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All Comments on GKA

  • commenter
    yourgoldteet
    h
    Jun 02 01:15 AM
    Bond ETFs: Time to Stock Up, As Munis Yield More Than Treasuries [view article]
    Post busted CDOs I'm not sure I'd count on munis always being made good. I can't remember the exact circumstances, but the city of Birmingham almost went into default a few months ago. What was striking about it was not that they ran into trouble, it was that when the bondholders started making threatening noises, Birmingham told them, hey, back off. We're not going to cut staff just to make our bond payments.

    There was actually a quote along those lines from some city official. Maybe he was just the only one running for re-election

    I don't keep up with munis, but what's the plan for keeping credit ratings high now that two major insurers are gone? If their business had been viable seems like they'd still be around.

    Without somebody to take over that role munis yields might not be coming down as far or as fast as people think.

    In fact, if we get a few more Birminghams, and if they can't be bailed, they muni yields may be going up. If one of these cities actually defaults, maybe way up.

    In the brave new world created by the bankers munis may not look quite as attractive side to side with treasuries. At least you know, so far, that you're going to get your money back with treasuries.

    Did I miss something or did somebody come up with a plan on restoring bond insurance for munis? Without it risk premiums may start heading up if we start getting a few defaults.

    And Birmingham may not be the last in line to try that out.

    There's the matter of tax assessments. Anybody who walked away from his house isn't going to be paying taxes on it. And there are going to be plenty of people who had their assessments raised who won't be able to pay either - either because they lost, or will lose a job in the coming months, or because interest rates went up, or because it's time to make more than just interest only payments.

    The cities and states are going to have a hard time just delivering essential services

    We haven't seen the end of write offs from the banks, or any kind of real fallout from the end of the credit party. Just for the heck of it I'll accept the assumption that the U.S. isn't going to go into recession.

    There's still going to be fallout from the steadily increasing total on all those bank write offs and the tightening that's set in.

    Then there's inflation. The Fed seems to have figured out that there is inflation out there - and they're now making noises about no more cuts to stave it off. So there's no help for the hapless homeowner with his adjustable rate, or with stimulus to help him get reemployed if he loses his job. Hope he's got plenty socked away for house payments.

    Just because the Fed has decided that it is not going to acknowledge the contribution of the price of oil to the inflation rate doesn't mean that it is going to change the dynamics of what oil at current levels will do to the economy.

    If the price of oil doesn't come down and stay down soon the mood is going to get a little dark out in those subdivisions that take an hour to drive to work from.

    Maybe they can help move the houses out there by giving away one of those SUVs nobody wants to buy with each one purchased, and keep defaults down, so the folks'll still pay their taxes and the cities can make those bond payments.

    Maybe I've got this wrong, but I thought that the fundamental assumption behind mean reversion was that the world hasn't fundamentally changed. If the variables that affect price are essentially unchanged, then mean reversion should kick in.

    Maybe things haven't changed permanently, but the financial factors that caused the cracks that were heard round the world in the CDO business haven't gone away. Just because the Saudis aren' shovelling money into the banks this week and no major brokerage houses have imploded so far this quarter, I'm not sure we're out of the woods yet.

    I think we may end up wandering around in here for a while     Reply
  • commenter
    Lisa
    May 29 05:13 PM
    Ameristock to Close Five Failing Bond ETFs [view article]
    The ETF shake-out begins. Too many index ETFs are insufficiently differentiated. And some (GLD and IAU; SPY and IVV) are identical. Reply
  • commenter
    Richard
    Schweitzer
    May 05 09:43 AM
    Bond ETFs: Time to Stock Up, As Munis Yield More Than Treasuries [view article]
    One must keep in mind that in these articles, Tom Lydon is being INFORMATIVE, not advisory. If you want his (or his firm's) advice, it is available in a different format on other terms.

    If one looks at the technical charts on these securities, it is obvious that they have been and are being accumulated at steady rate, which generally exceeds their pricing trends. Thus, "assets" are building within the holdings of the funds.

    Tom is not saying the info indicates that these will provide good parking places every week, just that more people are parking here.

