonstration of television April 7, 1927

    The Great Mississippi Flood of 1927, flooded 27,000 square miles, 246 killed

    The Great Depression, Black Tuesday, crop prices fell by 40 to 60 percent, after the panic of 1929, and during the first 10 months of 1930, 744 US banks failed. (In all, 9,000 banks failed during the 1930s). By 1933, depositors had lost $140 billion in deposits.

    The Dirty Thirties, longest drought of 20th century. Peak periods were 1930, 1934, 1936, 1939, and 1940. The dust bowl covered 50 million acres in the south-central plains during the winter of 1935-1936.
    Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, 400 killed

    Recession May 1937-June 1938 13 months

    World War II – 408,306 killed – 360 billion

    Wartime Controls: 1941-1945 rationed consumer items ranging from sugar to gasoline

    The United States developed the first atomic weapons during World War II

    Recession Feb. 1945-Oct. 1945 8 months

    The UN was founded in 1945 to replace the League of Nations

    The Marshall Plan, July 1947 – 13 billion in economic and technical assistance were given to help the recovery of the European countries

    On 16 December 1947, William Shockley, John Bardeen and Walter Brattain succeeded in building the first practical point-contact transistor at Bell Labs

    Cable television, formerly known as Community Antenna Television or CATV, was born in the mountains of Pennsylvania in 1948.

    Israel declares independence, May 14, 1948,

    Berlin's Crisis (June 24, 1948 to May 11, 1949) was one of the first major crises of the new Cold War

    Recession Nov. 1948-Oct. 1949 11 months

    The Soviet Union tested its first nuclear weapon ( Joe-1 ) in 1949

    Chiang Kai-shek moves his government from communist China to Taipei, Taiwan (formerly Formosa), where he formally resumed his duties as president on March 1, 1950.

    Korean War, July 1951 - July 1953 – 33,000 killed in action

    The United Kingdom tested its first nuclear weapon ( Hurricane ) in 1952

    Recession July 1953-May 1954 10 months

    The Supreme Court rules on the landmark case Brown v. Board of Education of Topeka, Kans., unanimously agreeing that segregation in public schools is unconstitutional – May 17, 1954.

    The Suez Crisis of 1956 – was a military attack on Egypt by Britain, France, and Israel beginning on 29 October 1956.
    Recession Aug. 1957-April 1958 8 months

    Alaska becomes 49th state of the U.S. on January 3, 1959

    Hawaii becomes 50th state of the U.S. on August 21, 1959

    U–2 Incident of 1960 occurred when an American U–2 spy plane was shot down over the Soviet Union

    France tested its first nuclear weapon in 1960 ( Gerboise Bleue )

    Recession April 1960-Feb. 1961 10 months

    The Cold War, some estimates shows $8 trillion was spent, worldwide, on nuclear and other weapons between 1945 and 1996

    The Cuban Missile Crisis, Oct. 1962

    Martin Luther King is arrested and jailed during anti-segregation protests in Birmingham, Ala.; April 16, 1963.

    Vietnam War, 1963 – 47,378 killed in action

    200,000 people join the March on Washington. Congregating at the Lincoln Memorial, participants listen as Martin Luther King delivers his famous I Have a Dream speech. Aug 28, 1963.

    The murder of JFK, 1963 Nov

    Good Friday Earthquake (1964) In Alaska, it was the fourth biggest earthquake recorded

    The Gulf of Tonkin Incident, Aug 1964

    China tested its first nuclear weapon in 1964

    President Johnson signs the Civil Rights Act of 1964.

    Malcolm X, black nationalist and founder of the Organization of Afro-American Unity, is shot to death – Feb 21, 1965

    1967 Arab-Israeli War – was fought between Israel and Arab neighbors Egypt, Jordan, and Syria. The nations of Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Algeria also contributed troops and arms to the Arab forces.

    The murder of Dr King, April 1968 and Bobby Kennedy, June 1968

    The city riots of April, 1968 – 30 cities affected

    President Johnson signs the Civil Rights Act of 1968, prohibiting discrimination in the sale, rental, and financing of housing.

    Hurricane Camille, Aug 1969, 259 killed

    Recession Dec. 1969-Nov. 1970 11 months

    Stagflation of the 1970s began

    Nixon first imposed wage and price controls on August 15, 1971

    World Trade Center ribbon cutting ceremony was on April 4, 1973

    1973 Arab-Israeli War or Yom Kippur War – a surprise joint attack by Egypt and Syria on the Jewish holiday of Yom Kippur.

    Oil Embargo, Oct 1973 long gas lines

    Recession Nov. 1973-March 1975 16 months

    Articles of Impeachment of Nixon started
    (Approved by a vote of 27-11 by the House Judiciary Committee on Saturday, July 27, 1974.)

    India's first nuclear test occurred on the 18th of May, 1974

    Deregulation: 1974-1992 this era began when Nixon left office

    Home computers start to enter retail markets, in 1977, and becoming common during the 1980s

    Bell Labs launches first commercial cellular network in Chicago – 1978

    Three Mile Island nuclear power plant crisis, March 1979

    The Carter Administration decides to come to the aid of Chrysler Corp, 1979

    Mount St. Helens eruption 1980

    The US Savings and Loan crisis of the 1980s begins, more than 1,000 savings and loan institutions failed.

