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Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

by: David Fry August 14, 2008 | about stocks: DBA / DBB / DBC / DZZ / EEM / EFA / EWA / EWC / EWJ / EWZ / FXI / GLD / IFN / MOO / RSX / SLX / USO / XLE

David Fry

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<< Return to page 1 - Range-Bound Two-Step

That about covers the world methinks. So I made up for yesterday's absence. But, it was a beautiful day here in the Andes and a little stroll to the colonial center was a pleasant break. Besides I wanted to wait for yesterday's energy inventory data since prices and trends are much on investors' minds.

The beat goes on for financials. This shouldn't surprise. Losses according to a wide variety of sources are now put at over $500 billion from mortgage-related securities. Many experts suggest losses will rise to $1 trillion with economist Noriel Roubini predicting $2 trillion. Those are mind numbing numbers, aren't they?

There are continuing rumors of another major financial firm about to collapse. I have no idea whether this is true.

From a trading and investing perspective I fear a trading range environment more than any other circumstance. Should that occur the only defense is a heavy cash balance. For most portfolio managers, maintaining large cash balances is an anathema. Not for us.

Today more inflation data arrives, and don't forget options expiry on Friday. Have a pleasant evening.

Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains long or short positions in IWM, QQQQ, QLD, IGV, IGN, IBB, XLP, XLV, RXL, UUP, GLD, DZZ, DBC, DEE, USO and XLE.

Country Default Risk Rises Across the Board Dec 04, 2008
Country Estimated P/E Ratios and Dividend Yields Dec 04, 2008
A Fast Fall for the Russian Ruble Dec 04, 2008
Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets Dec 03, 2008
Brazil: One of the Best Opportunities in Emerging Markets Dec 03, 2008

Related Stocks:

DBA, DBB, DBC, DZZ, EEM, EFA, EWA, EWC, EWJ, EWZ, FXI, GLD, IFN, MOO, RSX, SLX, USO, XLE

This article has 5 comments:

Aug 14 05:01 AM
Agree maintain high cash and take a vacation unless there are compelling trades or else trade with controlled risks.
Reply
Aug 14 09:20 AM
There is no mention of SKF. Is it because it is not range-bound? Its volatity is extremely high.
Reply
Aug 14 10:43 AM
What does a double top signify? Does it technically mean that it is all downhill from here?
Reply
Aug 14 01:44 PM
I love GLD bouncing off support here. I'm back in the game!
Reply
Aug 14 11:27 PM
David, a little explanation please on how you draw those horizontal lines? Gracias, amigo...

kenbkb
Reply

More Comments on GLD »

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on Dec 03, 2008 | about EFA,EEM,DBC
Wednesday Outlook: Volatility on Steroids
on Dec 02, 2008 | about IYR,IWM,IEF
Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
on Dec 02, 2008 | about EEM,DBA,DBC

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