Global Warming Examiner

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  • Solar Breaks Oil Price Dependence
    The price of oil should not directly affect the demand for solar cells. Solar creates electricity while oil is used for transportation. Solar will be more affected by the ability of utilities to burn more coal, cost of natural gas (alternative to solar assuming you can't burn coal), price and availability of wind power.
    Tax credits for solar power are currently the biggest factor in demand. Due to governments indecisive nature on future credits, solar stocks can have very large price swings as expectations change with political fortune. US government will be deciding on extending credits that expire the end of this year.
    Sep 02 14:39 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • BHP Billiton: Painting a Happy Face on Iron Ore
    Should a country that is importing a lot of the raw materials to make steel also be a major exporter? Their tax structure provides incentives to exporters. If only the US would understand that the mandates and other taxes applied to our steel industry make us less competitive with China.
    Aug 29 18:23 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • How You Can Invest in the Pickens Plan
    The key to Pickens' plan is what our nation does with coal. If we continue to build coal-fired power plants (with all the carbon emissions) then the lower cost of electricity will not support the building of wind farms. If we restrict or prohibit new coal-fired power plants then long term marginal electric costs will be based on the cost of natural gas-fired power plants. In this scenario, wind power is cost effective and will displace natural gas as Pickens envisions. That will free up natural gas for other uses like displacing more expensive petroleum to power our automobiles.

    I don't believe many more coal-fired plants will be built because environmentalists have been successful in challenging them on economic grounds:
    Global Warming will cause restrictions on future carbon emissions so coal plant operators may not be able to recover their capital costs over the long operating life of these plants. If built the shareholders will loose money because the public utility commissions that regulate these plants will not allow the cost to be passed to the consumers and without that guarantee the utility companies will not build the plants.

    Natural Gas fired electric production costs have now become the base cost for electric production in this country.

    (Clean coal has too much carbon emissions and sequestering coal plant emissions has not be shown to work yet and may never work at an acceptable cost for large scale plants.)
    Aug 21 14:48 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • While Natural Gas Production Increases, Company Stock Prices May Not
    One way to lower carbon dioxide emissions and clean up our air is to substitute natural gas for coal. Coal has almost twice the carbon emissions for the same amount of electricity produced as natural gas, not even counting the releases of mercury and other toxic byproducts from burning coal. Substituting natural gas for coal would be an intermediate step in reducing carbon emissions and give us time to develop more 'perfect' renewable resources like wind and solar. All the government has to do is prohibit the construction of new coal plants and start restricting emissions from existing plants.
    Aug 13 17:29 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • What the Fed's Latest Decision Means for Investors
    The economy is slow and inflation seems to be under control because bank lending is contracting due to their loan problems. When they have less money to lend, credit in the economy contracts. The Fed is doing everything it can to increase liquidity and get credit expanding again. They can print as much money as they need to fix the banks problems.

    It really is a matter of timing. After the banks start expanding loans again, all this liquidity will cause an excessive amount of credit which will fire up inflation. It will be more difficult for the Fed to remove this excess liquidity once it is out in the economy without very high interest rates, reserve requirements. This excess liquidity being pumped into the economy now will be the fuel for future inflation, although it may be slow to show up because banks have not yet started to expand credit. It will eventually show up, by definition just when the bank credit problems look like they are getting better. Good article.
    Aug 06 16:56 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Solar's Warm, But Not Hot - Barron's
    Subsidies to renewable energy, including solar, is one thing that congress agrees on.
    Jul 21 14:22 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Is There Value in Silicon Solar PV?
    All of the silicon solar companies are growing capacity rapidly. Some analysts seem to think that this growth will eventually push the group off a cliff as governments remove or reduce incentives for solar systems. This assumption is based on the fact that as production increases, solar incentives will become more costly for governments to fund.
    What is most likely to happen is that governments will reduce solar system incentives. This is not a problem for the industry as the costs of solar are decreasing. The cost of alternatives to solar like natural gas are increasing. That means governments can still get solar power to grow in the future with smaller incentives. Other uses like solar panels on electric cars could create additional demand. Hopefully solar will reach a point where it will grow without incentives.
    There are a lot of companies that are researching and even producing solar from thin-film technology. But they can not meet all of the demand from the market so silicon based solar still has tremendous room to grow. Many of the solar companies are sold out into next year. Article on my web site: "Solar Cell Manufacturers Have Room To Grow" shows how small a contribution solar is currently making to world electric production. Shorting these companies, especially the ones that have raised guidance is very dangerous. I am long CSIQ and TSL.
    Jul 15 12:49 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Solar Shorts Keep On Rising Even As Oil Surprises
    When you compare the cost of solar to other energy sources, solar used to be compared to the cost of coal. Since it will be very difficult to build a new coal-fired power plant now due to global warming considerations, the cost of solar should now be compared to the cost of natural gas. Maybe this is why solar seems to track with oil prices. New solar electric production will displace natural gas electric production. The cost of natural gas is rising while the cost of solar is dropping.

