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  • Gold and Silver Turn Bearish: No Conspiracy Here
    Bill, please tell me, what's your time horizon on your advice?
    What i am seeing is that the herd of big short-term oriented players (hedgefunds AND HB&B) rotates thorug the sectors in ever shoeter periods. Three months ago oil 200$ and further rises in the prices of base metals and grains were advertised convincingly citing emerging markets demand as driving those forr years to come.
    Now, a quarter later everything has changed and the bottom will fall out of the global economy?
    Give me a break! news and interpretations of data are changed in a second in order to explain any major market move. To me this is all noise and you are obviously keen on participating in that great shuffling game of chasing this sector than that then the next one, back to the first. That may be fine advice for daytraders or speculators with a 3-6 months time horizon. But for investors?
    So you called people to get out of gold at 940$/oz and now you are mulling over whether 800 or 840$ might be a good re-entry. Pleazzze! We are talking about 10-15% correction stuff here that you try to time. Or is that buying at 800 or 840 or lower also just another short-term flip-flopping? Such as your Cara100 that is getting changed pretty frequently as well?
    Aug 11 08:34 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • While Gartman is Goldless, I Still Itch for Commodities
    @Mark: If gold or any other commodity stays flat you won't earn a dime. However, smart and efficient producers of the stuff will make money and create value for their shareholders. Buying commodities futures was certainly smart 3 years ago. But now, and in general, it is one of the dumbest thing to do and has in any case zero to do with investing and everything to do with pure speculation.
    Aug 11 07:20 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The Emperor (Mr. Ackman) Has No Clothes
    Well, are you really so naive to think that Ackman ever believed the stuff he was telling the public day after day? All he needed to get done was to create enough fear and panick. Not to be right with his claims. I would certainly not be surprised to learn that he actually was now long the monoliners.
    That being said, the picture is not as rosy for ABK and MBi as you might think. They will be able to deal with their mistakes in the CDO business, sure. But their main business was insuring muni-bonds and if you look at the precarious state of the us economy and the quick deterioration of federal and municipal budgets (collapsing tax revenues!) this spells lots of trouble. I am cautiously long mbi/ABk, mostly senior debt, but expect substantial deductions from current book value estimates over the next 4-5 years.
    Aug 11 07:02 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The Crude Reality
    just another useless 'technical analysis' humbugthat claims to have a clue about future oil prices. technicak analysis is not all total crap - it can serve you well at times. But certainly not this usual trendline, oversold, overbought, macd etc. etc. nonsense. This works a few times by chance and loses you money in the long run with 100% accuracy.
    But people never learn. Every day another sucker is born who claims to have a clue and a truly predictive system when in fact, he just assembled the right data in the right way to show some random correlation and some predictive power. 90% of the often disregarded 'simply buy and hold'-investors are better off in the long run than the gazillion short-term traders with their data-mined and curve-fitted 'systems' Go figure.
    Aug 11 06:50 am |Rating: 0