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Stay Away from Yahoo Despite Persistent Microsoft Merger Rumors
you do not have enough brain to comment on anything "Period".
Inflation, Deflation and the U.S.-China Relationship
and you think china will stop supporting USD overning?? if i am not wrong they are the owner of 2 trillion USD in some form or fashion. if USD goes down 20% what will that do to their holdings??
what you are suggesting may happen one day......or may never happen, depends on how things play out.
if usa,europe etc goes into recession....china will suffer so much in the exports that its economy will be barely able to support enough jobs.
right now china's only goal is to increase its exports not decrease it.
yes every country in the world wants to become USA, ie, to have a huge consumer base supporting a big economy keeping employment below 6-8%.
but USA did not become one overnight, and it was definitely not planned....it happened by chance more than planning.
America Needs a Turnaround Plan
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i have been reading everywhere that now we are heading towards a great depression and not much can be done to make the pain less.
by great depressions, people are predicting that unemployment(official) will shoot up as much as 10-20%.
housing will fall another 30%(panic sales and foreclosures) and will stay there for 4-5 years.
businesses are going to now start laying off preparing for a long recession and consumers are already maxed out and scared hence they will pull back sharply, sending the consumption on a cliff dive.
stock market will go down further 10-20%, destroying wealth and bringing more angst to consumers.
but i feel that if the government wanted it can definitely lessen the pain by doing the below:
1. backstop housing by buying and removing from market all default/foreclosure property(will the current bailout plan do it?)
2. FED interest rate lowered to 0.5%, and mortgage interest lowered to 5%(fannie and freddie are gov entities and can loan money infinitely)
3.more benefits given to home buyers to help housing(how about increasing the short term tax break from 7500 to 25000, which can also be financed from IRA or 401k with no penalty)
3.stimulus checks every three months to help consumer income
4.Faciliate interbank lending by being the middle man(use the trust of the government).
5. Massive infrastructure projects to support job.
in other words...fight deflation and debt with inflation to stave off the sharp pain.
i think these are doable....but will they do it?
people may ask where will they get the money for all this, if i am not wrong government can still borrow at less than 5%, and if FED rate is lowered and we go into recession people will be happy to loan the government at less than 4%.
since price of food and energy is going down, there is no more worry that more money into the system will cause inflation.
right now money is getting destroyed faster than FED can inject money into the system
Still Bullish on Salesforce.com
how long is it going to take you to accept that this bear market is not right for overpriced stocks....how is the EMC or VMW play working for you?
CRM is completely bullshit stock...its some how kept pumped up by its holders who are mostly big fund managers, who refuse to book loss and keep looking for opportunties to squeeze the shorts.
some how big muscle shorts have not entered this stock....once they enter this stock it will be in 10s-20s.
trading at a p/e > 200 in a bear market.....well i am missing something, maybe they will grow their earnings 100% Q to Q for the next 2-3 years...
Prepare to Sell Monday - Cramer's Mad Money (9/19/08)
he can simply give a portfolio....for people to follow....if he wants he can charge money.
he can give daily sell and buy calls. at a particular price tag.
but i am sure he does not do such a thing....to easy to prove he is as worthless as any fund manager....
hard to make money in a bear market......and even a chimp can pick stocks in a bull market.
if cramer already has a set portfolio....can some one give me a link...google search is not returning anything specific.
i know that cramer owns EMC for his trust.....its only down 50% YTD.
i also know he recommended RIMM at 119, its only down 15%.
Apple Credit Spreads: Targeting 500% Return
in this bear market...expecting on a big upside is not as fruitful as betting that this quality stock will not go another 40% down. and since i am selling premium, i earn money with each passing day.
but with government hands on intervention, my gut tells me that maybe we will start recovery in credit market....leading to recovery in mortgage/housing....le... to stock market rally.....and business expansion.
we will know for sure next week.
