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  • Are Clawback Provisions an Admission of Poor Risk Management?
    Current risk/reward metrics are weighted too much towards traders at the expense of those providing trading capital. Clawbacks are an imperfect but neccessary tool to re-tilt the playing field a bit.
    Dec 10 15:52 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Demonic Short Sellers
    If you can prove your assertion (show your sources and work) I would be more inclined to believe you were on the up and up. Instead I think you are just one more short seller trying to change the subject.
    Nov 25 17:34 pm |Rating: +1 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Demonic Short Sellers
    Hence the need for complete transparencey, particulary with respect to statements about the market or individual companies. When a noted hedge or mutual fund manager publlically opines that comapny A is (a) a great investment, or (b) is headed for the crapper, the opiner should be required to disclosue whether they are long or short the company, including the impact of CDS positions.

    Financial media should be required to disclose their sources and source exposure to the comapny on which they are providing data. Period.
    Nov 25 15:08 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Demonic Short Sellers
    The real problem with the CDS market is that buyers don't need to have an insurable interest when buying or selling a CDS. In the bad old days of individual insurance, this lack of insurable interest lead to speculators buying life insurance on some unsuspecting soul, then hiring someone else to do in the insured so that the policy ownere could collect.

    Kind of like what seems ot be going on in the CDS space today, except that buyers of CDS coverage don't need to hire intermediaries to kill the insured. All they need to do is give away stories for free to the media who will happilly help kill any organization in return for eyeballs.

    A CDS is not de facto a bad thing, but without transparency and a clear insurable inteerest, the CDS marklet is driving lots of unintended and perhaps quite evil consequences.
    Nov 25 14:03 pm |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • GM: Bankruptcy Is No Longer an Option
    Alan, an excellent and absolutely correct analysis! If this is extended to the entire auto industry (Ford, Chrylser and the most closley connected supliers with UAW-type cost structures) as it must since that entire industry is in the same state of crisis, one component of a lasting solution should be to nationalize the pension problem in some way. Otherwise, the industry will be back in ten years with the same set of problems.

    Detroit needs to rest its employee cost structure to more closely match Toyota et al.
    Nov 23 21:57 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The Right Kind of Bailout
    In a perfect world that isn't already in crisis because of the Wall Street mess, Shelby woudl be right - let the auto's collapse and trust that the capital markets will fund a new, smaller and nimbler industry. But wait - the capital markets are's working now, so that woudl be an incredibly stupid thing to do woudln't it?

    The auto industry needs an industry-wide horoic solution to the non competative legacy beneftis package that keeps dragging them down. Something like the rairoad retirement system that was established early in last century to resolve the legacy rairoad pension system.

    The auto industry was THE significant driver in creating the post-WW II midle class. Think of the increase in the number of cars per capita over thr past 50 years and the establishment of the great American surban landscape. For better or worse, auto's were the driver, and the country can't just discard the aging workforce that was at the heart of this process.

    Solution: a prepackaged reorganization of the entire industry that begins with a nationalized auto retirement system (income and health insurance), funded over a long future period by profit participation from the new unfettered re-capitalized businesses. Force the UAW to accept a radically restured work environment and wage structure in return for full government guarentees of the auto retirement system.

    Nov 14 15:39 pm |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Comcast Looks Incredibly Cheap
    Crappy dividend. Another baseball card.
    Oct 24 10:31 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Understanding Credit Default Swaps: A Case for Regulation
    Imagine a market that would allow you to buy life insurance on a randomly selected individual. In fact, if you go back a hundred or more years, that market existed and lead to a fair amount of abuse as could well be imagined (like buying insurance on someone and then nudging them towards dangerous activities). The life insurance market evolved so that today you cannot purchase insurance on someone when you don't have an insurable interest in seeing them continue to be alive on this good earth.

    It would seem to make perfect sense to limit CDS purchases using some sorrt of dynamic insurable interest standard that would limit the size of the CDS market to the amount of the investments being insured, and would require that an entity buying and holding a CDS has an ongoing equivalent insurable interest in the underlying security that is being insured through the CDS.
    Oct 23 11:07 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Credit Default Swaps, Part One: Origins and Implementations
    If principal risk can be fully insured via a vibrant CDS market, why should there be a yield difference amongst corporate bonds with differnt credit grades, and for that matter why should coporate yields be significantly higher than Treasury yields?
    Oct 20 10:57 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Fundamental Valuation: How Low Could We Go?
    It doesn't make any sense to look a price vs. book without interest rate context. For example, today risk-free long Treasuries are yielding half what they were in the early 1980's. Hence all other things being equal, current PE ratios could be twice what they were in the early 80's without being particulary out of wack.
    Oct 18 12:22 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Financial Crisis: The Blaming of the Nerds
    Where do these people (the ones who state with absolute authority that ACORN is an ant iAmerican organization) come from?

    I'm actually quite worried that there will be a neo-con reactionary backlash after Obama wins that could push the US into a very unpleasant state.
    Oct 13 20:11 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The Longs are Getting Squeezed
    So today they are shorting everyghing else. We are in a race to the bottom driven by unbridled short interest. Think about it for a moment: If a stock float is 100 shares, one can borrow all 100 shares and sell them inot the market, thereby inflating the float by 100%.

    Our financial system cannot stand the waterfall effect of doubling the available shares of every stock one by one, which appears to be what is happening. The end game will be to starve all companies of new capital (can't sell new shares to expand if your stock has been driven down 50% by short sellers.)

    What a great outcome for our country.
    Oct 09 15:12 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Did Derivatives Cause the Crisis?
    Felix, I'm puzzled by the notion that $1T of bad mortgage paper is worse that $65T of wildly gyrating CDS paper.
    Oct 09 10:30 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Bailout Datapoint of the Day, AIG Edition
    I though ther terms of the bail out required AIG to pay interest on the $85B even if they didn't draw it down. Thsu they woudl be stupid not to draw it an invest it to try to at least break even.
    Oct 03 13:29 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Hedge Funds Eat Their Young
    An extremely elegant solution!
    Oct 03 13:26 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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