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- The Real Secret to Fractional Banking [view article]
- The Yield Curve and Investor Sentiment (Part II) [view article]
- Credit Spreads Continue to Get Worse [view article]
- Wednesday Outlook: Low Volume Storm? [view article]
- The Yield Curve and Investor Sentiment (Part I) [view article]
- The Return of Extreme Bullishness? [view article]
- I.O.U.S.A. [view article]
- War in Georgia: How Markets May Feel the Effects [view article]
- High Yield Credit Spreads at Post Bear Stearns High [view article]
- Why I'm Against Fixed Income ETFs [view article]
- Fixed Income: Little Value in Treasuries, Preferred Financials Yielding 8% [view article]
- U.S. Session Wrap: Meredith Whitney Does It Again [view article]
loading ...Recent IEF Articles
- The Yield Curve and Investor Sentiment (Part III)
- Thursday Outlook: Grab Your Paintbrush
- Corporate / Treasury Credit Spreads: How the Markets Are Pricing Risk
- The Yield Curve and Investor Sentiment (Part II)
- The Real Secret to Fractional Banking
- Wednesday Outlook: Low Volume Storm?
- Credit Spreads Continue to Get Worse
- The Yield Curve and Investor Sentiment (Part I)
- Tuesday Outlook: Pre-Labor Day Malaise
- The Return of Extreme Bullishness?
- Full List of Articles »
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Bust, Bail, Repeat: The U.S. Enters into an Ever-Worsening Cycle [view article]
So I read here that the American people are just as much at fault as the politicians and financial wheelers and dealers. What a sick joke. Congressional flim flam artists such Phil Gramm managed to get regulations tossed that paved the way for this mess.Wall Street saw a window of opportunity and was perfectly willing to pile on and then drive off with truck loads of money. The hyenas in the "loan industry" enticed the gullible public in to signing on the dotted line and Alan Greenspan piously blessed the whole travesty. Now that he's comfortably behind the theater curtain along with those former CEO's and their golden parachutes Greenspan can take a different perspective, evidently imagining that no one will remember the part he played in letting any semblance of financial stability crash to the ground.
The general public, the average person, will rarely fail to be gullible in the kind of atmosphere that prevailed over the past ten years. When there is no sensible regulatory framework in place and virtually nobody in a position of responsibility publicly questions what is going on how are they to know? Why do you think this kind of thing happens again and again?
The unfettered "free market" has once again lead us to disaster because Congress repealed laws and shredded regulations which would have prevented this farce. Yes, they're to blame, along with all of the corporate owned K Street prostitutes that beguilingly turn their heads.
As for Larry Kudlow and his sophomoric cheerleading, he symbolizes the dismal mess. What a maroon. Reply
Weekly Review and Outlook: Deleveraging's Not Just for I-Banks [view article]
Please write concise articles. If I wished to be entertained, I could watch Cramer. ReplySearching for the Best Bond ETF [view article]
excellent article and information, very educational and useful, thank youinflation, of course, is a more than valid concern re return – but assuming inflation will remain a problem forever is like assuming the stock market will rise or fall forever also
in a deflationary environment, which I believe is more an issue than most people do I think, these type funds of these type interest paying treasuries have been and would be in demand
the belief in perpetual inflation is useful for someone wanting or trying to create monetary dilution, keeping everyone focussed on spending and accepting inflation as normal
at my age, and thus for all practical purposes, this may be true :-) however, I tend to believe that deflation alternates w/inflation in our current fiat environment (and may well have under the various gold standards, I’m not sure)
thus, re the treasuries value, I think, like most everything else, they’ll vary over time
and gold is great, literally; but I tend to prefer it for insurance at this point, over any increase in value; the insurance being storage of value
and toilet paper (as per the commentator above), well, I try not to be out of it :-)
info re international treasury etf's would be interesting, esp if they were for countries w/as close a risk base to that of the u.s. as could be found
Reply
Searching for the Best Bond ETF [view article]
It would also help the credibility of the article and the author if the tickers referred to the correct ETFs. Pretty shallow analysis with a lot of padding.Also, where are the international treasury & international treasury inflation-linked ETFs? Reply
Stock vs. Bond Valuations [view article]
Why is the ratio of 1.0 "fairly valued"? Shouldn't equities have a higher earnings yield (equity risk premium) due to their volatility?And shouldn't you be comparing real yields (less inflation)?
