Ames Tiedeman

http://amestiedeman.com

660 Comments

    • Finding Relative Value in Financial Services [view article]
      All of your relative value plays go lower. The financials are melting down again.
      Stay away from all of these names.       Aug 21 08:12 AM
    • Automaker Rebadging Revisited [view article]
      This was one of the worst pieces I have read. Your premise is wrong. The VOLT is going to be a Chevrolet. This is damn good news for GM and the American consumer. The last thing GM would want to do is to sell the VOLT under another manufacturers name!!! Can you be more stupid???? The Chevrolet brand is not weak. Cars like the Malibu and Cobalt are sold out to 2010. Wake up! The Corvette is a Chevrolet. The new Camaro is a Chevrolet. Get a clue! Chevrolet is the #1 selling car brand in the USA. Aug 18 09:10 AM
    • NVIDIA's Long-Term Prospects Mean It's Currently Undervalued [view article]
      Your premise that NVDA is not going to lose any market share is insane. NVDA is still undervalued, may go lower still, but they WILL LOSE MARKET SHARE TO ATI/AMD. The new graphics chips from AMD are excellent and they consume less power. Read any trade publication and people who know far more than you are suggesting that NVDA is bound to lose some market share given the new AMD offerings. Why do you think the stock has been cut in half the past couple of months? Their INVENTORIES ARE BUILDING AS THEIR SALES ARE FALLING AND AMD IS TAKING MARKET SHARE...!! Aug 05 07:23 AM
    • Canadian Oil Sands, Penn West Energy Protected on the Downside [view article]
      PWE is being given away here. HTE, PGH, PVX and AAV are all highly attractive with this pullback as well. They are all now trading at their lowest levels in months. When oil was $70.00 PGH was over 17.00. It is now under $17.00 and oil is over 120. One of the reasons these issues have dropped so hard is that there is worry on the street about these companies hedging policies and practices. I have been adding to my positions the past 3 trading days and will continue to add, as this fear about hedging is now well built into the stock prices at these levels. This is an opportunity to capture substantial yields for the long haul. (5 to 7 years) Aug 04 10:08 PM
    • General Discussion on GM
      Yes, the new Camaro will help GM. My guess is they can sell 15,000 units a month by the second year. The new Camaro will not save GM, but it will help GM. Aug 03 11:16 AM
    • California Signaling A Housing Bottom? [Housing Tracker] [view article]
      Greenspan on housing:

      Greenspan Says Housing Prices Not Yet Near Bottom (Update1)
      By Steve Matthews

      July 31 (Bloomberg) -- Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said falling U.S. home prices are ``nowhere near the bottom'' and the resulting market turmoil isn't showing signs of abating.

      While the odds of a recession are 50-50, achieving stable markets will ``take a while,'' Greenspan said today in a CNBC interview.

      The economy grew at a 1.9 percent annualized rate in the second quarter after expanding 0.9 percent in the first quarter, the Commerce Department said in Washington. Gross domestic product was revised to show a contraction in the final three months of 2007.

      More Americans filed claims for unemployment insurance last week than at any time in more than five years, the Labor Department said. Fed policy makers have cut the benchmark rate to 2 percent from 5.25 percent since September, halting the reductions in June amid rising concern about inflation.

      Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the largest sources of money for U.S. home loans, are a ``major accident waiting to happen,'' Greenspan said. ``The solution'' is the ``nationalization'' of the companies, he said.

      After the former Fed chairman spoke, Washington-based Fannie Mae dropped 69 cents, or 5.7 percent, to $11.52 at 3:48 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. Freddie Mac fell 55 cents, or 6.3 percent, to $8.18.

      ``It important that we focus on stabilizing the financial system,'' Greenspan said. Policy makers also need to reconcile slowing economic growth with rising prices, he said.

      The U.S. faces ``a very substantial change in the balance between growth and inflation,'' Greenspan said.
       Aug 03 10:49 AM
    • Bill Miller on This Tough Market [view article]
      Kelly,

