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  • Financials: Bottoms Happen When Everyone's Convinced They Won't
    @E Nuff Said: when bill miller thinks that way - you should think twice.
    miller has become the prime example for how not to invest, for how not to fall into each and every value trap several times and how to not to ignore risk

    Tom: your thesis would certainly play out, IF the worst was really behind most banks and IF there were not trillions in off-balance sheet vehicles and IF the us consumer wasn't as overstretched and as indebted as he is these days. Unfortunately, all these three IFs are there and they make the outlook for most banks pretty dire.
    Aug 19 08:11 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Predicting the Bottom in Gold
    @malkiel and JasoC: you abviously have a short-term approach. of course, gold lags almost any other investment out there over the past 20, 30 or 40 years. that's undisputed. the point however is: what will these paper-asset returns be worth 20 or 30 years from now? There are close top 100 TRILLION in unfunded medicare, pension and medicaid liabilities in the USA. The picture for japan and Europe is hardly any better. So you can be pretty sure that either by inflating or by a sudden currency reform all these huge liabilities will be brought downto a fraction of their nominal value pf today - and at the same time the corresponding assets owned by households will be cut by the same factor. One of the very few things you cannot cut like this is gold (your own home being another one). Now, you are certaibly soooo smart to knwo in advance when this digital moment of devbt-resetting or hyperinflating will occur, no? and buy gold right the evening before.
    I have news for you: there may not be any physical gold that you can buy then. all you may get your hands on might be some paper contracts, etfs or the like. good luck with those as they could get terminated at any moment and you get paid worthless paper only.
    if you think about it, iz makes perfect sense: gold pays no interest, because it has the lowest risk of them all when it comes to payback time. it#s upon you to decide whether 4-5% for treasuries are worth the risk
    Aug 18 09:49 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Gold Bulls Predictably Sucked In
    as a long term investor concerned with the value of my portfolio and the safety of my financial well being, I couldn't care less about short-term traders who want to 'stay in the game'and therefore either have to sell in anticipation of >25% losses or not to touch gold at all. In fact, this approach is a the long term sure-fire receipt for mediocre returns on ANY investment.
    that being said, i still appreciate the author's perspective as one of the few things worth reading at SA besides tons of noise and outright dumb articles by myriads of authors
    Aug 18 09:37 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Everything They Tell You About Solar Is Wrong - Travis Bradford
    thin film? yeah right.- only that the raw materials required for that will not go down in price, but up - if they are available in the needed quantities at all. thin film in its current form will be dead 5 years from now. not to mention that it is one of the least efficient solar tecnologies out there.
    also the guy doesn't address at all the major problem with solar: cloudy skies and night time.

    regarding nuclear: listen mororns, like rdasher: storage is a HUGE problem - everywhere, Europe included. What most people and many analysts don't note and see is that the PUBLIC already SUBSIDISES NUCLEAR to the hilt! In germany, for inctance, exploration, closure of nuclear powers after thelifecycle ended, nuclear waste treatment and storage already costed more than 16 BILLION euros! And most storage problems and the costs for it will continue for well over THREE THOUSAND YEARS more!! Got that? NUCLEAR IS