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waldipup's Comments Stream Stats
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Pamela Aden: Ready for a Rebound?
Price to sales and price to cashflow are not ratios representing profits.
If it is being mispriced , it is being done so along with many others in the same boat.
Gaza War: Expect a Spike in Oil, Gold
The current conflict is limited such that it should have little effect on either.
The likelyhood of a widening conflict based on the current circumstances are extemely low -
Virtually the same as at any other point in time.
So I dont think the premise of the article warrants it's being written in the first place.
President of Euro Pacific Capital on Gold and the Dollar
First off , I believe this article is an old interview , yet dated Dec. 30 .
Why not clarify the time frame of the actual interview?
Second , since it is old , the dollar is now quite lower , making the first comment look silly , even though it was anyway ,
And the article itself , though always nice to read Schiff , not timely.
Enlightening the Gold Bugs
What were the expectations during that period?
To those who have done so , might I suggest that it is more persuasive to ridicule "gold bugs" at a point when gold has not been the best performing asset for the past 7 or so years , and one of the few not showing an 08 loss? I'm just saying , those little things tend to dilute the argument against em.
How you can print endless trillions of dollars and go , as a result , into a multi year uptrend confounds me.
I guess , as has been the case in the recent short term , anything can happen ( in the short term) ,
But I'd
1) Bet on gold , not the buck , and
2) At minimum , reserve judgement until the charts confirm that the recent drop does not represent a downtrend resumption with the more recent spike up not just a correction , before concluding that the endless printing of a currency has no effect on its value over time.
Will COMEX Default on Gold and Silver?
This is the most economical way to buy , especially with current dealer markup premiums.
But I think it should be done quickly , without long term exposure to the futures market position , and not taken in certificate form but in actual metal .
Despite my agreement per the rational analysis of the articles concepts ,
I nonetheless believe that there is a reasonably high percentage chance that smaller players will have their delivery request positions compromised
as demand increases and available supplies decrease .
What is my analytical basis for saying this?
I can only tell you how you will (may) end up getting screwed after the fact , at which time knowing really wont matter anyway.
Counterparty Risk May Lead to Potential Squeeze in Gold Market
I agree, but would point out that many dont have the cash for that , and only play the futures market based on margin trading -
Unless we are talking about a point in time per delivery month when full value has been required to remain in a position?
Gold Index Rallies for 65% Gain
If you can make this simplistic statement , there is too much to explain here.
But just simply , add 3 cans of water to a can of concentrated frozen orange juice and then taste it.
Pretty good , right?
Now add 10 more cans of water and taste it.
Not much juice taste anymore , right?
Now apply the same concept to the dollar.
Maybe now you can guess what will e-v-e-n-t-u-a-l-l-y happen?
Freeport-McMoran: Cuts Production; Suspends Dividend
Everybody is losing their money because of this type of thinking.
Commodities have all spiked to new highs and then crashed , so
now 1.60 is too cheap to sell Copper.
Except for this spike to 4 bucks , and a couple in the past to hi 1's - 2 bucks , 1.60 is the highest price Copper has ever been to sell at.
But now 4 bucks is its "intrinsic value" and 1.60 is too cheap.
Sure , hold some for the long run in case dramatically higher prices set in as a spec to hit a home run with.
But for the bulk of your investment capital/risk , look at long term prices and ignore hype that ignores average long term prices and only points to the sky as a goal.
1.60 is high enough for Copper.
Soybeans are down to 7 from 15. So are they "way below their intrinsic value" also?
High Premiums on Silver? Better to Buy Gold
counter analysis.
It would be incumbent to explain away the premise that there is a shortage of smaller minted silver entities to counter the argument that Comex is the correct value.
If you cant do so, then it's just opinion as to whether the Comex or the cash market
represents the true price.
Poisunelly , I'm waiting to see how much physical offtake there is from the Comex on the Dec. 08 , and the March 09 delivery months-
No way the true price is double the Comex price and savvy investors of the larger variety are not going to glom up the silver at half price via inexpensive Comex delivery.
So lets let the market tell us who's right -
If nobody takes delivery , it would be hard to argue that the high premium prices are for real , and not just due to the fabrication supply/demand
imbalance.
If silver flies out of Comex inventory faster than a speeding bullet , then we've been looking at an artificially depressed Comex price , and that would then be hard to argue against.
Gold Bugs Beware
www.resourceinvestor.c...
www.resourceinvestor.c...
Gold Bugs Beware
OK.
This is what I found :
See at link for full article / graphs :
www.resourceinvestor.c...
