Tibetan Unrest and Economic Implications: 'Nancy Pelosi's War'
Excerpts from Dr. Enzio von Pfeil's recent appearance on Bloomberg Television UK:
1. "Nancy Pelosi's War"
- If you have not seen the film Charlie Wilson's War, then do! It, along with Crile's book, is brilliant, funny and realistic.
- Ms. Pelosi is no less cunning, and no doubt must feel very motivated by the movie.
- Having dealt with her indirectly in the late 1980s, she must be one of the strongest China-haters on the Hill.
- Thus, she loves stirring, all the more so ahead of the not so august Olympics this August.
- Indeed, there already are many fissures in the fiefdoms that constitute a medieval society wearing ties...
- But one cannot blame the Tibetan mess solely on a lady from San Francisco. So why did the Tibetans riot from 14th - 15th March? Said Economist provides some clues:
- Strong economic growth has helped the Han Chinese, but not the local Tibetans;
- The hard-line policies of Tibet's party chief are hated. Zhang Qingli has quelled participation in religious activities, and has denounced the deeply-revered Dalai Lama. Seems to me that the stature of the Dalai Lama is to Tibetans what the stature of the King of Thailand is to the Thais.
2. Circling the Wagons
- Of course it is not only Nancy Pelosi stirring.
- In Charlie Wilson's War, Gen. Zia wanted the Americans to get the Afghan pot boiling - but not boiling over into Pakistan. In "Nancy Pelosi's War", however, the Americans want the Tibetan pot to boil over into China.
- Tibetan "reach". That is easy: according to The Economist of 22nd March, 2008, p. 27, "Since March 10th protests have been reported not only in Lhasa's main monasteries...but also at Samye Monastery about 60 km east of Lhasa, Labrabrang Monastery in Gansu province, Kirti Monastery in Sichuan province, and Rongwo Monastery in Qinghai province. Tibet's traditional boundaries stretch into these provinces."
- Olympic flames. The Olympic flame is due to arrive in Lhasa, Tibet's capital, on June 20. How embarrassing to the Chinese if this festivity is marred by more Tibetan riots...
- Muslims. We read further that "China worries too about the possibility that other ethnic minorities in China, particularly Muslim Uighurs in the far western region of Xinjiang, may be emboldened by Tibetan activism if it is left unchecked."
- India. However, with the Dalai Lama living in India, the Indians are not keen for the Tibetan pot to boil over into India. This is because India wants stress-free relations with China.
- This is part of a larger strategy designed to encircle China: North Korea is not going well for the Americans, while Japan is dying a slow death. Thank heavens that Taiwan's election results were favorable. America now wants to help Vietnam. And America is putting nuclear missile shields into Russia's nether regions. That is what I mean that America is circling the wagons around China.
3. Insides and Outsides
- Another point fueling Tibet flames is that the US is a domestic mess, what with sub-prime and elections.
- Thus, when things get messy on the inside, politicians invariably get nasty on the outside - in order to deflect criticism for their domestic stupidities - anywhere, not just in America! Tibet plays into this hand.
4. Market Implications
- The Economic Time™ keeps worsening in America. This means that U.S. markets will continue their volatility.
- That market volatility gets fanned worldwide because we all are linked psychologically - now more than ever, courtesy of the internet.
- Finally, China's markets already are down 2x more than America's, so if the Tibetan pot does boil over into China, then watch their markets take an even greater drubbing. Hong Kong and Taiwan cannot be excluded from this.
- All of which suggests that things are not so different this time around.
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This article has 14 comments:
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Mr. Zhao
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8 Comments
Mar 26 03:29 PM-
User 142738
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103 Comments
Mar 26 04:27 PM-
User 168651
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1 Comment
Mar 26 06:53 PM-
CarlosSlim
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120 Comments
My Website
Mar 26 07:07 PMPresident John Sidney McCain III may disagree with this speculation.
Senator McCain has a reputation for seeking revenge against his enemies.
He spent five and a half years as a Vietnamese POW, including periods of torture.
