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  • From Subprime to Meltdown: Is Peak Oil Responsible?
    Early 1970s: What was happening back then? Oh, that's right. 1970 is the year that the real income of working-class Americans began its permanent decline, which has amounted to workers making 50% less today than they did back then (and look how much better off we are! Just as the economists predicted!). So why is it a surprise that nobody has any money today? The mortgage crisis wasn't limited to people who were too poor to buy houses in the first place. Many people were rich enough when they got the mortgage, but then their jobs went to China, Indonesia, Mexico, Malaysia, India, or other third-world countries (with the assistance of abundant oil), and they eventually had to settle for lower-paying jobs that didn't cover the mortgage anymore.

    So the current economic crisis is only partially caused by the Peak. It was exacerbated by stratification (known to previous generations as class war).

    Jan 05 23:59 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Good Riddance to 2008
    "No one was saved from the relentless selling and decline in asset values."

    Yes, I was saved.

    The value of my stock portfolio increased by +14% during 2008. You know how I did it ? I am a new investor and starting buying stocks for the first time in November 2008. So far I appear to have perfectly timed the bottom :-)
    Jan 01 00:53 am |Rating: +1 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • New DivX Hook-Up with Matroska to Provide Enhanced Video Experience
    Wow, a lot of ignorance here. Development on Matroska has never stopped. The official suite of tools, MKVToolNix, has been making regular releases since the beginning. Matroska’s tools have ALWAYS been open-source. On top of that, a major upgrade to the format is planned for the neat future (Matroska 2.0). Finally, DivX 7’s use of MKV has already been confirmed, so stop spreading lies.

    Oh, and if you think that “Matroska dropped MKV'' makes ANY sense, than you seriously have no idea what you’re talking about. The Matroska Foundation’s sole real for being is to push the Matroska (= MKV!) format.
    Dec 31 15:34 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • New DivX Hook-Up with Matroska to Provide Enhanced Video Experience
    Wow, a lot of ignorance here. Development on Matroska has never stopped. The official suite of tools, MKVToolNix, has been making regular releases since the beginning. Matroska’s tools have ALWAYS been open-source. On top of that, a major upgrade to the format is planned for the neat future (Matroska 2.0). Finally, DivX 7’s use of MKV has already been confirmed, so stop spreading lies.

    Oh, and if you think that “Matroska dropped MKV'' makes ANY sense, than you seriously have no idea what you’re talking about. The Matroska Foundation’s sole real for being is to push the Matroska (= MKV!) format.
    Dec 31 15:32 pm |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Interview with Patrick Byrne, CEO of Overstock.com
    Hey TG... great job, thanks for the interview. BTW, I believe your references to the FCC should be SEC, the Securities and Exchange Commission. Perhaps in transcription, that got misunderstood.
    Dec 24 09:45 am |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Dividend Paying Stocks: You Only Have to Be Lucky Once
    Devin, have you heard of the investment strategy called value investing ? It is obvious why CSCO's stock price didn't increase much during the past ten years and you point it out yourself: it was overvalued in 1999 (P/E == 100 !). It just took 10 years for the market to eventually correct that overvaluation. I personally believe that, as of today, $100B is a fair value for the company (therefore it *still* isn't a good buy because according the strategy you should invest in undervalued companies, not fairly valued ones). My background is IT/CS/Networking, and yes I did research CSCO :-)

    Conversely, I haven't looked at PG, but I bet if you looked at their fundamentals you would notice they were *not* overvalued to begin with, so it was logical for their market cap to keep increasing because it is growing.

    I also don't think that investing is a matter of luck. At a conference in the 1990s, Warren Buffett refuted that argument by showing data that him and a group of friends following this strategy were able to consistently outperform the market, every year, for a period of 20+ years, with differences in their portfolios.

    I should say that even though I have probably less experience than most people here, my first exposure to investment strategies has been value investing, and it strikes me as so obvious that this is the right way to invest that I wonder why not more people follow it.
    Dec 24 00:03 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Open Letter to Sirius XM: Take Us Listeners into Consideration
    Tyler wrote:

    ...to be clear, I have always enjoyed a little bit of DJ talk. I feel that DJs add to a show....

    That is the only comment that I take exception to in your otherwise excellent article.

    You are sending a mixed message to Mel K and Scott Greenstein and company.

    We want them to silence the DJ's on music channels.

    PERIOD>

    What don't they understand about this?

    I am beginning to think this is all a cleverly crafted plan to make way for commercials. Think about it.

    If people are used to interruptions in between each song, how long before they start sneaking in a commercial here and there?

