SPDR Lehman 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (BIL)
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- Report from the Bond War Frontlines [view article]
- Bond Expert: Monday Wrap [view article]
- Searching for the Best Bond ETF [view article]
- Bogleheads Takes on 'Sell in May and Walk Away' [view article]
- Bond Expert: Tuesday Outlook [view article]
- Treasury Market: Confounding the Nonbelievers [view article]
- Short Bond ETFs Get Short Shrift [view article]
- Ian McAvity on the Economy and Gold [view article]
- Why You Should Worry About Negative Short TIPS Spreads [view article]
- Does the Yield Curve Point the Way for Stocks? [view article]
- Ten Comments on the Fed [view article]
Recent BIL Articles
- Report from the Bond War Frontlines
- Bond Expert: Monday Wrap
- Searching for the Best Bond ETF
- Bogleheads Takes on 'Sell in May and Walk Away'
- Bond Expert: Tuesday Outlook
- Treasury Market: Confounding the Nonbelievers
- Short Bond ETFs Get Short Shrift
- Why You Should Worry About Negative Short TIPS Spreads
- Does the Yield Curve Point the Way for Stocks?
- Ian McAvity on the Economy and Gold
- Full List of Articles »
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Report from the Bond War Frontlines [view article]
The last sentence should read: They poorly reward tyhe investor... ReplyReport from the Bond War Frontlines [view article]
Duration is one of the critical variables in a bond fund. The longer durations have much more volatility, for now, not much extra yield. Ultimately it is a personal decision as to which yields and duration are best for your portfolio. Personally, I do not recommend any long term funds. They poorly reqard the investor for the increased risks and yield.Best wishes,
ray Reply
Report from the Bond War Frontlines [view article]
The most interesting bond ETFs on the market are PST and TBT. They offer a convenient way to get long exposure to profligacy, pandering, fraud, political incompetence, and central bank indiscipline. That combination of exposure in a single product is hard to beat. Most of the ETFs you mention have short exposure to these. I do not understand why anyone would want them. Replygin.net
Report from the Bond War Frontlines [view article]
Bond ETFs. What an exciting asset class. The fixed income market definitely lends itself to research, analysis, and alpha generation. The only reason to trade an ETF would be to specifically short sectors (say Treasuries or Mortgages) not have a Lehman Agg type of fund.www.beyondthemargin.ne... Reply
Bond Expert: Monday Wrap [view article]
John, thanks for the article, I'm trying to learn more about bonds in general. Do you also cover High Income and Tax Free's? I'm curious if the one is too risky now, and, or if it is too soon to get into the second? ReplyBond Expert: Monday Wrap [view article]
you dress up simple fear in very swanky motives:" hoping for a rate cut in the future?" Do they really invest on a hope such as that. I read your opinions and I appreciate the attempt to personify the bond buyers as real, living, breathing beings. They are not. In another life they would be bottom eaters or body snatchers like Pimco' undertakers who sort thru the dead (mortgages) to see what might be salvaged. Another's need to borrow becomes an opportunity for the scroungers. thanks for trying. ReplySearching for the Best Bond ETF [view article]
When writing a financial piece, make it a principle to avoid misspelling the word principal throughout the piece-- if you wish to be taken seriously. ReplySearching for the Best Bond ETF [view article]
excellent article and information, very educational and useful, thank youinflation, of course, is a more than valid concern re return – but assuming inflation will remain a problem forever is like assuming the stock market will rise or fall forever also
in a deflationary environment, which I believe is more an issue than most people do I think, these type funds of these type interest paying treasuries have been and would be in demand
the belief in perpetual inflation is useful for someone wanting or trying to create monetary dilution, keeping everyone focussed on spending and accepting inflation as normal
at my age, and thus for all practical purposes, this may be true :-) however, I tend to believe that deflation alternates w/inflation in our current fiat environment (and may well have under the various gold standards, I’m not sure)
thus, re the treasuries value, I think, like most everything else, they’ll vary over time
and gold is great, literally; but I tend to prefer it for insurance at this point, over any increase in value; the insurance being storage of value
and toilet paper (as per the commentator above), well, I try not to be out of it :-)
info re international treasury etf's would be interesting, esp if they were for countries w/as close a risk base to that of the u.s. as could be found
Reply
Searching for the Best Bond ETF [view article]
It would also help the credibility of the article and the author if the tickers referred to the correct ETFs. Pretty shallow analysis with a lot of padding.Also, where are the international treasury & international treasury inflation-linked ETFs? Reply
Searching for the Best Bond ETF [view article]
"Less clear of course is what specifically it will cost an investor to own a piece of this vast market and what that debt is worth in terms of some other asset (such as euro debt or gold)..."Or, say, the goods and services you typically buy - rent, food, fuel, electricity, water, clothing, etc. The bond market is obsessed with the "quality" of Treasuries - the certainty, as you point out, that there is no default risk. So what? If you hold an Argentine bond and the Kirchners default on it, how much bread can you buy with the total coupon + principal payments you received? If you hold a Treasury bond paying 4% while prices are rising 12%, how much bread can you buy with that? What if that 12% becomes 20%? That's all that matters: purchasing power. The certainty that you'll get your $1000 back 30 years from now is irrelevant. What will it be worth?
The market has forced real interest rates on even very long-duration debt deeply into negative territory. It's hard to imagine being sufficiently bearish on the world economy that one would be willing to eat 7% a year in lost coupon purchasing power and the substantial risk of capital loss just to avoid finding something better to do with the money. Buying toilet paper would be a better choice; you'll always need it and it isn't getting cheaper.
Long PST and TBT. Long gold. Other short Treasury positions. Reply
ter
Bogleheads Takes on 'Sell in May and Walk Away' [view article]
Mish...phaser set beyond stun (my headline)I put this quote from mish on my blog today... I find his view persuasive.
".....Credit Crunch Reaches Critical Mass...
Reply
Bogleheads Takes on 'Sell in May and Walk Away' [view article]
Enter back in November? Always thought it'd be more like September, after a nice 3 month summer vacation.Reply
Bond Expert: Tuesday Outlook [view article]
Good review. The markets are about adjust again, this time to lower yields, but soon that changes and we will lose money in bonds and stocks. That should be a bottom for a while until the fall plunge. ReplyTreasury Market: Confounding the Nonbelievers [view article]
The new bills issue was a surprise, but not unexpected. The offers of the GSE are what keeps everyone on edge. Who wants their equity when it is known holders will be stiffed if a shut down is needed to avoid government owership outright. This is classical government finance with Congress running loan policy and the agency hacks running the finances to pay the bills. It can not end well no matter what policy is selected. Credibility is the life blood of investment, and when its gone, its over. ReplyShort Bond ETFs Get Short Shrift [view article]
Don't even THINK about using closed-end funds when you now have so many legitimate ETF choices. CEFs are broadly manipulated. Try getting out of a CEF when the market turns south. Leave CEFs for the pump-and-dump brokerage firms who think all "clients" are simple marks. Reply