    Recession Jan. 1980-July 1980 6 months

    Prime reached unbelievable 20% in January 1981,

    AIDS was first reported June 5, 1981 by the government – It is thought that more than one million people are living with HIV in the USA and that more than half a million have died after developing AIDS.

    Recession July 1981-Nov. 1982 16 months

    California earthquake 1983

    The 87 market crash - Black Monday

    Pakistan acquires the ability to carry out a nuclear explosion in 1987

    California earthquake, 1989

    Recession July 1990-March 1991 8 months

    Iraq invaded Kuwait on August 2, 1990

    Nikkei stock index crashed by over 30,000 points, the average home near Tokyo cost well over $2 million before the crash in 1989

    The Persian Gulf War, 1991 or Desert Storm Jan 1991

    Hurricane Andrew 1992 very destructive United States hurricane

    World Trade Center bombing, February 26, 1993

    The Great USA Flood of 1993

    The 1995 bailout of Mexico

    East Asian Financial Crisis was a period of financial crisis that gripped much of Asia beginning in the summer of (July) 1997

    Intervention in the Former Yugoslavia – March 24-June 10, 1999, NATO bombing of FR Yugoslavia

    The International Monetary Fund approves an immediate $5.3bil emergency payment for Brazil to rescue its economy, Dec 1998

    IMF protects US banks in Russian bailout, July 1998, Russia receives $22.6 billion in loans

    Dot Com Bubble, climaxed on March 10th, 2000 with the NASDAQ peaking at 5132.52

    9/11 Attack, 2,974 people died

    Recession March 2001-Nov. 2001 8 months, Airline Industry Collapsed

    Enron bankruptcy in late 2001, employed 22,000

    WorldCom, July 21, 2002, filed for Chapter 11
    Iraq War, March 19, 2003 – 4,000 dead

    Hurricane Katrina, late August 2005, 1,836 people lost their lives

    Start of the Great Housing Recession/Depression or Sub-prime Recession, date to be determined.
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  •  
    Mar 23 11:07 AM
    The U.S. economic "bubblets" that Greenspan always spoke of are huge boom and busts over 3-4 year periods. You have several bubble poppings simealtaneously so a sharp correction to the numbers of a depression would not be surprising. Depression is not the end of the world. Me and some guys predicted two deep quarters of recession in June, followed by massive stimulus and 3 quarters of low or flat growth then deep recession or depression depending on if Administration does something real on energy independence and like, right now.

    It's time to de-regulate our own energy crisis, subsidize bio, nuke, coal liquification drill everywhere without restriction etc. I see some politicians changing their minds to even acknowleding one of the main sources of an economic fix is energy independence. But many are stubbornly asserting global warming policy crap as State Governors speak of building coal & nuke plants and get outvoted on new measures to innovate (gee which party is that I wonder, the Socialist party?).

    We must innovate or die but let's innovate and all invest in American energy instead of Arabs, shall we? Seems like they never heard the proverb don't bite the hand that feeds you!

    Second, let's get all the Boston VC leaders and students involved with the Fed from Harvard, Wharton School of Business, MIT etc. to get down into the numbers of the credit crisis and subprime and also energy independence. No matter how bad we can fix it but confidence is out the window until these numbers are fully known and acknowledged.

    Third, we must rid the system of corruption. This will be the hardest to do as it really is the gov's fault for lifting regulation on banking (always a mess!) and those who committed fraud must do time in the steel pagoda. Can't rebuild an economy with bad, pure greed/selfish management. Management must be incentivized based on performance only (imagine that idea LOL).
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  •  
    Mar 23 11:48 AM
    Great coverage of both sides of the story. But there is still a frightening silence on the issue of rapidly approaching terminal decline in oil supplies. When will energy be the focus of every financial discussion every day? Until that happens, our economy is doomed to fall off a cliff.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Mar 23 11:51 AM
    The fact that everyone here seems to be on panic alert tells me it's time to go shopping! Thanks everyone:)
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Mar 23 12:01 PM
    I totally agree with Michael.

    Vast amount of money going into the commodities market and then taking profit ... and you say this indicates that inflation is no longer a concern? And you say the financials are recovering and now is the right time to buy?
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  •  
    Mar 23 12:04 PM
    You can bet the turkeys that are calling the bottom are already long the market. They need one more dead cat bounce so they can get their t%ts out of the wringer. There are no equities that are worth what they were last year before the price of oil tripled. The light the bulls see at the end of the tunnel is really the inflation freight train and it rolling toward them at 100 miles per hour.
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  •  
    Mar 23 12:28 PM
    Oh, there is definitely another leg down, but it will be unequal fo diferent indices. The DOW and to some extent the S&P 500 will be protected because of size. Outflows from still overpriced mid and small caps wll gravitate towards the large caps, especially the consistent dividend payers.
    Another mollifying aspect is that, due to computer trading now, the markets are more orderly. In the crash of '87, brokers just stopped taking calls. This created a logjam of sell orders, and the cascade ensued. This may portend that there will be no capitulation sell signal, and we are in for a violent up-and-down roller coaster ride of lower lows and lower highs for the immediate future.
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  •  
    Mar 23 12:39 PM
    Sentiment-wise I agree there appears to be too much agreement that financials will soar out of the gate here and pull the rest of the market with it, but it's a tricky call short-term, especially given the current rally we're seeing in ground zero of this debacle, i.e. the homebuilders.

