Explaining the Mortgage Meltdown
I have been involved in the mortgage industry for nearly 15 years in the following capacities: fee appraiser, staff appraiser for savings and loan, underwriter for savings and loan, underwriting/processing manager for a local bank and, currently for the past 4 years, as a review appraiser analyst for a mortgage due diligence company. My particular job is reviewing collateral related issues, i.e. perform desk reviews of appraisal reports. During these past 15 years, I have accumulated a myriad of experience which lends creditability to my opinions.
The government is now left with the task of cleaning up problems and, in many cases, fraud that resulted from excesses in the loosely regulated and fee-driven mortgage brokerage and appraisal industries. I will make recommendations on how to reform the system and thus avoid the misleading of borrowers, inflated valuations of properties and other abuses that have led to hundreds of thousands of foreclosures and related problems around our country.
First I will examine the roles of the players.
There is really no one person to blame for the current mess exacerbated by the subprime market. All players are responsible and need to strive to make corrections to avoid the current situation from re-occurring.
Our Economy
We live in the greatest country with the best market system that affords success to those who want to work and apply themselves. This means capturing the American Dream, which consists of home ownership. During the past 4 years, interest rates sank to all time lows, which meant that the availability of funds made to banks to lend was plentiful. The advent of these lowered rates acted a fuel to offer home ownership to those who couldn’t afford a home in the past; offered capital to builders to develop vacant land and build new communities; and offered ability of existing home homeowners to renovate their current homes, buy a second/vacation home and buy homes for investment purposes-to rent or fix up and re-sale. For the first time, real estate became a commodity, like trading a stock or buying pork bellies.
Lenders
The big institutional lenders, such as Countywide (CFC), Citibank (C), Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC) and Washington Mutual (WM), to name a few, saw the economic picture 4 years ago as an opportunity to maximize profits by extending credit and entered into a niche called subprime lending. This afforded the lenders to offer loans to persons with less than stellar credit ratings and persons were happy to accept since the subprime program was the only way for some to attain home ownership. The lenders were happy to make these loans due to increased profits derived by the additional fees and higher interest rates incurred.
The problem here begins with the lenders' internal risk management and oversight/underwriting, combined with thee various loan programs offered. With a subprime product, why would a lender offer a no income no asset verification program, with a maximum 100% combined loan to value [CLTV] on an owner occupied property and a 95% CLTV on a non owner occupied property? Yes, the fees and rates associated with this program are higher, but so is the risk. A subprime borrower has credit issues for a reason, so documenting income is very important.
The goal here is to make a sound loan decision which is based upon minimizing risk to make sure the borrower will make the loan payment. Not verifying one's income when there are past credit issues is not a fundamentally sound decision. The no income verification programs were designed as a streamlined method for quick qualification of those persons established in businesses that cannot prove their income, but have demonstrated an ability to save and have good credit. Over time, the program was expanded at the request of loan origination officials to apply to salaried individuals who can easily prove their income, and finally it was opened to the subprime borrower.
Also, the debts to income ratios were expanded to as high as 50%. This means that 50% of the borrower’s income is for the mortgage payment and all other debt (car loans, student loans, credit cards etc). These guidelines were created by loan origination and underwriting staffers and approved by senior bank management.
On the lending side of banking, the loan origination team drives the bus. Origination staffs are partially compensated on commissions generated by the number of loans funded, the loan processors are commissioned on the number of loans they process which close and in some situations the underwriters are paid a bonus on the number of loans reviewed regardless if the loans were approved or denied. The loan officers, including senior origination management, are typically in direct odds with underwriting. Many times as an underwriter, I or my fellow underwriters made decisions either to deny a loan, ask for certain stipulations to be supplied by the borrower to help make a better decision, or reduce the loan amount loan officers complained and senior origination personnel intervened and approved the loan. After all, loan volume requirements superseded sound underwriting decision making. This scenario happened on a regular basis.
