iShares Lehman 7-10 Year Treasury (IEF)

All Comments on IEF

  • commenter
    Jay Jay
    Dec 19 11:59 PM
    Fed's Proposed Lending Rules Ignite Fierce Debate [view article]
    I support the idea of taking pwer awa from he central bank, but not if it means placing it in the hands of blow hards like Dodd. When are we going to learn that the market can price better than beurocrats? Reply
  • commenter
    Michael
    Davey
    Dec 19 03:19 PM
    Market Set to Reverse Losses Tuesday [view article]
    The Street rang a bell yesterday and suddenly it is not merely the solar stocks kicking higher.

    The smaller, broader indices (Russell 2000 and NYSE) kicked-in and look to be forming nice W-bottom patterns. If that completes (it will, look at the calendar right now), this implies a run of the smaller arena through and into January. I’m well in-line for the early bird specials and intriguingly there are too many good looking names to buy them all…charts are looking good now.
     Reply
  • commenter
    Pangaea
    Dec 19 11:25 AM
    The Great Fed Rate Cutting Myth: Look Out Below [view article]
    hillcrestln -

    I could be wrong, but I don't think the current U.S. condition and structural issues are very comparable to 1995/1996...

    Reply
  • commenter
    tjschoenlein
    Dec 16 09:30 PM
    Surging Volatility Could Bring Lots of Surprises [view article]
    I need a helping hand. Can someone explain, very simply please,
    Is it the right time to put money into a bond ETF? The amount will be large. I have always use stocks as my investment vehicle.. but.. I'm retiring in 3 months and I need to set up an allocation portfolio.
    I've always been a risk taker but now I need to slow down a bit.
    Any help from the pro's out there would be greatly appreciated.
    Thanks     Reply
  • commenter
    Thomas Kee
    Dec 16 06:26 AM
    My Website
    The Great Fed Rate Cutting Myth: Look Out Below [view article]
    I won't comment on all posts here, but in general...

    The Fed did not start the Target Rate until 1997. This analysis stems from the beginning of the Fed offering a target rate.

    Since then there are disctinct correlations. The above charts show that. They need not be exact, but they are good indicators, that's the point. If you can identify the turning points in the Fed Funds rate you can usually do the same in the Market.     Reply
  • commenter
    Michael B.
    Krause
    Dec 14 12:12 PM
    My Website
    Why Treasuries Are the Way to Go in This Market [view article]
    Leo: This is a search for appreciation trade, not a yield hunting one. Preferred stock purchases (or corporate bonds) have considerably higher downside in the event a recession occurs (as they take corporate risk). If recession happens (and inevitable increase of defaults associated with that), corporate debt credit spreads will rise and offset some of the gains in the underlying treasury position. (recall corporate debt = treasury of equiv duration + credit spread)

    Furthermore, a yield curve inversion with a recession will enable the longer duration note and bond to fall past fed targets. So even if the fed stops at 3.5%, a flight to quality could enable the long yield to hit 2.5-3.2% just as easily.

    Obviously its hard to imagine 2.5% 10 yr notes with the PPI and CPI #s we are seeing right now, but a global slowdown could turn this commodity based inflation move an opposing direction. Expect some volatility of PPI/CPI #s. I wouldn't be surprised to see negative CPI/PPI y/y (12 mos from now) if the consumer and world growth continue to slow. Then 2.5% yields are more palatable, aren't they?
    Reply
  • commenter
    Rocktex
    Dec 13 06:16 PM
    Greenspan: Large Losses Loom [view article]
    He (Mr. G) cautions the current credit crisis will not end until huge inventories of new homes are sold, and home-price deflation ceases. ......... Very large losses will, no doubt, be taken as a consequence of the crisis. But after a period of protracted adjustment, the U.S. economy, and the world economy more generally, will be able to get back to business."

    Gee! He is really a genius and finally gives us his real words and the real medicine.
    Reply
  • commenter
    Kunst
    Dec 13 05:49 PM
    Does Greater Risk Always Lead to a Bigger Payoff? [view article]
    "Does Greater Risk Always Lead to a Bigger Payoff?"

    Huh? What would be the risk if a greater payoff were assured?     Reply
  • commenter
    chagrinned1
    Dec 13 03:17 PM
    Greenspan: Large Losses Loom [view article]
    Our best scenario in the USA is that Greenspan take up golf- 36 holes per day that wears him out, precluding speaking engagemants. The chaos was fed on his watch. He retired?? I think his new wife wants his news stories to enhance her career. Typical newsgirl!! Reply
  • commenter
    unimpressedp
    ragmatist
    Dec 13 01:21 PM
    My Website
    Futures Strong in Pre-Markets [view article]
    Why does Wall Street continue to worship at the feet of Alan Greenspan? Have they forgotten that he, single-handedly, caused 7 recessions? As to T. Boone Pickens and his forecast of $100 oil, please ask yourself, quo bono? Also, wishful thinking?