Got Gold Report – COMEX Commercials Least Net Short Gold In Years
By Gene Arensberg
10 Nov 2008 at 08:22 AM GMT-05:00
The big news this week is that the largest of the largest traders for gold futures, the commercial traders on the COMEX, are now the least net short gold they have been in years.
----------------------...
ATLANTA (ResourceInvestor.com) -- Regardless of whether or not the world is near the end of the giant financial “Charlie Foxtrot” we have all endured up to now, the largest of the largest traders of gold futures now have the fewest bets that the U.S. dollar price of gold will fall further than they have had in years.
As of Tuesday, November 4, traders classed by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as commercial held a collective net short position (LCNS) of just 76,406 out of a total 303,908 contracts on the COMEX, division of NYMEX in New York. A net short position means that the trader profits if the commodity goes lower in price.
Yes, the current COMEX commercial gold net short positioning is the lowest in years. Indeed, we have to go all the way back to June 7, 2005 to find a reporting week which shows a lower LCNS (67,052 then), back when gold closed at $424.87.
That doesn’t mean that gold can’t go lower still, it can. It just means that the big dogs in the futures trading arena are not positioning like they think it will. To the contrary.
More about that very interesting and potentially bullish development below in the Gold COT section, including what it might signal the commercials’ expect, but first, let’s look at the gold and silver ETFs and the CFTC Commitments of Traders Reports (COT).
With the huge disparity in Comex price (low) , and physical price (high) , I wonder if many are buying on the Comex to take delivery at a lower price-
Except that the shorts (in silver , concentrated among a few banks only ) ,
Dont have the metal to deliver?
Wha happens den?
Gold Bugs Beware
How about me?
Stocks are hardly the "new flight to safety".
GS and GE may be a place to park a bit , but we aren't going to get the deal Buffet did , and I dont think they and their ilk will be the new "gold rush place to be".
Bonds may crash as interest rates rise - not right away, but I dont plan on timing it to the last second fully invested.
Foreign stocks are a good diversification tool , but as Peter Schiff has found out to his surprise , no panacea.
Nobody knows how low/how long all these entities may go , but everyone does know that gold wont disappear.
So , as I said per demand -
How about me?
"Supply"
I'm positive that you are aware , and dont you think you should have included in your supply analysis (after all , it's what you were thinking when you wrote it, I'm sure) ,
The number of new supply projects put on hold and cancelled outright as the lifeblood of the majors -
The Juniors -
Have been decimated and incapacitated to the point where expected new supply (badly needed to replace depleting resources) is not coming onstream as thought.
Note that this was not expected to be enough in the first place to replace resource inventory - now , fuggetaboutit.
Now , your point may be that supply in the nearer term is your point ,
but now we have to consider if prices will continue to drop or shoot up.
The consensus has seemed to have morphed , across the board , into something like this:
"Harrumph , gold may drop further , but even if it doesn't , it will not rise appreciably for some time , and will more likely range trade".
But the consensus is always wrong.
Where's that there $200 buck oil everyone knew was coming?
Where's that $100 buck bottom in oil everybody was talking about.
Here's a consensus :
Nobody nose nutin' .
Hold onto some gold.
Are Base Metals Back? China Seems to Think So
Hey , look - it's working!
Due to this article , the whole world is scrambling to buy , and the price is skyrocketing!
I dont think pumping is a fair word to use to describe this article.
Is Gold A Sucker's Bet?
Gold is finite , unlike any/all unbacked currencies ,
And in uncertain times just a bit of additions (globally) to gold holdings can spur quite a rally as a result.
Many assumptions of "what should happen next" have proved to play out otherwise . Anything can happen , and
A meteoric gold rise is certainly one possibility in a panic.
Here is the key point -
It would be foolish to put an inordinate percentage of a portfolio into gold .
But it would be just as foolish to put none into it.
Would a 5 or 10% portfolio stake be any more risky than the conventional investments that have rendered pension funds , municipalities , and investment gurus
penniless?
Gold is not a short.
It is an investment which should be held in a portfolio in a reasonable percentage per diversification along with utilities , industrials , etc.
If it does drop , it will only mirror what the more conventional arenas have done. (Why are losses in those "acceptable" , but if gold drops , not?)
If it skyrockets , it will offset some losses in other sectors.
By limiting gold , and all other sectors , to only a % of ones portfolio ,
one doesn't have to figure out what it "should do" at a certain point , but
rather benefit from a large price increase should it occur, and yet not get killed by a drop.
Taking a Risk - With 20% Yields
Cold Calls with "inside info".
This is always a red flag.
But I agree that shippers and real estate funds are sectors to scrutinize for strong players that will pay dividends , survive , and prove to be bargains in an eventual turnaround in their respective sectors.