Secondary Markets
With low interest rates and increased lending activity, which lead to increased profits for banks, credit rating agencies such as Fitch, Moody’s and Standard & Poor gave high ratings to so-called mortgage backed securities, which means investors gobbled up these securities, which in turn afforded the larger bank/mortgage companies the additional capital to lend.
Mortgage Brokers [MB]
This group of individuals has established relationships with a myriad of lenders in order to utilize various products lenders offer in an effort to match a borrower’s particular needs to the best program. In some situations, the MB has passed certain criteria standards approved by the lender and establishes a line of credit with the lender. The broker can originate, underwrite, close and fund the loan and then send the loan package to the lender who reviews it and, if accepted, the broker's line of credit is replenished with the loan amount plus a fee from the lender. These loans were reviewed by an independent due diligence company hired by the lender to “protect their interests”.
In other situations, the MB originates the loan, sends the loan file to the lender who underwrites the loan and, if the loan is approved, the lender closes the transaction and the broker is paid a fee. As the MB compensation is essentially 100% commissioned there is great pressure exerted by the MB on the lender to approve the loans submitted. Otherwise, the broker threatens to take the business elsewhere. In many instances, loans identified as having issues which were re-underwritten by the due diligence companies were still approved by institutional lenders.
There is legitimate MB and then there are those who bend the rules. This rule bending takes the form of fraud, falsifying income documents, placing borrowers in no income verification programs in order to take advantage of the lender since the borrower could not qualify for the loan if income was documented. Placing a naïve borrower into a subprime product to take advantage of increased fees when the borrower could qualify for a better rate with a lower payment occurred with some regularity.
Loan Programs
Proliferation of adjustable rate mortgages. These types of loans have been around for many years. The format of this loan is the borrower agrees to accept a low initial start rate with a low initial payment with the knowledge that after a specified period of time the interest rate will change based upon a specified index or formula. Usually at adjustment time the interest rate increases and the payment also increases. These loans are popular for persons knowing they will not stay in the property for longer than the initial rate period (1-5 years). Also, ARM products were used as fixed rates were at higher levels compared to ARM start rates.
Mortgage brokers were qualifying the borrower at the initial start rate (low rate), not at the fully indexed rate. Few borrowers could qualify at the higher fully indexed rate, so MB ignored this fact and used the lower rate. This is incorrect underwriting technique. When it came time for lenders to buy these loans, many were purchased, despite the concerns raised by due diligence companies; lenders accepted many of these incorrectly qualified loans rather than risk losing their MB client base. Many naive borrowers were placed in these loans due to the “fudged” income doc or entry into a stated income program where the income was incorrectly stated combined with an ARM program is a recipe for disaster. Recently, the media has portrayed this same scenario where the naive borrower was not prepared to make the higher payment once the loan adjusts. Investors/speculators who tired to flip a property and couldn’t are now stuck with making higher loan payments. Many have walked away from their properties. Already there is an abundance of real estate owned properties for sale. Many who bought properties in 2005 and 2006 (market climax time) with ARM products with initial rate periods of 2-3 years will be in for a big surprise soon upon receiving notice of the first adjustments. This could result in more REO properties flooding the market.
Appraisers
There is a special place in my heart for real estate appraisers as I stared out as an appraiser before becoming an underwriter and now my responsibility is collateral review where I review appraisal reports. The general scope of work assignment for a qualified residential real estate appraiser is to provide the lender a supportable/defensible estimate of market value of specific identified real estate. Like with any other professions most appraisers are hard working persons who take seriously their role in the mortgage process. Unfortunately a few have tainted the profession and it is not entirely their fault.