      This is one of the few times in the past 50 years that so many industries have been hit with so much trouble at the same time: Auto, Finance, Mortgage, Housing/Construction, and now Retail, is starting to hurt too. The American consumer seems to be running out of cash but the plastic may keep us out of a full blown recession. We won't know until 2009. What you have been suggesting and seeing is real. America does not have the economic scale we had just 25 years ago. When you export your jobs, run a 700 billion dollar trade deficit and have stagnant wages for 15 years it is very alarming when the economy slows down. One has to ask ones self what industry(s) will pick things back up. In 1981 it was autos and construction. In the 1990' it was high tech. In 2008 it is????? We do not have the economic scale anymore and so many industries are crushed it will be a waiting game. I have a hunch that the turning point comes the end of next year. I think GM will do much better in 2009 and I think most real estate markets will begin to finally bottom by Q3, 2009. There is light at the end of the tunnel. This light is simply dim because our trade and economic policies have been very, very stupid.       Aug 02 09:09 PM
    • Sun Beats Estimates, But Outlook Dicey [view article]
      Sun cannot compete with Dell. Period. Aug 02 08:50 PM
    • California Signaling A Housing Bottom? [Housing Tracker] [view article]
      California? Southern California? Look at the demographics. Who is going to support the home prices in the big cities like San Diego and Los Angeles? What jobs are being produced to support home prices that are still far ahead of the 50 years trend line? Prices will keep falling. Some areas like La Jolla may bounce back sooner than others, but the basic situation remains quite bleak. The median income is higher in Huntsville, Alabama than San Diego, Ca. How homes in San Diego can be over even $300,000 is beyond mathematical reason. When only 18% of the populous can afford a median priced home (this is the case in San Diego) a market has not bottomed. People are leaving the big cities of California in droves. Take away the illegal alien criminals flooding into California and one can see that California has had a net migration out of the state regularly since 1998. This is the first real downturn in California real estate history where the state will not have a huge influx of educated workers from other parts of the country to boost the housing market. This is what many are failing to recognize. In most down economic periods California was always the last in and the first out of a recession or slowdown. This was primarily because of the huge influx of "California Dreamers" that supported everything from the job demands of silicon valley to the track homes of Southern California. Today just the opposite is happening. Places like Iowa, Colorado, Idaho, Texas and Georgia are seeing a ton of California refugees fleeing high homes prices and a culture gone mad. Up next, the great migration back to the mid-west that you will see in the coming 25 years. White flight will take on a whole new meaning. The future of California real estate is not completely horrific. It just won't ever boom like it just did. The one thing America has for itself it is is always "becoming" and is never finished. Perhaps in to generations California will be golden again. Aug 02 08:44 PM
    • Semiconductor Returns a Function of Financials [view article]
      I fully expect the SOXX to recover over the next 36 months. The opportunity found in SNDK and NVDA are once decade opportunities. The opportunity in AMD if it can make itself right is one in an investors lifetime. Aug 02 03:18 PM
    • Too Late to the Oil Party? Consider an Alternative (Part II) [view article]
      It is becoming increasingly harder to find winners in the solar space. JASO is reliant on Spain for too much of its sales. Uncertainty in Spain is why this issues has been decimated. Earning for 2009 look good on paper, but are they real? Aug 02 03:09 PM
    • 3 Portfolios for a Steady Cash Flow [view article]
      Investors looking at the Canadian Oil Trusts should take note that many of their share prices were right where they are now or higher when oil was trading at $70.00 a barrel. Further, the yields on these issues should not be treated with skepticism but embraced as sound and reliable. Canada is the number one oil reserve nation. Russia and the Saudi Arabia are both below Canada in reserves. Canada has well over a 100 year supply of oil at 2005 proven reserve levels. Much more oil will be found in Canada in my opinion. PGH, PWE, HTE, PVX and AAV need to be considered if you are looking for Monthly income and you can hold these issues for at least 5 years. Aug 02 03:07 PM
    • Ford Increases Lease Prices, GMAC Ends Canadian Leases [view article]
      Ford should abandon leases on its SUV's completely. It should move to a model of low financing. Ford simply cannot recycle these lease returned SUV's into the market place again. I never knew the acronyms SUV and SIV would both mean horror! One horror for the auto industry and another horror for the banking/finance industry! Aug 02 03:01 PM
    • How Is GM Still Alive? [view article]
      Felix,

      You are confusing accounting rules with operational realities. GM did not lose $15.50 billion in cash. This was a write down. An accounting write down. Now, when GM writes down assets is has lees to borrow from. But GM still has over $15 billion in cash and the actual real cash burn this past quarter was about $2.3 billion. Assuming things get no worse (they may get much worse) and not much better (they may get much better) then GM has 7 quarters of cash left. GM told the world that they will be raising several billion. My guess is their news cash will come from three possibilities:
      1. Selling assets. Keep in mind, both Fiat and VW are looking for production capacity in the U.S. GM may sell a plant to either these Italians or to the Germans
      2. GM can issue debt or convertible securities might be a smarter move
      3. GM can issue more common and dilute the common at the same time.

      GM is far from bankruptcy. I see GM doing much better after 2010. Now, bankruptcy would not be that bad a move for GM, however. It would give them the room to deal with the unions in a more affective way and it would also allow them to shed their pension and medical liabilities as well. One must remember, over the past 15 years GM paid about $50 billion in medical costs to their retirees and about $50 billion in pensions. They only paid about $15 billion in dividends to their shareholders. One has to ask themselves, who owns GM given the above calculus?       Aug 02 02:57 PM
    • Thanks, Chris! Love, ProShares [view article]
      kk, The volatility is high because SKF returns 2x the inverse of the Dow Jones Financial Index. This investment product is designed to be volatile. This is the point.

      SKF:

      The investment seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, which correspond to twice the inverse of the daily performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Financials index. The fund normally invests 80% of assets in financial instruments with economic characteristics that should be inverse to those of the index. It may employ leveraged investment techniques in seeking its investment objective. The fund is nondiversified.

      UYG produces 2x the Dow Jones U.S. Financials index. You buy this if you think that the index is going up.

      Some people buy a 100% position in one, and a 50% position in the other as a hedge. (SKF and UYG)       Aug 02 02:42 PM
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