SPDR Homebuilders (XHB)

All Comments on XHB

  • commenter
    Realsit
    Sep 04 08:31 PM
    Theoretical Declines of a Bursting Oil Bubble [view article]
    sr9web - Nice little write up. And to add to that, I'd like to add a recent quote from Jim Rogers:
    "the commodities market can frequently correct 40% to 50% even during a bull market.”
    Citing the crude oil bull market in 1999, he said the commodity prices had gone down 40% to 50% during that period.
    “Even if the world economy is going to collapse with everything coming down, I will opt to own wheat and cotton rather than Google or IBM shares!” Rogers said.

    When you have a plateau in production and increasing global consumption pressures, then prices become more volatile. The easy, high-yield oil has been extracted. Rapidly rising price and flat production (since 2004) = peak produciton.


    Reply
  • commenter
    User 231937
    Sep 04 08:02 PM
    Theoretical Declines of a Bursting Oil Bubble [view article]
    When oil was a 145 and people where talking 200 dollar oil it was time to sell. Now the opposite is starting to happen, and it may be a good time to get back in. Reply
  • commenter
    sr9web
    Sep 04 05:16 PM
    Theoretical Declines of a Bursting Oil Bubble [view article]
    The real question is, why did the Tech Bubble and Real Estate Bubble pop?
    The answer to that is Demand Saturation.

    Now ask yourself this: Is the demand for oil saturated? The answer to that is no, it's not. Had oil not spiked to almost $150, no one would be even saying anything about the fact that it's hanging around $110 now. There'd be no "bubble" talk regarding oil.

    Oil, like water and electricity is a commodity that has extremely high value to an end-user. On the other hand, a $750,000 McMansion really isn't tangibly any better to the person who lives in it than a $350,000 house. Both have A/C, new carpets, a nice garage, etc. etc. What I'm saying is that it's easy to cut your housing usage by 50% or more, but in a lot of ways, you really can't do that with your oil usage.

    And as for tech stocks, after the blizzard of IPOs had churned and churned for a while, it was as if the world population of beautiful people has suddenly jumped by a factor of 10. Like beauty, tech was only exciting because of its newness and rareness.

    I assure you, if everyone in the world were beautiful, supermodels would be unemployed and truck drivers would be in demand. It's hard to drive a truck and it's hard to supply the world with fuel. Right now, only oil can do that and if oil even went back to $80 for three years, that alone would be enough to kill virtually all alternative ideas where they stand.

    Don't be fooled: In a world with a growing population filled with people who want more of everything, substantial amounts of consumable oil is the only viable way for them to head in that direction. Oil demand will not drop substantially without a major USA ramp-up of coal, nat gas, nuclear power and additional drilling.

    And that’s a political problem, which even if solved, would take 10+ years to fully implement. Over those 10 years, the demand for world oil will continue to be very strong. With a real miracle, the USA may cut its net usage over 10 years, but the world will not.

    There will be ups and downs, but the long-term demand trend for oil in the next 10 years is still upward.

    The demand for oil can’t be diminished or satiated by a “bubble”, because unlike housing or tech stocks, oil is consumed and after that, needs to be replaced if the end-user is to keep using it.

    Trying to equate oil with the chimera of tech or the swindle of overpriced real estate is a mistake.

    Reply
  • commenter
    HARM
    Sep 04 04:44 PM
    My Website
    Credit Suisse: Housing Bottom More Than a Year Away [view article]
    @jimmy46,

    Let's also not forget more recent "incentives" for Wall Street and reckless borrowers & lenders:

    2008: Congress & Bushco raises the CLL from $417k to $729k, hands the Fed a blank check to bailout the GSEs, passes "Hope Now", Fed bails out Bear-Stearns, etc.

    And yet, despite all the tax breaks, incentives and plain-old taxpayer bailouts, prices are still falling. Guess all the king's men can't put Humpty-Bubble back together again...     Reply
  • commenter
    BrotherMayna
    rd
    Sep 04 04:34 PM
    Theoretical Declines of a Bursting Oil Bubble [view article]
    "While it's pretty much unfathomable and also unlikely" might be more dangerous than "this time its different." Reply
  • commenter
    Marc
    Courtenay
    Sep 04 02:18 PM
    My Website
    Most Overbought and Oversold US ETFs [view article]
    This was very helpful and I'm surprised there weren't more comments. Thanks to Bespoke for making this information available. Reply
  • commenter
    Realsit
    Sep 04 01:58 PM
    Theoretical Declines of a Bursting Oil Bubble [view article]
    This scientist/businessman/... beautifully explains and illustrates why oil is not a "bubble" in the sense that people like to compare and lump it into things like the tech/housing bubble. It's the best single essay I've read that ties everything together: the economy, population, and energy:
    Exponential Money in a Finite World
    chrismartenson.com/exp...