    My current strategy is to short the builders hard when they reach their previous highs in Jan/Feb as there appears to be a possible triple top forming that may be a very firm ceiling, and fundamentally you have to be a madman to be bullish on this sector--or willing to wait 3-5 years for your return on any builders that are still in business.

    I also plan to wait and watch the financials as they may follow a similar pattern further out in time. In short, the Fed has provided the rocket fuel for a possible sharp extended rally in the banks and brokers, but until this derivatives vampire is fully exposed to the light of day it WILL continue to haunt this sector and thwart any serious recovery. IMO these will all be trader rallies, and very suspect as such, with no firm bottom in sight in the near future.

    Interesting that some very smart guys continue to be smacked silly by their way early bottom-picking over the past two months--Bill Miller and Steve Suggerand are two that come immediately to mind--and yet they are STILL buying--and telling others to jump in as well--with all the enthusiasm of a starving mongrel cruising a Burger King dumpster. Miller, in fact, was at some public symposium
    in NY crowing loudly about Bear Stearns being a screaming buy the very Friday it collapsed in front of the JPM buyout. This is the same so-called professional who jumped into WM and TMA months ago. Talk about a cold hand!

    And Suggerand, who I used to respect, I think may be having a bit of a breakdown--his latest very bullish calls are believe it or not on 1) homebuilders, 2) regional banks (this one I can possibly get behind if the individual bank has a clean loan portfolio), and 3) commercial REITS--gulp!

    I'm not sure what you call the opposite of a wall of worry--maybe a mountain of happy horsesh#t?--but these two geniuses are manically shoveling faster and faster as the tide rolls in. I've never seen anything like it, and have to guess it is the result of a potentially lethal mixture of pride and denial. Professional money managers indeed!
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  •  
    Mar 23 12:48 PM
    Nobody knows for sure where the market will go from here. All I know is to buy or sell something that I feel comfortable and doesn't require my constant checking on the price. If I find myself checking the price repeatedly, it means I am speculating. Whenever that happens, I'm in trouble.
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  •  
    Mar 23 12:50 PM
    tony soprano - your list of historical happenings was a chore to scan through the first time you published it. What's new?
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Mar 23 12:50 PM
    Mr. Michael Panzner talks about another leg down. Others are saying there will be a reflex rally. Those are general market predictions and fairly easy to make. What I would like to see Mr. Michael Panzner do is make a prediction as to how far down this leg will be. At this point, the longs don't care. Time and history are on their side.
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  •  
    Mar 23 01:07 PM
    It is very frightening that there are many references to the 1987 crash, but seldom is there note that 1987 was also the first time the DJIA broke through 2,000. Yes, cub scouts, you read that right. The first time the DJIA broke through 2,000 was 1987, and the geometrically accelerating market since then is a clear sign that there is a rapidly decreasing correlation between market sentiment and reality. Until more investors are aware of the reality of the current market hysteria, there will be no intelligent discussion on the state of the market, and until there is intelligent discussion of the relationship between energy and the economy, thee will be no awareness of what lies ahead. There are many discussions of alternative energy, but seldom is there awareness of the almost unimaginable scale of the current use of energy and the daunting task of refitting our global infrastructure. Let's start to prepare to scale down our vision of the future.
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  •  
    Mar 23 01:22 PM
    Mr. Micheal Panzner when was the last time you were bullish? Please respond.
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  •  
    Mar 23 01:26 PM
    Have the large fund managers started buying yet?
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  •  
    Mar 23 01:29 PM
    Predictions are easy - however, even when correct, no one believes. If one could truly predict the markets why spread the info? I fear a sage or oracle will invest then divulge thereby profiting from their claim re: the future.
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  •  
    Mar 23 01:43 PM
    Michael -
    I have to say I'm in your corner in this one. IMHO, most of the big banks are rotten to the core and a lot of them will fail, no matter what the fed does. After all, you can't cure too much debt by adding more debt!
    Excelent article with many thought provoking comments.
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  •  
    Mar 23 01:45 PM
    leh deserves an acadamy award for the best metaphor!!!!!!!starvin... mongrel cruising a Buger King dumpster!!!!!!!! also I have to agree with you....the amount of horsemanure piling up by so called analysts is enough to make any farmer envious!
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  •  
    Mar 23 02:25 PM
    The market has long been manipulated by the power house moguls at the exense of the little investor. It was true in 1929, throughout the 1930's, in the recessions of the 50's, 70's, 80's, 90's, early 2000's, and today. The rich get richer and the rest get screwed! "Plus ca change, plus c'est meme chose".
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