fxtrader07

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    • Nouriel Roubini Predicts (Surprise!) a Long Recession [view article]
      @strutzma: when the car races with wharp speed towards the brick wall it will be over faster, yes. but a turnaround cannot happen unless the speed gets slowed.
      hate to say it.       Oct 09 09:24 AM
    • What's Causing This Slow-Motion Market Crash? [view article]
      the author is right: credit markets and especially the interbank lending market are key. unless they get these fixed, the economy will come to a halt and stocks fall even further.. If they can't fix it for another year then todays stock prices will be fair to expensive (depending what sector you look at). If they can fix it over the next 3 months then many stocks are absolute steals here.

      @Whidbey: true, the overall s&P p/e doesn't look that cheap. BUT: it already includes now the disastrous earnings of banks and insurers. And while these won't recover to 2006-2007 levels anytime soon, recover somewhat they will - bringing the S&P's p/e down again.
      second, there are now tons of stocks trading for their cash in the bank, business for free. msft could buy itself at current stock prices with cash and free cash flow - and still have some money left. oil companies, oil servicers with strong order books and backlogs, fixed contracts for a couple years out trade at p/Es of 3-8, natgas companies at less than half of what their natgas is worth (and that's assuming todays low natgas prices to stay). mlps and royalty trusts trading with yields of 15-20%.
      there is indiscriminate selling. make no mistake. either oil breaks down to $40-$50 for an extended period of time or these stocks are once in a lifetime bargains (and many are hedged anyway to quite an extent)
      Oct 08 04:01 AM
    • 36 Opportunities for the Beginning of the Bull [view article]
      sentiment suggests a bottom - but the dead interbank lending market, dead credit markets, dead CP markets and the crashing carry-trade (Yen is going ballistic, especially against the Euro) suggest more pain ahead. Form a time perspective, we probably are pretty close to a bottom. But tell that to the Russians who saw their market plunge more than 20%(!!) just yesterday alone - on top of a 50%+ decline earlier. so a bottom will form between now and mid-november - but it may be right here or it may be 20 or 30 or even 40% lower. who knows for sure? on the other hand, selling has now rotated towards tech after energy and materials in summer.the energy complex is the safest imho now - rich dividends and backed by real, needed assets. technology has a further 40-50% downside risk as those items are usually discretionary stuff that you can at least postpone. and people loosing their jobs, banks starved off cash and corporations with no access to debt financing will postpone software and hardware upgrades as long as possible.
      i do hope the europeans get their acts together and start lowering rates pretty soon and create a pan-european rescue fund. or else the eurozone's economy will head over the cliff and maybe taking the euro currency with it. which would be no event to cheer because it would inflict another huge round of damages across the world       Oct 07 05:57 AM
    • Hedge Funds: The Next Shoe to Drop [view article]
      Hm, I think, they are a wildcard and hinestly, much odf the selling in bonds and stocks has already been due to hedge fund liquidation. After all, credit facilities for them have been shut down or gotten very very expensive long ago. heck, it could even give a boost to certain stocks. Just look at the very high open short interest, much of which is due to hedge funds ( and not just long-short equity funds).
      In any case, the most important measure of them all is to get a central clearing house for the CDS market exactly to prevent a domino-effect.
      And funny thing: there has been so much credit protection been written on certain companies that they vastly exceed the bonds that were insured - and deliverable, for that matter. Now, as I understand, when you bought a CDS, say on GM, then you go to your counterparty and deliver the bonmd which it is written on(!) and in exchange you get par value (or whatever the CDS-terms specify)
      Now, I wonder from where will all the CDS-buyers take the bonds for delivery, if the notional amount exceeds the actual bonds outstanding by many many times? That could be really funny to watch. Or maybe not.       Oct 01 05:14 AM
    • The Greatest Short Sale in History [view article]
      I bet a lot of people thought the same about Japanese govt bonds back in 1990, 1991, 1992....
      ultimately, the treasury bonds will be the greatest short sale ever. But not just yet. and being early on this one by a couple of years means being wrong and getting killed.       Sep 25 02:47 AM
    • A Gigantic Buy - Cramer's Stop Trading! (9/23/08) [view article]
      looks like a top in WMT. If cramer gets as bullish on a stock as possible then ...
      anyone following cramer's recommendation fully deserves to get, well, cramered       Sep 25 02:44 AM
    • Why Punish the Whistle Blower? [view article]
      If short selling were properly regulated and regulations really enforced (e.g. banning ANY NAKED SHORTING, disclosure requirements for substantial short positions similar to the long position reporting obligations, reinstating of the uptick rule) then a ban of legitimate short selling was not needed at all. But rather than doing their homework and fixing the stuff the SEC didn't bother to fix all those years, they now screw up things even further. Sort of a man hiding in a cave from the rain rather than just repairing the roof of his house. Sep 24 05:49 AM
    • Go For The Gold - Cramer's Mad Money (9/22/08) [view article]
      oh no! is that the signal for a significant top in gold already? when cramer advises to buy, it is usually high time to get out.
      but foirtunately, i have the guy on 'ignore'. Don't let your investment decisions and your financial health be influenced by an entertainer-cum-hedgef...       Sep 23 08:29 AM
    • Why I Bought AIG Last Week [view article]
      I agree and went long AIg at 2.50, too.However, I expect those sales that you outlined to generate substantially less - likely just about 55-70 bn $. the reason is that everybody knows that AIg has to sell the stuff asap and that there are plenty of opportunities out there for people with cash.
      as I see it, the warrant structure has already been chosen for the fed to have the option to not take AIG over. In any case AIG below $3 looks like obe of the best opportunities in finaical stocks out there because further downside imho is almost non-existant. except, if you expect financial armageddon. But then again, my small, speculative stake in AIG might be the least I will worry about.       Sep 23 08:11 AM
    • Ban on Short Selling Could Have Negative Consequences for Options Market [view article]
      I'd rather like to see some wider spreads in the options markets than allowing naked shorting of stocks to go on unabated by misusing the market maker exemption.
      If I weigh the benefits and costs it is clearly preferable to force market makers to play by some sort of rules at least.
      And if you are an investor, you usually need not hedge your position by buying puts: if you think the stock is worth holding at 50$/share, you will love to buy more at 30$ and you won't sell at $20, except if the business has deteriorated so much as that the stock is a sell. but then you sell it - you need not hedge it.       Sep 22 11:50 AM
    • Ambac Collapse: Anticlimax of the Week [view article]
      as I see it, Moody#s willö be gone before all this is over. The helped to create this mess with their nonsensical AAA-ratings of RMBS and CDOs. They deepened the crisis with their flip-flopping and their strange downgrades (MBI/ABK; LEH!) at very strange junctures. Hank Paulson will not be amused about how Moody#s and S&P further complicated things and added to trouble by downgrading LEH and AIg while everybody trioed to put bailout plans togehther. I mean, for all the months they had already waited - they could have easily waited for another couple of days, not? Sep 22 09:20 AM
    • Ambac Collapse: Anticlimax of the Week [view article]
      Moody#s shut be shut down, as well as S&P. period. they did more harm than good and they continue to do so. their actions remind me by now of moronic daytraders flipping back anf forth - buying high, selling low, turning from bullish to bearish on a whim. same with Moody's upügrades - downgrades, most of them juyt in response to public pressure. Go figure. the sooner these ratings agencies cease to exist the betetr for everybody. Sep 22 05:56 AM
    • SEC Will Ban Short Selling: America's Leaders Break Down [view article]
      Seems you are finally showing your true face, Bill. I will stop reading your articles from now on.
      Imho you are probably one of the abusive shorters. You are lamenting pretty loud about the SEC's steps - your favourite toy gets taken away for making profits on the back of other people?

