Quick Graphical Look at Global House-Price Declines

by: Paul Kedrosky April 07, 2008    
Paul Kedrosky

Paul Kedrosky

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Nice figure in a current IMF paper on the global boom-bust cycle in residential real estate. Here we can compare what's been happening in a host of countries all finding real estate going off the rails at once: Denmark, Spain, the U.S. and Ireland are leading the way down. Most striking, at least to me, were the bubble-ish peaks put in in many non-U.S. countries. (Click to enlarge.)

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This article has 3 comments:

  •  
    Apr 07 02:19 PM
    The graph does not match the text. The text says "In a few countries - the United States and Ireland - house prices have fallen during the past year". They do a lousy job of captioning the chart, but it appears that they are charting year-to-year price changes. So...the only currently declining _prices_ are indeed the US and Ireland. It would be more correct to say that the rate of price _increases_ has declined significantly - starting with AU/UK in 2002/2003, and in the US in 2005. If the graph were not inflation-adjusted, then you could probably include Denmark and Spain.
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  •  
    Apr 07 05:10 PM
    Keith is absolutely right. This OECD chart shows housing markets still healthy. They are returning to historically sensible price rises of approximately 5% per year from bubble levels. Spain and Denmark are in the safe zone and UK and AU are still coming back from bubble territory. Only the US and Ireland are in declining!
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  •  
    Apr 08 01:19 PM
    You guys are daffy. eliminate the whole chart except the last half of 2007. Other than the two countries that have no data for that period, you see a fall in EVERY market. And the worst of it is THIS YEAR (so far).
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