    Reply
  • commenter
    Ames
    Tiedeman
    Apr 27 05:20 PM
    My Website
    ETF Fund Revenues: A View from the Bottom [view article]
    Nice data! Thanks! Reply
  • commenter
    Longwave
    Apr 16 03:34 PM
    Bond ETFs: Time to Stock Up, As Munis Yield More Than Treasuries [view article]
    I'm worried that the unfunded state and municipal employee benefits will result in many of these governments defaulting on their bond obligations. Another factor affecting their ability to meet obligations is the inevitable decline in property tax revenues as the write-downs in housing values hits their tax roles. And I think it's safe to say that the rating agencies have their heads in the sand.I know most municipal bonds are insured, but we've learned from the sub-prime mortgage mess that the insurers themselves are in precarious situations. Reply
  • commenter
    silverspring
    Apr 15 10:30 PM
    Bond ETFs: Time to Stock Up, As Munis Yield More Than Treasuries [view article]
    Nice article, long long term muni, short short term treasury might be a good bet. Reply
  • commenter
    SeekingAlpha
    Editors
    Apr 06 05:22 AM
    My Website
    General Discussion on GKA
    Is this a buy or a sell? Reply
  • commenter
    EJW
    Mar 13 11:01 AM
    Why You Should Worry About Negative Short TIPS Spreads [view article]
    Yes on the bear-bull spread idea; see Hulbert in Barron's online week of 10 March.
    EJW     Reply
  • commenter
    flow5
    Feb 20 08:53 AM
    Ten Comments on the Fed [view article]
    I'm an inveterate Fed watcher. I’ve never lost trading T-Bond futures (since July 79). M1, M2, & MZM started expanding after the 3/4 point drop in the FFR. M3 is mud pie. Merkel's M3 (bank credit proxy) is an excellent surrogate. Milton Friedman's "high powered money" (monetary base) has never been a "base" for the expansion of the money supply. Ben Shalom Bernanke is the coolest dude since William McChesney Martin, Jr. Bernanke is brilliant. The dollar (exchange value) is eternally doomed. For the yield curve & counter-party credit risks (Merkel’s the man). The TAF is the precursor of the Lombard Facility scheduled under the “Financial Services Regulatory Relief Act of 2006.”A reduction in bank capital is also stamped under this Act. There’s no scholar on the Great Depression. Unbeknownst to virtually everyone, it is mathematically impossible to miss economic forecasts. Reply
  • commenter
    Long-Short
    Guy
    Jan 26 05:12 PM
    Which Treasury Bond Should I Buy? [view article]
    Any thoughts on (a) TIPS and (b) the new foreign treasury bond ETF (BWX)? Reply
  • commenter
    ebi2505
    Jan 24 04:30 AM
    The Fed Capitulates, But Will It Help? [view article]
    The Fed's recent cut of 75bps confirmed the market fear and do not restore confidence. The current global assets bubble (property) needs to correct itself. Inflation has to be controlled. I believe we are heading for a stagflation, where monetary policy is faced with a rising inflation and weak economic growth. The Fed should let the market correct itself. What happen to 'laissez faire'? Reply
  • commenter
    eddy
    Jan 22 10:37 AM
    The Fed Capitulates, But Will It Help? [view article]
    Today, I'm going for both mediocre! Reply
  • commenter
    Alpha Seeker
    Jan 22 10:34 AM
    The Fed Capitulates, But Will It Help? [view article]
    Are you trading or writing?
    It's impossible to do both well.
     Reply
  • commenter
    Stephen Ngai
    Jan 22 09:57 AM
    The Fed Capitulates, But Will It Help? [view article]
    It helps but a couple days late.

    If Mr. Bernanke announced this 0.75% rate cut last week, there might not be the Monday & Tuesday global market melt down especially Japan, India & Hong Kong.

    I hate the set up of this melt down by those institutions.
    Reply
  • commenter
    Reinko
    Jan 22 09:15 AM
    The Fed Capitulates, But Will It Help? [view article]
    With 14 minutes to go until the trading session starts one thing is clear: Bernanke is a coward and a weasel. Why not sell the guy to the Iraqis? Reply
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