iShares Lehman 1-3 Year Treasury Bond (SHY)
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- Why I'm Against Fixed Income ETFs [view article]
- Fixed Income: Little Value in Treasuries, Preferred Financials Yielding 8% [view article]
- Bond Ladders vs. Layering with Bond Funds [view article]
- A 360 View of Returns (July 2008) [view article]
- Searching for the Best Bond ETF [view article]
- The Highest Yielding Cash Products [view article]
- Bond Expert: Tuesday Outlook [view article]
- Bond Expert: Monday Wrap [view article]
- Treasury Market: Confounding the Nonbelievers [view article]
- Bond Expert: Friday Wrap [view article]
- Questioning The Value of Bond ETFs [view article]
loading ...Recent SHY Articles
- Tweaking the Global T-Bill Theory
- Fixed Income: Little Value in Treasuries, Preferred Financials Yielding 8%
- Bond Ladders vs. Layering with Bond Funds
- A 360 View of Returns (July 2008)
- Searching for the Best Bond ETF
- The Highest Yielding Cash Products
- Bond Expert: Tuesday Wrap
- Bond Expert: Tuesday Outlook
- Bond Expert: Monday Wrap
- Treasury Market: Confounding the Nonbelievers
- Full List of Articles »
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Look to the Markets to Assess Inflation [view article]
Simply add the thought that oil at $100/bbl today is the same value arguably as oil at $60/bbl, based on old exchange rates US$/Euro. The conclusion then is that it will be US equities that have a problem, not the rest of the world- as it is only the US (and US peg countries) really seeing the inflation.Maybe you could do the same analysis, but from the perspective of the Euro ? I for one would be most intrigued to the outcome.
Perhaps also add to this the inflationary impact all those extra petrodollars will have - unless GCC/Opec players switch to Euro's or a basket of currencies.
So many options - so little time !!! Reply
Friday Outlook: Two-Way Volatility Continues [view article]
Jack, if you look at the weekly chart posted you'll note how many times we've seen this pattern during the decline. Think of it as a series of steps lower which I've posted before. Fundamentally, I don't know what's to like about the euro vs the dollar at these levels but let's face it the dollar may be losing its reserve currency status.Robert,
When eroded by current inflation the yield on IEF is negative.
Reply
Friday Outlook: Two-Way Volatility Continues [view article]
What do you mean by negative yields (in the comments for SHY and IEF)? Do you mean relative to something like SHV? ReplyFriday Outlook: Two-Way Volatility Continues [view article]
US dollar is finding some form of bottom at 76, on the USD index that you have graphed. In 2.5 years, it has dropped from 90 to current levels. One would think that it must be putting extreme pressures on industry in Europe, hence a weakening their economy and causing eventual interest rate cuts. The interest rates cuts would presumably weaken the EU and stimulate consumer growth.So, does this support the idea that the dollar is making a bottom, which may last for a few years? thoughts? Reply
To Rebalance or Not? The Moment of Truth [view article]
David - I posted a response. I think his attack is based upon a the theory that a portfolio's amount is "fixed." Frankly I enjoyed your ideas more in your ETF Guide where you use rebalancing to "lean" in and out of allocations based upon an investment thesis for the particular asset class. ReplyJackson
To Rebalance or Not? The Moment of Truth [view article]
Mitch, take a look at Phil DeMuth's attack on rebalancing here:seekingalpha.com/artic...
Would love to hear your thoughts on it. Reply
Friday Outlook: On the Brink of Stagflation? [view article]
And we will never extract ourselves from an increasing vicious level of stagflation within the confines of a free capitalistic society. ReplyWhat You Don't Know About the Bond Market Can Hurt You [view article]
I've only traded futures. This was an "eye opener". ReplyWhat You Don't Know About the Bond Market Can Hurt You [view article]
Great article. Thanks!john Reply
Q1 Outlook: The 'R' Word [view article]
a kindred spirit. i feel the same way asyou do with regards to various assetclasses Real Estate should and will firm first. .after tuesdays equity waterfall it will be interesting to see shorts comelately show up and be whipped by longs rushing into support to ride the retracement what do you think? ReplyTwo Billionaires Concur: Sell the Banks [view article]
Greg,Very good comments. I was concerned when I first read Paul's article, however when I went to the Fed website, it did not appear that the overall numbers were out of whack. Your explanation is credible, thanks! Reply
Two Billionaires Concur: Sell the Banks [view article]
Paul: thanks for the read. What is your advice for folks who have positions in long-term treasury bond funds? [E.g. American Century BTTTX and similar]. Those have enjoyed a nice runup in the past half-year: do you expect further price appreciation due to flight-to-quality, or would they also be endangered if banks start selling off shorter-term paper to raise cash? ReplyTwo Billionaires Concur: Sell the Banks [view article]
The lowering of non-borrowed reserves of which leading into this was about $41 billion, coincided with the $40 billion borrowing through the term auction facility. My interpretation is that the banks didn't just burn through their reserves, they've been reclassified because of the term-auction and the fact that the banks have no reason to hold extra any more extra reserves than they did before, becuase you don't make money on reserves and thus banks like to limit them as much as possible. They're former reserves turned into money. Focusing on reserves actually misses the point a bit I think. Banks in trouble will show capitalization problems and regulators coming to close them down before they burn through all their reserves unless there is a run on the bank. I don't recall hearing about any major runs on banks other than a brief one on CFC and Northern Rock. ReplyTwo Billionaires Concur: Sell the Banks [view article]
This is like saying that since Mark Cuban hates stocks I shouldn't be buying them. If I was a billionaire, I wouldn't own any stocks either let alone bank stocks. Come to think of it I might turn into a fear monger like these guys if no other reason than it's fun. ReplyTwo Billionaires Concur: Sell the Banks [view article]
Important article for me to read. I suspected just this. Reply