    His Crash course is also well done and covers everything in more detail.     Reply
  • commenter
    jimmy46
    Sep 04 01:25 PM
    Credit Suisse: Housing Bottom More Than a Year Away [view article]
    until the ratio of median housing prices to family income returns to historical levels:""&qu...

    I don't believe it,
    the gov. keeps giving more tax breaks to homeowners.

    That makes homeowning even more valuable.

    1994, congress let people take $500k tax free out of a home sale.

    2005 Nevada copies Cal and says property tax CANNOT go up more than 3% a year, regardless of inflation or anything else.

    These tax breaks add to home value.
     Reply
  • commenter
    mangolfer
    Sep 04 12:55 PM
    Theoretical Declines of a Bursting Oil Bubble [view article]
    Anyone still waiting for your tech stocks to come back? (I am) Waiting for your builder stocks to come back? (no, just bought in now) Anybody long oil now? (not me, I'm short since mid July). When news has not been able to change the oil price direction, why stay in? Clearly oil has not hit bottom yet. Reply
  • commenter
    Barry
    Robbins
    Sep 04 12:42 PM
    Theoretical Declines of a Bursting Oil Bubble [view article]
    I think the idea that oil will follow the same path as these other bubbles is a huge mistake. The reason oil will be different... We are running out of the stuff! Planned future oil production projects will not be able to meet expected demand. And the production rates of the world's biggest oil fields are in decline. You might be better off comparing oil to the price of Manhattan real estate - there is only some much of the stuff to go around, and demand far outstrips supply. Reply
  • commenter
    User 141585
    Sep 04 12:23 PM
    Theoretical Declines of a Bursting Oil Bubble [view article]
    so that's what systematically abused markets look like. Nice chart. Reply
  • commenter
    Scopay
    Sep 04 12:13 PM
    Theoretical Declines of a Bursting Oil Bubble [view article]
    I tried to finish but the curser wouldn't come up.
    True story. I passed the NYSE test as a salesman in Nov 1949 and worked for F. I. duPont for 21 years. Got out just before they hit the skid!     Reply
  • commenter
    Geocacher
    Sep 04 12:09 PM
    Real Estate, Retail ETFs Better Than You Think [view article]
    Ops... shouldn't that be oops? Just asking. After all, you have an extremely weak understanding of math. Perhaps your lack of knowledge extends to grammar as well.

    A few hedge funds, a number of large instituitonal money as well as savvy managers control the bulk of actual dollars being invested. They may number in the thousands. Moreover, they represent the reason for the rise in early business cycle leaders like real estate/retail.

    Meanwhile, there are hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of small investors who chase performance. The latter group are usually behind the curve. They represent the majority of investors... and they haven't wanted to go near consumer discretionary or real estate stocks.

    Hope that explains it for you, Ops.     Reply
  • commenter
    Scopay
    Sep 04 12:08 PM
    Theoretical Declines of a Bursting Oil Bubble [view article]
    In the early 1950s I was trading Potato futures and watching Onion Futures. The onions went down to 10CENTS A BAG OF 100 LBS! The bag cost 11 CENTS! I a LONGS SQUEEZE, the Barrell will cost more than the oil! Reply
  • commenter
    JasonC
    Sep 04 11:09 AM
    Theoretical Declines of a Bursting Oil Bubble [view article]
    It will go the whole way. Lingers a while in the 60-80 range no doubt, so did the other two. These huge prices are pure transfers to the oil producing governments and in no way needed to fund its actual production. At these levels, demand halves every decade. If oil were just to stay at a plateau above $70, it would be economical to make synthetic diesel out of coal (as Germany did in WW II). The only reason companies aren't making such investments is they don't expect prices to stay high long enough, and they fear confiscatory green regulation.

    If the west simply tells green luddites to stuff it, oil will go back to $30.     Reply
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