Corn Ethanol Can Never Replace Meaningful Quantities of Motor Fuel
Corn ethanol will never replace any meaningful quantities of gasoline nor diesel.
The math isn’t hard, but there are lots of zeroes:
In 2007:
- 92.9 million U.S. acres of corn were planted
- 86 million were actually harvested
- 155 bushels per acre (average rate for 2007)
- 13.2 billion bushels of American corn
Convert it ALL to ethanol (for laughs). Realistically, 7.2 billion gallons of ethanol were produced in 2007 using 20% of the U.S. corn crop.
14 billion bushels of corn (rounded from 13.2) with 2.8 gallons of ethanol per bushel gives us 39.2 billion gallons of American corn ethanol (becomes the 85% component of E85).
Realistically, it is predicted that we will produce 13 billion gallons of ethanol in 2008 with 30-40% of corn crop.
So we have 39.2 billion gallons of ethanol (becomes the 85% component of E85).
75,700 BTUs per gallon of ethanol gives us 2,967 trillion BTUs of energy available from the ethanol component and 6.9 billion gallons of gasoline (becomes the 15% component of E85).
115,000 BTUs per gallon of gasoline gives us 794 trillion BTUs available from the gasoline component.
2,967 + 794 = 3,761 trillion (3.761 quadrillion or "quads") BTUs total from 100% of the corn crop made into E85 (for a total of 46 billion gallons of ethanol and gasoline made into E85 per year).
Forget ethanol for a minute. The U.S. normally consumes:
- 150 billion gallons of gasoline burned per year
- 115,000 BTUs per gallon
- 17,250 trillion of gasoline BTUs
- 60 billion gallons of diesel burned per year
- 130,500 BTUs per gallon
- 7,830 trillion of diesel BTUs
17,250 + 7,830 = 25,080 trillion (25.1 quads) total BTUs consumed burning gasoline and diesel per year in the U.S.
So, we find that:
Only 15% (3,761/25,080) of gasoline and diesel BTUs can be replaced by E85 using every kernel of U.S. corn -- all of it.
Meanwhile, we have no food. We are starving, all the animals we eat are starving (50% of corn is animal feed), and the rest of the world is starving because we have no corn to export (if they all don't go to war with us first).
In reality, ethanol (spark ignition) will not substitute for diesel (compression ignition) anyway without substantial vehicle and fuel changes. Ethanol will not easily substitute for heating oil nor jet fuel neither. And if you add in ALL the energy-related inputs, some have said we may be able to replace, at best, 3-4% of U.S. gasoline using all U.S. corn
Corn ethanol will never displace any meaningful quantities of gasoline nor diesel.
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This article has 17 comments:
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jacamar
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8 Comments
Mar 27 08:05 AM-
Forward Observer
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4 Comments
Mar 27 09:11 AM-
User 168889
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3 Comments
My Website
Mar 27 10:09 AMPlease ...
We the byproduct of ethanol production is distillers grains which is used as a high protein feed for those "starving" animals you cite. In 2007 we used about 25% of the corn produced for ethanol however, there was a 15% increase in corn production compared to 2006 so that means 10% of the "normal" corn stock was really used.
The rest of the world is starving - I guess you mean free food we give away to countries like Africa? To my recollection African children have been starving my entire lifetime unfortunately. Ethanol has only become a favorable scape goat recently.
Now there is talk of fantastical wars over ethanol and starving nations. Last I checked it is petrol dollars funding the enemies of the US and the real wars today are being fought over the ever depleting resource called crude oil.
Please get you facts straight before peddling propaganda about American made energy. It is getting ridiculous how there is an echo chamber of disinformation and out right lies about bio-fuels that is being spread about like wild fire like a disinformation campaign. I wonder who has a vested interest in undermining the bio-fuels industry?
Is this a concerted effort so people can feel better gassing up at $4.00 a gallon so their petrol dollars can help fund Jihad and we can pay for the rope to hang ourselves?
