jswede

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  • Housing: Not Cheap Enough?
    rates don't matter. they could go to 2% and it wouldn't stop the drop.

    the issue is the fact that nobody has 20% to put down --- today's low rates are available to but a sliver of the home buying public -- maybe 10%.

    many more *think* they have 20%, and it won't be til after an appraisal of their current property that they find out they don't... it will be a harsh reality.

    the uptick in sales and prices in some places are due to mis-guided investors/speculators who wrongly think we're nearing a bottom.

    and as far away as the bottom is, the idea that we'll see significant appreciation after it hits is laughable. after we hit bottom, home prices will go up about at the rate of general inflation, like they did for the 100 years previous to this bubble.
    Jan 08 11:53 am |Rating: +6 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Bill Gross: Buy Early What the Government Buys Later
    it's easy to buy what "they" buy, when you are the one buying for them...

    again, Gross just talking up his book, like every other time he opens his mounth, just like El Erian and McCulley --- when they suggest to buy anything, it's because they spent the 2 months prior buying up all they could of said sector.
    Jan 08 10:16 am |Rating: +4 -4 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Sirius XM Impresses on Blackberry
    asm, point is that SIRI is running out of die-hards such as yourself -- you HAVE to have this "more content capacity/capability&qu... you HAVE to have the line-ups they have and whichever shows you listen to. but there's not a whole lot of folks like you out there, who don't already have their subscription... having internet radio available anywhere for free will further reduce that group on the fence, which is small to begin with.

    and yea, yomann, it's the best right now, I agree. not for long... real competitors with clean balance sheets coming soon...
    Jan 06 17:54 pm |Rating: 0 -2 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Sirius XM Impresses on Blackberry
    it's working really well for them
    Jan 06 17:42 pm |Rating: 0 -2 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Sirius XM Impresses on Blackberry
    so SIRI is now offering their content without the use of those expensive satellites that got them deep into debt..?

    hhmmmm, I wonder if anyone else is providing content along those same lines -- phone networks, wifi, wimax etc....

    yup - sure enough - 50,000+ internet and terrestrial radio stations from across the globe are available for free on the internet and on the iPhone for example, perhaps on the blackberry and other phones as well... not to mention Pandora and last.fm.

    and look - it seems I can also get local sports stations providing coverage of any team I can think of... for free. maybe SIRI's expensive professional sports league contracts weren't such a good idea...

    maybe thinking that satellite was going to be the only mode of transmitting content wasn't such a good idea either... hhmmmm...
    Jan 06 17:10 pm |Rating: +1 -2 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Is Buying Bonds Really a Good Idea?
    when he says "yields are low", he's talking about USTs - then he mentions defaults and is talking about spread product... 2 different markets, and very different yields.
    Dec 31 09:10 am |Rating: +7 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The Brighter Side of Falling Home Prices
    the problem is that nobody has 20% to put down. those 'lower rates' are not available to anyone without it. further, many who THINK they have 20% actually do not, and will find out thru a devastating appraisal when they TRY to move....
    Dec 30 14:45 pm |Rating: +3 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Some Investment Themes for 2009
    short sellers 1) are vital, and 2) buy and sell just like conventional 'longs'
    Dec 30 14:39 pm |Rating: +2 -2 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Ben Stein Watch: December 28, 2008
    for those unfamiliar, this is an ongoing series at Portfolio.com calling out Stein.

    ...and RealResearch, just because something is published here does not mean that it is written for this audience -- SA is an aggregator, most authors don't have anything to do with SA beyond giving permission to re-publish stories here.

    It seems many of you are unfamiliar with Stein's record - I'd advise you to search Felix' archives at Portfolio to get a better idea of this idiot. It's astounding how stupid Stein thinks everyone but himself is.