A real estate appraiser is an independent contractor. In most cases the appraisal report is ordered by the mortgage broker. Again remember if the loan isn’t approved and does not fund the broker does not get paid. For example if the loan program calls for an 80% loan (loan amount of $80,000) and the purchase price is $100,000, or a $100,000 value is needed for refinance purposes and the appraisal report indicates a market value of $85,000, the broker becomes very upset. Hence in the majority of instances the appraiser is pressured to “hit the number”. What type of pressure is applied you may ask. The broker will threaten to not send the appraiser any more work-essentially black listing the appraiser. No wonder why property values are inflated. This type of coercion doesn’t stop at the MB level. Currently there is a pending law suit in California where an institutional lender is being sued by an appraiser. In a nutshell the appraiser contends she was placed on an exclusionary list by a lender because she indicated a particular market was experiencing declining values. The lender didn’t want that indicated on the appraisal report and asked the appraiser to change the report to reflect stable values. The appraiser refused to do so. Why did the lender want the change, so when the loan was packaged into a security to be sold off on Wall Street the purchaser/investor would not accept the loan as part of the total securitized package due to the loan being in an area of declining values. Many appraisers simply will not associate themselves with these more unscrupulous MB and lenders. However it takes a strong will person with a diversified client base to withstand this type of pressure.
There is a common thread that binds together all of the above players and that is greed and the manipulation forcing persons to make bad decisions and or defraud the system for the sake of profits. The system is flawed due to the way compensation is delivered to the parties involved combined with a lack of state level and national oversight. Although I am not a fan of big government, it seems the private sector is not capable of self regulation and the government may be forced to intervene as by not doing so could result in a continuing circumstance of the current situation.
Suggestions
Both the mortgage broker and appraisal professions are currently state regulated. The federal governments should crackdown and force the states to raise licensing and educational standards (currently in effect in some states) and federal money is needed to insure the states have the manpower needed to better regulate and enforce state government monitoring agencies overseeing these professions. States should raise licensing fees in order to help offset the costs.
Appraisers need to be separated from the process and have a more independent status in an effort to eliminate the pressures from lenders/MB currently in effect. Appraisal Management Companies with no ties to lenders may be a step in the right direction; however the AMC should not be involved with setting the fee schedules for the appraisers work.
Banks are now tightening their guidelines, but it is essential that a more common sense approach to underwriting is needed and that includes requiring down payments (showing commitment to the property being purchased) and a return to a more conservative approach to qualifying debt ratios and eliminating no income verification loans for the sub prime borrower. Also qualifying the borrower at the low start rate should be eliminated at using the fully indexed rate should be the industry standard. This may cause a decline in loan volume but will also reduce potential foreclosures. This is something that has to be imitated internally as part of the bank’s risk management program. Compensation of employees involved in the mortgage process should be reviewed in order to de-emphasize commission status with emphasis on compensation for positive loan performance/quality of the loan submitted.
The federal government should mandate stronger disclosure of the interest rate, loan program and fee structure associating with both sub-prime, alt-A and A quality loans. Additional federal regulation is needed with regulators having the ability to examine mortgage broker operations as well as any “player” involved in the loan process from start to finish-this includes purchasers of mortgage backed securities. The regulatory entity needs to have the power to evoke binding disciplinary actions when wrong doing is identified and proven. The use of taxpayer monies to help “fix” the problem should be used only as a last resort. I think lenders should burden most of the costs.
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This article has 11 comments:
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Maniac in Motion
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22 Comments
Apr 06 06:23 AMThe big question is if government can cultivate a plan to encourage homebuyers to buy up the glut of foreclosure growth to offset deflating prices. If it's only a tax credit of $8,000... it's not going to save the neighbors who bought a home at $400,000, and is now worth $280,000. Why should anyone buy that? I know they're gonna foreclose too because who in the right mind would pay $400,000 in debt on a home worth $280,000? And that would further deflate prices. This is the US Picture.
Gov't needs to offer a tax credit carry-over to allow homebuyers to write off any depreciation experienced from their home purchase. That will encourage homebuyers to buy today. Until then, homebuyers will just sit on the sidelines.
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Maniac in Motion
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22 Comments
Apr 06 06:38 AMIf Congress doesn't fix the home pricing problem...