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Charlie Peters
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34 Comments
Mar 27 12:06 PM* Some folks think so
* Clean Air Performance Professionals
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Dunco
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1 Comment
Mar 27 12:11 PM-
Scott Benson
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37 Comments
Mar 27 12:23 PM-
Shenandoah
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15 Comments
Mar 27 01:39 PMLike everyone who talks fuel versus food he completely ignores the fact that corn conversion to ethanol only affects the carbohydrate portion of the grain and has as 17 lbs of high protein byproduct for each bushel of corn it uses. Large extra amounts of croplands dedicated to biofuels could actually create a protein glut.
He seems to think that there is not more land to grow crops in the US. The Government has over 39 million acres in set aside where it is paying farmers not to grow crops.
Ignores the skyrocketing advances in technology that the biotechnology and agricultural sectors are bringing to biofuels
2007 average bush corn/acre was 155, but those using modern techniques were getting 200. Monsanto is promising over 300 bushels in the future.
Conversion to alcohol was 2.4 gallons per bushel in the 1980’s but is now averaging 2.9 on it’s way to 3+
Saab has already built a car that takes advantage of the superior combustion properties of ethanol to get equivalent gas mileage to gasoline.
Considers the $16.8 billion knocked off our import bill in 2007 as insignificant
What is behind this seemingly purposeful effort to put down the only game in town that can move us forward? No one has ever said that ethanol from corn will replace all petroleum product-why even discuss the subject? It is a very powerful first step to work out infrastructure issues associated with our unacceptable status.
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Ellis
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1 Comment
Mar 27 02:52 PM-
Scott Benson
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37 Comments
Mar 27 04:37 PM-
c300man
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8 Comments
Mar 27 04:40 PMIf we would get our heads out the sand and support and promote nuclear to become a much more significant part of our nations electrical supply we could then gradually switch to a high percentage of electric-battery powered cars and small trucks. The approval times and regulatory hurdles for new nuclear plants are rediculus. A standard plant design should be used. The scare of nuclear waste disposal is way overblown also.
Let us use the power of the atom!
c300man
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mus302
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4 Comments
My Website
Mar 28 03:58 AMAnd why are you adding in diesel consumption? Has anybody ever suggested that ethanol would replace diesel?
You yourself said that ethanol isn't a very good replacement for distillates. Then why compare ethanol to distillate usage instead of biodiesel?
I notice that when you say that ethanol could only replace 3-4% after taking out all energy related inputs, you are assuming that no energy is needed to create gasoline. The amount of energy replaced would be higher than what you state since if you replace a gallon of gallon you eliminate the energy needed to produce it.
And as far as no food being left afterwards, there would still be distillers grains left.
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mtman
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1 Comment
Mar 28 07:51 AM-
31456
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1 Comment
Mar 28 10:24 AM<< ... the byproduct of ethanol production is distillers grains which is used as a high protein feed for those "starving" animals you cite. >>
and then concludes with the plea:
<< Please get you facts straight before peddling propaganda about American made energy.... I wonder who has a vested interest in undermining the bio-fuels industry? >>
Interesting points .... particularly that one about propaganda. Guess one person's 'facts" are another's "propaganda"... eh?
But speaking of propaganda, do you merely "overlook" or don't you know that high protein distiller's grain you tout cannot be fed and cannot be used as a complete ration to feed animals?
Beef cattle can consume no more than ~40% distiller's grain in their feed ration; dairy cows slightly less; swine and poultry no more than ~10%. These differences derive from the very significant differences in the digestive system of bovines vs the less complex systems of these other species. These data are from current animal nutrition research facts; not propaganda.
Further, consider that for every bushel of distiller's grain a beef animal will then also require about 2 bu of other whole grain-based components. Thus as a means of disposal of this so-called "co-product"... the more distiller's grain that is shunted into the livestock feedlots, the more whole grain is required to help dispose of it in the feedlot.