    Will people even notice?

    Sirius subscribers will become so immune to the HORRIBLE blather from these asshole DJ's providing mel the opportunity to quietly fire them and replace their interruptions with ads -- all in the name of making Sirius profitable.

    Don't allow it.

    Look, The New York Times just announced that IN AN EFFORT TO REDUCE OPERATING COSTS they fired all of the overnight DJ's on their WQXR owned radio station and replaced them with pre-recorded messages and non-stop classical music.

    Why is MEL so stubborn?

    Mel, FIRE ALL THE DJ's on the music channels. PLAY MUSIC. that is why I am subscribing. Not to hear FM style dj's. STOP THE MADNESS



    "We've gotten hundreds of people who hated it and claimed they were going to cancel," Karmazin said at last week's Reuters Media Summit, as recounted in the Reuters MediaFile blog. "If we took the most aggressive number of people who cancelled, and we take that (away) the $120 a year (they pay) it doesn't get to a $1 million as compared to the significant amount of cost savings as a company that needs to make money."
    NO reverse split! (With today's stock prices, NASDAQ should reconsider its delisting policy


    he cancelations have amounted to less than 1 million dollars per year loss to the company

    Dec 16 17:14 pm |Rating: +3 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Open Letter to Sirius XM: Take Us Listeners into Consideration
    Sirius would have you believe that

    IF you don't vote for a Reverse Split the stock will be delisted.

    NOT TRUE

    Between delisting extensions, appeals and the current lobbying effort (in the midst of this current depression/severe recession) to abolish the $1.00 delisting rule (provided the market cap is above a certain threshold) threat of delisting is not an immediate issue.

    DON'T BUY INTO THAT THINLY VEILED THREAT!

    VOTE NO ON Reverse Split.

    Vote No on additional shares.

    Vote yes or no on keeping Mel. I am on the fence. If he goes, who takes over?

    Sirius will have you believe that if you own 10 shares at 14 cents each (meaning your equity is $1.40) then a Reverse Split of 1 for 10 will mean the new stock price will be $1.40 and you will have the same equity.

    BULL SHIT

    After a RS the stock will go up to $1.40 but the bondholders will immediately short it back down to 14 cents

    Now where are you?

    You will then own one share at 14 cents instead of 10 shares at $1.40

    See my point?

    The deadline for delisting is January 20th.

    Sirius would by law have 180 days from that point to become compliant.

    In addition Sirius could also appeal the notice at the end of the 180 day deadline.

    Plus keep in mind that they may very well extend the extension deadline well beyond the Jan 20th deadline as there is an unprecedented amount of stocks on the NASDAQ below 1.00, which could easily put us into 2010 Providing plenty of time for management to perform their fiduciary duties and make a substantial effort to increase the share price and shareholder value.


    Dec 16 17:03 pm |Rating: +2 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Open Letter to Sirius XM: Take Us Listeners into Consideration
    Why vote for a reverse stock split?

    Bondholders own Sirius Xm, thanks to that eleventh hour financing deal that allowed Bondholders to instantly short Sirius shares to protect their investment.

    So if you vote for a RS aren't you saying to Bondholders "go ahead, make my day, short the 50-1 new share price of $7.00 back down to 14 cents?"

    The NAB is no longer a threat to Sirius.

    The FCC is no longer a threat to Sirius.

    The Bondholders are the only threat to the current share price and will surely dilute any higher price as a result of a RS>
    Dec 16 16:36 pm |Rating: 0 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Expiring Patents Ignite Biotech Boom
    What you don't know is that the third world, led by India, China, Thailand, etc are already copying patented drugs, for rich or poor people. So yes, effectively 5 out of 6.7 billion people worldwide already don't pay patent price for patented drugs. In my opinion, this has a far greater effect than legal expirations.
    Dec 05 07:39 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • CNN's New Wire Will Shake Up the Newspaper Business
    I'm a little late on this but it’s fascinating to me that CNN doesn’t want to pay for outside news sources (i.e. their cancellation of AP & Reuters) but expects others to pay them for their news sources (CNN Newsource).

    Case in point, the unfair practice at CNN of having their hundreds of Newsource affiliates pay top dollar to get access to CNN footage while CNN uses the reciprocal affiliate footage to program upwards of 50% of their on-air video and online content. They get it coming and going. How is it that the affiliates have not figured this out yet. If the affiliates were to band together and demand a fair reciprocal sharing pool, CNN would have no choice but to bend. Because there's no way their investing 10s of millions of dollars in getting this video footage themselves. Nothing drove me crazier as a local news person to know that WE had to PAY for the privilege of putting our content into a pool that CNN “organized” and benefited greatly from — both from a content source and a mid-8-figure revenue source for CNN Newsource.
    Dec 02 18:41 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Citigroup: The End Draws Near
    I did a little bit of amateur analysis of the bailout package and these were my findings. If anyone can offer additional insight into this in the form of a reply, it'd be much appreciated.