Did anyone stop Bush when he pulled soldiers and resources out of Afghanistan and began massing them on the border of Iraq?
No.
Think Nancy, et. al will stand up to "Mac Daddy" and say "no" when he suddenly wants to invade Vietnam?
American taxpayers will pay for his royal revenge, just as we are doing for Saddam once planning to assasinate Bush's daddy.
It's all about payback and using American soldiers as pawns in a giant Military Industrial Complex game of chess.
Revenge is a dish best served cold.
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SaveTheRupublic
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20 Comments
Mar 26 07:29 PMChina has trouble and it will effect the Chineese markets as well as the rest of the world's markets and it's Nancy Pelosi's fault?
I think I'm actually stupidier after reading this than I was 5 minutes ago.
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Big Mouse
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8 Comments
Mar 26 09:32 PMTibetans can get extra 8 points in China university entry exams (like SAT in US), but a gap of one or two points have been ruining many Han Chinese. Suicides for exam failure are not news (though rarely reported).
Economically, Tibet is a burden.
If they want independence, get out and get away.
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John L.
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19 Comments
Mar 26 11:37 PMIt all goes to prove that when a country becomes powerful, they are going to do stupid things that don't make any sense to anyone and somehow they convince the pubic that it is the "right" thing. Then, they are afraid to change course when things don't go as planned.
The US in Iraq is another example of this stupidity. Economically, we will never see any payback from this war and it is a major reason why the US economy is sinking since the gov't needs to print money to pay for men, materials and machinery to continue this war.
I am sure China feels the same way about Tibet. Luckily for them, the "Tibetan War" is not as costly for them as the Iraq war for China, otherwise China would have pulled out of Tibet a long time ago.
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zenalgorithm
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158 Comments
Mar 26 11:43 PM-
User 168752
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2 Comments
Mar 27 03:08 AM-
semuren
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23 Comments
Mar 27 09:40 AM-
Rajiv Sethia
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11 Comments
Mar 27 11:48 AM-
User 168752
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2 Comments
Mar 27 03:16 PM-
semuren
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23 Comments
Mar 28 07:50 AMAs for user 168752’s comments, statements like “Tibet which has been part of China since the 12th century” parrot overly simplistic party-state rhetoric – that dominates the public sphere and educations systems in the PRC – and is based on the highly dubious assumption that state and ethnicities are the same sorts of entities now that they were in the very distant past. It does, though, reflect the view of the “man on the Beijing bus,” along with the idea that Tibetans don’t bathe, carry knives and are in need of being “civilized.”
On the other hand, as user 168752 points, righteous indignation at China over the Tibet issue is sort of selective. I suspect that the Sikkim issue actually has more to do with the fact that the vast majority of the Sikkim population was similar to groups in India and different from the Sikkim monarchy. However, one might ask why Myanmar gets all the bad press it does while China is spared this level of Western critical comment. Perhaps it has something to do with the potential money to be made in China and its sheer size.
I think the only value for investors this discussion has is to remind them that China’s political economy is NOT like that in the West or Japan, despite superficial similarities in the physical appearance of urban financial centers. While the HK markets are at an international standard of transparency and operation, companies based in the PRC, wherever they are listed, have to deal with this aspect of political risk. Of course, this is not qualitatively different from many other investing environments. Even in the US one has to now worry about how the Fed might next change the rules of the game
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delacroixP
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8 Comments
My Website
Mar 31 03:24 AMChinas support for 'progress and development' in Tibet (monster railway, internet, tourism, etc) may have benefitted the average Tibetan little... but it has certainly let them realize that life could be a whole lot better.
Perhaps the Tibetans have finally woken to the greatness of their own potential and possibilities for the future (surely, thriving is better than surviving).
Note
Tibet had become a bit of a sleepy hollow and somewhat backward by the time of the Chinese invasion of 1953.
Chinese 'shock therapy' was certainly severe but it may well have been instumental in re-kindling Tibetan participation in the wider world of 'life and living'.