The math is pretty simple: (1 bu distillers grain requires 2 bu of other grains for disposal). This suggests there's a fundamental problem here biofuels hypesters probably would just as soon not discuss.
But fear not, maybe we can import grain from South America to feed out livestock on the "co-product" if the biofuel industry really takes off.
Oh there's one more rub about disposal of 'co-product" distiller's grain: The stuff is wet and warm and so it is readily susceptible to rapid spoilage unless it is used very locally. Otherwise it must be shipped in a partially dry or fully dried form. Intersetingly most of the nation's feedlots are now far distant from the the locations of Midwestern ethanol plants. So now we're into either moving the feedlots or the 'co-product".....
But, wait, doesn't drying and cross-country shipment of 'co-product" require MORE ENERGY?
Recent reports on the economics of corn-based ethanol plants indicate that about 40% of the energy used by these ethanol plants is used to dry distiller's grain. Doubtlkless even more to haul the stuff to feedlots in the SW and West.
Which all just proves yet again the old adage about: There ain't no free lunch .....
That despite what the Renewable Fuels Assoc and the National Corn Grower's Assoc, The Farm Bureau, and similar organizations apparently want us to believe...
Guess maybe what constitutes "propaganda" largely depends upon who is feeding at the trough, eh?
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TAS
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82 Comments
My Website
Mar 28 01:32 PM-
mus302
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4 Comments
My Website
Mar 28 11:42 PM"But speaking of propaganda, do you merely "overlook" or don't you know that high protein distiller's grain you tout cannot be fed and cannot be used as a complete ration to feed animals?"
Do you know of any animal that can live completely on any one single feed ration? Not even corn is fed 100%.
"Further, consider that for every bushel of distiller's grain a beef animal will then also require about 2 bu of other whole grain-based components. Thus as a means of disposal of this so-called "co-product"... the more distiller's grain that is shunted into the livestock feedlots, the more whole grain is required to help dispose of it in the feedlot."
Since most beef rations include corn, hay and soybean meal does that mean that feeding corn requires these other ingredients to get rid of it?
"But fear not, maybe we can import grain from South America to feed out livestock on the "co-product" if the biofuel industry really takes off."
You do realize that we export more corn than any other country in the world produces except China. We also are the number 2 exporter of soybeans, behind Brazil and we export 50% of the wheat that we grow.
Further, if you look at the facts on corn production you realize that in 2007 because of the increased acreage devoted to corn there was more corn leftover after ethanol was produced than the entire corn harvest in 2006.
"The math is pretty simple: (1 bu distillers grain requires 2 bu of other grains for disposal). This suggests there's a fundamental problem here biofuels hypesters probably would just as soon not discuss."
Using your logic then, please tell us all how many btus are required to dispose of the coproducts of gasoline production. You know the distillates (diesel, home heating oil, jet fuel), the heavier oils that get made into lubricating oils, and the tars that go into road construction.
"Oh there's one more rub about disposal of 'co-product" distiller's grain: The stuff is wet and warm and so it is readily susceptible to rapid spoilage unless it is used very locally. Otherwise it must be shipped in a partially dry or fully dried form. Intersetingly most of the nation's feedlots are now far distant from the the locations of Midwestern ethanol plants. So now we're into either moving the feedlots or the 'co-product"........
A recent UNL study was just released that shows that mixing dry materials makes it possible to store wet distillers grains.
www.cattlenetwork.com/...
"Guess maybe what constitutes "propaganda" largely depends upon who is feeding at the trough, eh?"
It is funny that you use the word propaganda since the fact that you to suggest that we will become grain importer if ethanol production continues. You also make a big deal about the energy associated with drying and transporting distillers grains even though such things are taken into consideration in energy balance studies. And you try to portray distillers grains as a waste product when clearly it has feed value.
So basically you play on fears and use misconceptions in an attempt to sway perception. Isn't that propaganda?
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rickrents
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11 Comments
Apr 01 05:30 PM-
Scott Benson
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37 Comments
Apr 02 02:07 PM