Everyone who bought a house from 2005-to-2008 will be upside-down. Anyone who is upside down and is on ARM CAN NOT refinance. Banks will rather let a foreclosure occur than refinance a mortgage with a borrower owing more than the home value.
If a borrower can't refinance, she will go to foreclosure.
These foreclosures will reduce property values, which will encourage homeowners to stop making mortgage payments since their house, too, is now upside down. And let's not forget those who opened home equity lines of credit to fully the furnish vacation home's Arizona room.
This would be a... material... downward... spiral.
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FRANK GUNNELS
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2 Comments
Apr 06 08:28 AMI say let the free market reign. If someone feels they were taken advantage of then let them hire a lawyer. The laws are already in place.
I VOTE NO BAILOUT FOR ANYONE.
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Chuck Allen
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8 Comments
My Website
Apr 06 08:47 AMThe present day lenders need to softly approach their delinquent borrowers to sell them on the idea of staying in their home until the market changes; markdowns are taken,etc., for the sake of security of the property.
However, most lenders are so "old school", they don't know how to be nice! All they see is a deadbeat borrower not making their payments.
Chuck Allen
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jimocarroll
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27 Comments
Apr 06 09:55 AM-
jimocarroll
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27 Comments
Apr 06 09:57 AM-
LukeHappy
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9 Comments
Apr 06 10:00 AMwww.tickerforum.org/cg...
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vaduz
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109 Comments
My Website
Apr 06 11:31 AM-
sumosama
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237 Comments
Apr 06 02:20 PM-
tcornelison
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95 Comments
Apr 07 08:51 AMYou have wrongly identified the MB in your scenario as the Mortgage Broker. In reality the firm you describe is a correspondent Mortgage Banker. The Mortgage Broker makes no underwriting decisions at all. They simply package an application and submit it to a lender for underwriting. The DD company is usually reviewing loans which have already been purchased by a wholesale lending organization from either a broker or correspondent lender (Mortgage Banking firm which the lender has delegated underwriting authority to). They may not have listened to you about your reviews, which they frequently did not, but the loan was already funded at that point. The failure was that many wholesale lenders are still not taking action against the violators. I have a friend who tells me horror stories about the loans she does DD on for a national mortgage lender also known for Auto loans.
The more authority a lender delegates down, the greater the risk of fraud going undetected. I notice that you carefully avoided discussing the appraiser's role in a large percentage of this fraud. If the regulators in California, Florida, Arizona and Nevada had forced appraisers to only use owner occupied purchase transactions for comps, the impact of the rapid (artificial) inflation of values could have been tempered.
In the future regulators in markets where speculative purchases exceed 15-20% of sales should enact flipping rules similar to but stricter than those in place with FHA. If you remove the speculative flipper you will see the laws of supply and demand accurately determine values which will adjust in difficult times but not plummet as we have seen.
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maestro of finance
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3 Comments
My Website
Apr 08 11:32 AM***
The problem with this is that this is NOT where it actually began. You hinted at it but completely overlooked it. Another reader mentioned Congress, which is half correct. However, none of these loans could be made under a free market banking system with such impunity.
The Federal Reserve dictates the short-term interest rates and also sets the standard for lending practices of member banks. Since banks are "insured" against loss, there is a loosening of lending guidelines - hence the fractional reserve system.
It's easy to blame the member banks because they have no alternative. If you're a bank, you come under certain rules and regulations. Of course, smaller banks don't take the risks of larger banks. For example, local credit unions or banks that do business only in a handful of counties in one particular State won't take on the same types of risky loans that a larger bank like Countrywide will.
Sometimes I think that some of the big shots in the banking and financial business believe that they are "too big to fail"...and maybe they are. With more regulation comes more alleged protection - for depositors AND the institution itself; protection from responsibility.
Get rid of the gyrating, arbitrary interest rates set by the Fed, and most of your reckless lending policies will be solved. Reckless banks will go out of business, but they'll still be rated appropriately by independent rating agencies.
It sounds harsh, but we are living the alternative. Does anybody really enjoy this?