    Dec 29 09:18 am |Rating: +7 -5 |Link to Comment |View article
  • What Corporate Yield Spreads Are Telling Us About Equities
    "Good trade would be short the treasuries and long the BBB rated corporate bonds."

    you'll have plenty of bankruptcies in BBB though.... though there are good names in there...
    Dec 19 11:23 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Sirius XM Annual Meeting: What's on the Agenda?
    Banks pay 5% on the TARP money (which they can't deduct, so more like an effective ~7%), and that rate is set to increase to 9% in a few years.

    So why would they lend to a company that has never made a profit, is buried in debt, has under a $500mil mrkt cap, with worsening prospects, in a dismal and getting worse economy, and is on a negative credit watch at the 4th lowest rating before "Default", at 5-6% ?

    The market thinks the $500mil 9.625%cpn of 2013 is worth about 20 cents on the dollar. That's a 60%yield.

    "5-6%".... some of you will never get it.
    Dec 18 13:03 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Sirius XM Annual Meeting: What's on the Agenda?
    "I'd scoop up the common AND collect 5 or 6% interest."

    LOL. try 20%
    Dec 18 12:03 pm |Rating: 0 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Why AIG Gets Billions While GM Gets Scorn
    Why do banks and insurance get help, while manufacturing doesn't?

    to quote Dillinger: "because that's where the money is"
    Dec 12 19:15 pm |Rating: +8 -3 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Five Positive Points on Sirius: Is the Street Listening?
    "Karmazin is confident the company can refinance debt due in 2009. Perhaps this issue is the overshadow that simply refuses to go away. Karmazin has been expressing confidence with this subject for a while, and this issue is where a “show-me” attitude is likely warranted. That being said, I have always felt that the company will indeed be able to get the debt issue resolved. I would have hoped that it would have been done by now, but still, it should get done. For the equity to see improvement, an answer on the debt needs resolution."

    >>> after all these months of debt finally being a topic at the forefront, Tylrer still "FEELS" it will be resolved. no substance - PURE FANTASY.

    If Mel didn't repeatedly say he's "confident" about the refi, we'd already be at 0.01 --- that's the ONLY reason he's saying that. He's not confident at all. Certainly not confident about re-financing and while also protecting the common. that's an impossibility right now.

    at the expense of the common AND at HUGE rates is the reality. 25% on $1bil is $250 mil a year in debt cost. In a more perfect credit market, that's what SIRI would pay. but in reality, they will also have to give away company upside to whomever the money is coming from. Maybe a 20% covert.... lol.

    Amazing how, after all this time, the debt sitch is going to be "fine" in Tyler's and others' eyes. Head in the sand, blindly following Mel's words.... STILL. unreal.

    I first mentioned the debt well over 6 mos ago, when NOBODY else was mentioning it here. Now it's at the forefront and it's still not a problem in Tyler's (and some of the rest of yours') eyes.... PURE. BLIND. FATIH.... still. unreal.

    [disclosure: I got back in in the $.20s in the small hope of going private.]
    Dec 04 17:26 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Sirius Investors: Decline in OEM Take Rate Something to Watch
    Shorting is saying the stock is overvalued, but shorts are NOT necessarily betting against the company - just against the market's valuation of the company. This is VERY important to the functioning of the market.

    Without shorts, the a stock will be hugely volatile -- it will go up without any resistance, due to buying of overly optimistic buyers, to insane valuations. This is when the majority of retail buying comes in - always late - then, at the first break of bad news, it will drop like a rock b/c no buyers step in to break the fall.

    Shorts keep the stock in check on the way up by selling, and they keep the stock from a free-fall on the way down by covering. You should be thankful shorting exists - you're just the type of investor who benefits from it.

    You saw what happened when short sales were dis-allowed on financials -- it got ugly. No buyers at the first turn of "bad" news and we dropped like a rock.


    On Nov 22 10:58 AM StockGal wrote:

    > Thanks for the replies. I think it's crazy and stupid to be able
    > to make money on a stock when it goes down... it's like betting against
    > a stock. So you have people also hoping it tanks?
    Nov 22 16:03 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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