Reply
Searching for the Best Bond ETF [view article]
"Less clear of course is what specifically it will cost an investor to own a piece of this vast market and what that debt is worth in terms of some other asset (such as euro debt or gold)..."Or, say, the goods and services you typically buy - rent, food, fuel, electricity, water, clothing, etc. The bond market is obsessed with the "quality" of Treasuries - the certainty, as you point out, that there is no default risk. So what? If you hold an Argentine bond and the Kirchners default on it, how much bread can you buy with the total coupon + principal payments you received? If you hold a Treasury bond paying 4% while prices are rising 12%, how much bread can you buy with that? What if that 12% becomes 20%? That's all that matters: purchasing power. The certainty that you'll get your $1000 back 30 years from now is irrelevant. What will it be worth?
The market has forced real interest rates on even very long-duration debt deeply into negative territory. It's hard to imagine being sufficiently bearish on the world economy that one would be willing to eat 7% a year in lost coupon purchasing power and the substantial risk of capital loss just to avoid finding something better to do with the money. Buying toilet paper would be a better choice; you'll always need it and it isn't getting cheaper.
Long PST and TBT. Long gold. Other short Treasury positions. Reply
The Highest Yielding Cash Products [view article]
"Remember that in the short term, cash can indeed be king. But in the long term, cash is almost sure to lose purchasing power because of inflation."But any investment vehicle that actually loses money, such as stocks and housing in recent years, is sure to lose purchasing power even faster...
In other words, this long period of retrenchment and deflation may well become a game of "see who can lose the least," rather than make the most. In other words, capital preservation is king.
Reply
The Highest Yielding Cash Products [view article]
Come on, Corrado, let the rest of us in on it.....Maybe we'll choose to become alien! ReplyStromeyer Jr
Stock vs. Bond Valuations [view article]
bearfund, I should have been more explicit. What I meant is that the *core* rate of inflation was abnormally high during the 1970s compared with the past century. Paul Volcker finally took care of this problem and then the core rate trended lower and has stayed relatively low since then.Note that over long periods of time in the U.S. economy that the headline rate of inflation has converged towards the core rate.
Disclosure: short 10 year Treasuries since a yield of 3.52 Reply
The Highest Yielding Cash Products [view article]
I confirm what Netcash said on E*Trade, very valuable especially if you are a non resident alien .... i won't say why but those who are have certainly a big smile on their faces while reading this...Corrado
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Great brands - up to 80% off retail Reply
Kasparov
The Highest Yielding Cash Products [view article]
E-Trade is also pretty nice. Their savings account is 3.30%. What I like is that I can swiftly move everything to my eTrade brokerage account and then use the cash to instantly trade. When waiting on the sidelines I can then move everything instantly back to my savings account.Disclosure: I have an eTrade account. Reply
Stock vs. Bond Valuations [view article]
What difference does it make whether you say "interest rates are too low" (i.e. Treasuries are too high) or stocks are too low? The course of action they indicate (if you accept the indicator) is the same: sell Treasuries, buy stocks. ReplyStock vs. Bond Valuations [view article]
James Cullen gets the prize.And Charlie, uhhh... exclude the 1970s because inflation was abnormally high? Is it not abnormally high now? And if not - perhaps you think 5% is a normal baseline - why not exclude the 1990s when it was abnormally low?
Furthermore, despite very high inflation today, the back half of the Treasury curve has done well. No, I do not know why. No, I do not care. This is an anomaly and the market will in time correct it. Reply
Stock vs. Bond Valuations [view article]
nice analysis. wonder how this chart would look if financials are excluded from S&P 500... Is it the huge -ve earnings from financials leading to a closing in the valuation gap? ReplyStock vs. Bond Valuations [view article]
you should add a colored band for "periods of terror" ie credit crunches -- when people flee to treasuries and the normal spread behavior does not applyFor example....now Reply