Apple Credit Spreads: Targeting 500% Return
which means i am protected from loss all the way till apple drops to 78, at which point i can choose to go long apple.
i hedged that position by buying one strike 80, Jan 2009 puts, for around $100 (yes its expensive, but if apple tanks below $90 due to high volatility, i can sell this put and wait for recovery).
my margin requirement for above position is only $2000.
and i dont have pray for apple to go up a lot...
Could Dell and Salesforce.com Merge Someday?
The $64 Trillion Question: What's the Dollar Really Worth?
but USA is established and respected military and economic power, which already has strong base in middle east, and has allies all over the world.
Steve Ballmer: Time To Come Back to Yahoo
MSFT has never shown interest for a complete buyout after they walked out, and thats the reason the big institutions voted for yang rather than Icahn.
with Icahn there was no other choice than sell yahoo to msft for whatever price...
but ever since then nobody has come out with a statement/plan to maximise shareholder value..which is why yahoo is melting down.
and maybe MSFT and Icahn want yahoo to go down all the way to $15, so that MSFT's $23-25 offer will look great.
Outlook for the Indian Economy
here are my doubts about india:
1. Politicians as always, and everywhere, dont care about long term benefits to the country or society, hence they are not solving infrastructure problems which is becoming a bottleneck for growth.
2. private investment in infrastructure is very risky (bangalore-mysore freeway is mired in red-tape since 7-8 years) hence i dont see infrastructure improving much.
3. in china thats is never a issue, its get done by the party, and it does appear that the party is interested in promoting china as a super power, its not the case in india (they are busy looting for themselves till they are in power).
i am not an economist hence i am clueless about the problems infrastructure presents to economic growth, please shed some light?
India has gone through a real estate boom, which maybe going bust right now. most of it was done with atleast 10-20% down payment, but if there is any pressure on jobs, we can see defaults go through the sky since most people spend almost 50% of income to service the mortgage.
Six Reasons To Buy China Soon
i hope he is not including the price of a house...which has gone up 1000% in some locations in the past 4-5 years.
according to me the biggest cost of of living in india is commodities and energy.
and if i am not wrong, the cost of commodity and energy is almost same all over the world (+-5%), so if inflation in india is 25%, then it has to be atleast 15% all over the world.
i am not in india but i have family and friends and if we exclude the housing thing, inflation is definitely not 25%, yes it is more than 7-8%, but that is mostly due to commodities and energy skyrocketing all over the world.
by the same measure real inflation must more than 6-7% even in usa. (cost of gas itself is more than 30% YoY)
another thing, if the currency of india is not depreciating against USD, then it does not matter if inflation is 20% or 40%, for a non-indian investor.
and in the past 2-3 years, indian currency has appreciated against the dollar.
From India: you sound like an elitist.....when you say wages are rising....what do you expect, inflation is high but wages to stay stagnant??
Appetite for Risk? Buy Some RIMM
i think you need to check your numbers..
BB dont cost that much per user....recently we switched from BB to a motorla Q something using activeSync....and the reason was not cost, but better sync without having to hookup to laptop.
plus IT can manage the service on their own, no need to deal with Blackberry support.
so the author thinks that people will buy new bold....just because it came out, i am not sure its that simple....businesses dont spend on new handset unless its past the 2 year period and they are entitled for some discount.
plus there are hundreds of competition to BB these days using ActiveSync....
i think RIMM is going to do ok for another 2 quarters and after that all bets are off ( i will start a small short position if it crossed 145, and will keep adding as it goes up, the momentum may carry it all the way to 160 or higher....but that will be heaven for top sellers)
Economic Report Summary: Housing Market Getting Worse, Not Better
Economic Report Summary: Housing Market Getting Worse, Not Better
so you are saying we are out of woods......not so fast...
housing is still not affordable in most places, mortgage rates have gone up, and maybe we will need 20% downpayment to get a mortgage.
the market rally was due to oil/commodity going down and dollar flowing in to usa from abroad.....its just a reversal of short dollar trade.
it may last for a while...maybe 5-10% in broad market, but we are still not done with problems in the financials/credit markets.
but inflation going down is definitely a positive sign for the economy.