    - Conditional guarantee on $306B in assets, presumably designed to mostly cover their riskier derivative positions at a price of $7B in preferred stock paying a coupon of 8%. Given that C's two highest yielding preferreds already pay a coupon of 8.125% (CpP) and and 8.5% (CpM), this appears to be quite a deal for C in terms of added dividend liability.

    - C's added liabilities at this point, to attain this much of a guarantee, comes out to around $329 million per year (8% * $7B).

    - Someone correct me if I'm wrong here, but I believe that the CDS spread on C was in the ballpark of 470bps on Friday. Thus, purchasing that much of an unconditional guarantee on C's debt would've cost roughly $14.38B on the open market; being that this is a conditional guarantee, C needs to absorb $29B before coverage begins. Just between C's $24B loan loss reserve allocation and the $25B TARP to drawn on, it seems likely that C could reasonably absorb the full $29B without much trouble.

    - Now, please, someone offer their insight with regards to the financing provision. Every which way I read it, it seems as if the government is extending a guarantee on the REST of ALL of C's assets, beyond the $308B troubled portfolios, in the form of a non-recourse loan @ OIS + 300bps with the same 90/10 loss sharing terms. Given that the overnight rate has been averaging in the ballpark of only 30-50bps this past month, this again seems
    curious. If I'm not misinterpreting this, it would appear as if they're getting an extremely generous credit line that, maybe given its terms, the USG doesn't expect it to tap into.

    - C keeps the income derived from their assets in the guaranteed portfolio, designating the risk weight to 20%. Since it's unknown how, in light of what's happened the past year, to what extent C has re-weighted the risk in those portfolios, and there's no better risk weighting than 20%, this should help free up much of C's capital tied down to those assets.

    - Preferreds are agreed to be redeemable in either cash or stock, so this should have no negative impact on the share price beyond the added liability from the new preferred issuance. That liability seems to be explicitly covered in a prudent attempt to minimize backlash from the public, demand further cost reduction, by requiring an almost complete cut in its dividend which had been, @ $0.16/share, a quarterly expense of $872 million based on the 5.45B shares outstanding.

    Very wisely, more stuff cooked in to placate an increasingly irritated
    taxpaying public and demonstrate that this deal is not 'for free':

    - C's obligation to reduce its divdend to $0.01. It will be seen on Monday how this affects C's commons. Considering that the rationalization for the steep plunge through the last trading sessions was primarily due to concerns of solvency with no expectation that the yield be maintained, I don't imagine this should negatively impact the share price too much. In terms of net impact, it should be negative clearly, but overall much of the price depression was a bet placed on the solvency question.

    - An interesting throw-in was the 10-year warrant for $2.7B @ $10.61/share. A fairly transparent attempt to elevate C's share price, it will likely yield some positive impact to C's common, but probably by not much. But it does offer the very clear message that USG will not hesitate to profit heartily by offering its assistance.

    - Place executive compensation under oversight by the USG. Nothing new from the TARP.

    Overall, I think that the terms in this package appear to have been thought out a bit better and though the terms are less attractive than with the original TARP, its impact is comprehensive and far clearer. My guess is that this will likely remove any remaining doubt as to C's short and long-term solvency.
    Nov 24 13:10 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Apple vs. Microsoft Vista: The Ad Budget Wars
    Apple is only hypocritical if people are clamoring for them to fix a bad product, but they spend the money on advertising instead.

    Microsoft is being treated unfairly if people are clamoring for them to fix a bad product, but they spend the money on advertising instead.

    The only way a large advertising campaign is effective is if the message is backed up by reality.

    Draw your own conclusions.
    Nov 24 11:25 am |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Why Yahoo Finance Is Wrong About Buffett
    Lest you shoot the messenger, AGAIN, let me point out who actually wrote the story: One Simon Maierhofer of ETFGuide.com.

    Fixed your own flawed story, and figure out who is really at fault. And to think Seeking Alpha publishes such poorly researched material!
    Nov 20 10:21 am |Rating: 0 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • How Good Are Online Financial Services at Marketing?
    I'm glad you asked. They are excellent, specifically www.tffinc.net that's Top Flite Financial. Call them today and retire tomorrow.
    Oct 08 21:26 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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