    While we are on the subject of forecasting and trends, how many times have futures been up before the market opening, only to see a big down day?

    Wake up, gentlemen, no one can predict the direction of the market by reading bones, entrails, tea leaves, or futures trading. Better to consult the very, very rich and powerful who have and use the ability to manipulate the market for their benefit. Why do you think they are so rich and powerful? Ask your buddy, Jim Cramer, about them if you are unaware. He’s an expert on this subject.
    Reply
  • commenter
    sasian
    Dec 12 11:37 PM
    My Website
    Greenspan: Large Losses Loom [view article]
    i love greenshpan.. especially as continues to be the prophet laureate of self-fulfilling prophecies.. Reply
  • commenter
    mnrtrading
    Dec 12 11:16 PM
    My Website
    Why Markets Fell Post Fed Cut [view article]
    There is little doubt that whatever action the Fed took, the "market" was going to sell, simply because the action was driven by uncertainty and no one likes uncertainty. But the recession risks, at least those presented as probabilities as in Eli's post, are not accurate. The range of recession sentiment varies from about 5% (and I am in that camp) to 100%. Now although the Wall Street Journal presents that data to indicate the average = 36% chance of recession, the data actually indicate that there is no consensus, and that is all. In terms of monetary indicators the chance of recession is very low, and in terms of productivity, the chance of recession is very low.

    mnrtrading.blogspot.co.../     Reply
  • commenter
    Jimk7
    Dec 12 07:58 PM
    Greenspan: Large Losses Loom [view article]
    Human psychology. Simple.

    You can hire all the economists in the world and still can't measure or predict the human psyche.

    When one sees change and feels change and experiences change and that change is positive for his/her environment, a state or euphoria presides over all.     Reply
  • commenter
    Scorpio69er
    Dec 12 03:03 PM
    Greenspan: Large Losses Loom [view article]
    In order to understand our present situation, it is instructive to read this article from the WSJ from June 9, 2005:

    In Treating U.S. After Bubble, Fed Helped Create New Threats

    * Low Rates Bolstered Economy, But Housing, Foreign Debt Appear Out of Balance

    * Greenspan's Legacy at Stake

    "If I were a biologist I'd call this a perfect example of symbiosis," former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker mused in a February speech at Stanford University. "Contented American consumers matched against delighted foreign producers. Happy borrowers matched against willing lenders. The difficulty is, the seemingly comfortable pattern can't go on indefinitely."

    Almost every economist agrees. The debate is over how, not whether, the global economy rebalances: Will it be smooth, through some combination of declining dollar and accelerating foreign demand? Or will it be chaotic, with a dollar collapse, much higher U.S. interest rates and perhaps a global recession?

    Mr. Volcker thinks a crisis is likely. Investor confidence could fade "at some point," he said, with "damaging volatility in both exchange markets and interest rates."

    www.andongkim.com/arti...

    Reply
  • commenter
    unimpressedp
    ragmatist
    Dec 12 12:37 PM
    My Website
    Investors Focused on Size of Fed Rate Cut, Outlook [view article]
    Once more, the thieves of Wall Street, their analysts, the economic community, media pundits, and assorted “experts” display their complete and total lack of knowledge and understanding of the world of investors, government dweebs, and market forces. Anyone with, at least, a modicum of understanding of the market would have realized that yesterday’s plunge was momentary and the result of manipulation. Today’s high-powered rise in the market was, also, predictable. The only people who were confused and lost money were the same ones who, constantly, get caught with their pants lowered to half-mast.

    Here is a little primer for all you lamebrains who, foolishly, believe that the market is an honest business. The stock market is at the mercy of very, very big money people who can, at their whim and for their personal profit, manipulate it on a moments notice. Those of us who understand that make money. Those that don’t, become sub-prime borrowers. If you believe this is a rant by a know-nothing, consult Jim Cramer on the subject of market manipulation. He is a real expert on the subject.

    For members of the media, keep writing your useless and ignorant treatises for the confusion of the ignorant. You and the weatherman have something in common: you are always wrong but many believe in your prattle so you can continue to draw salaries under false pretenses.
    Reply
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