      short selling has been abused as never before in history. No word from you about it. just weeping and crying foul now that the SEC at last cracks down.

      oh Bill, come on! Short selling has been abused , coupled with an onslought of fear spreading, fals rumours and concerted bair raids. It's telling that the hedge fund industry lobbied to get 'naked shorting' allowed again. Look at a stock like JOSB. depressed despite strong fundamentals. Short interest: 104.7% of float !!! 5% more shares short than exist in total!! instituional ownership: 171%!!! Oh, but this clearly abusive naked shoprting certainly had nothing to do with the stock's slump eh? and how come that it now jumped up in the face of a declining market.
      Tom Browns article is far more objective than your weeping and lamenting.
      But at least it is clear now, in which camp you are.
      Sep 19 05:38 AM
    • The Gains from Preventing a Great Depression [view article]
      in a depression once every 83 years?? WTF?? as if you could really get such a pattern over the last 500 years where tremendous changes have occured. this is laughable, indeed. Sep 18 05:43 AM
    • Analyst: Oil Prices Inflated by 50% [view article]
      wowo, 50% overvalued. based on what argument/data? adding reserves, pumping and transporting them does certainly cost more than 45-50$/bl. Of copurse, not in the gulf states but pretty everywehere else. at $50 a lot of marginal supply gets killed instantly. and these are the guys who matter. except of you believe that the saudis can pump any amount they want to pump. and that they would do so especially at $50/bl. Sorry, but people like Simmons are way more credible with thgeir arguments than this guy who just makes a silly prediction. can oil fall to 40-50$? of course, short term, on speculation and liquidation. but not for long. the big oil majord won't supply it at that price. why should they? they have enough cash now to survive even with shutting down half of their production.
      The guy has absolutely not understood the siemic shift that has taken place: from valuing oil at todays production costs versus total replacment costs       Sep 18 05:40 AM
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