    There are also new applications for solar that could add to demand over the years. Toyota is planning to put solar panels on its Prius in 2010. This could be a developing trend with all electric and hybrid electric cars. As I discussed on my website, solar on a car is cost effective. The solar energy is displacing more expensive gasoline so the electricity produced on a car is worth 31.5 cents per Kwh based on $4.00 gasoline. At $5.00 gasoline the electricity produced is worth 40 cents per Kwh.
    Jul 14 14:01 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The 'Problem' With Solar Companies is Not Really a Problem
    Solar still requires subsidies as the cost is higher than comparable fossil fuel power. The cost of fossil fuel is going up and the cost of solar is going down. Some solar uses are cost effective now. I would expect that solar subsidies will drop per unit, but not be eliminated. Even will Spain cutting back subsidies, they are not the only country. There should still be enough demand for the industry to grow rapidly for the next several years.
    Jul 03 14:52 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Will Some Solar Companies Face a Cash Crunch?
    These companies are making profits but sucking up cash. That would be expected as they are growing very rapidly. They need tremendous amounts of money to pay for new equipment plus the working capital to fund rapidly growing inventory. This would be typical for all rapidly growing manufacturing companies and does not by itself indicate a problem.
    These companies only get into a problem if demand for solar modules diminishes. I posted an article on my website: examiner.com/x-325-Glo...~y2008m5d20-Solar-Cell... where I explain why I think there will be no shortage in demand for solar cells.
    Jul 02 13:51 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • How the Fed's Decision Impacts You
    Good Article. The Fed is clearly keeping interest rates low to bail out the banks. Inflation will eventually start to take up the price of assets like houses and then all the mortgages and lines of credit become good again.
    Someone will have to pay for this. The government is effectively debasing our currency so people with savings, bonds, or fixed incomes will fare the worst. Owning real assets as the author described seems like good protection to me. I am currently looking for asset classes other than metals or oil that might offer protection from inflation. Was looking specifically at REITS. If anyone has on opinion on these, post an article or comment.
    Jun 26 14:14 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The 'Peak Oil' Myth: New Oil Is Plentiful
    The economics of higher oil prices cause us to seek ever more marginal and expensive petroleum resources. Sources like oil shale contain a lot of oil potential, but it is hugely expensive to extract that oil, both from a dollar cost and global warming prospective. We should be drilling our best, cleanest oil prospects now like ANWR and offshore, to give us time to develop clean alternatives so we don't end up producing from oil shale.
    Jun 23 13:17 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Selling Some Yingli and Trina Solar on Dead Cat Bounce
    Don't confuse short term moves with long term trends. These stocks are very volatile. I discussed the long term potential of these stocks on my web site in the article 'Solar Cell Manufacturers Have Room to Grow'. Basically all of the solar cell manufacturers combined produce only a tiny fraction (0.17%) of world total electric production capacity in 2007. I like solar companies because they could triple production for several years before they catch up with demand. Trading: assume the long term trend is higher; buy the dips and sell the rallies.
    I am long term long CSIQ and TSL.
    Jun 17 14:15 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Oshkosh's Diesel Electric Hybrid Monster Truck
    I can't predict when electric cars will become viable options. Tesla is currently selling an all-electric car with a $109,000 price tag. It has very high end performance like 3.9 0 to 60 speed. 220 mile range. GM may be selling the Chevy Volt in 2010. That tells me that the battery technology is getting better. I look at this like many electronic devices where the first generation devices are bulky and expensive. Successive generations produce improved products at lower costs. Flat screen TVs, computers, cell phones, video games, etc are all examples. How fast electric cars happen, I don't know, but I do expect it will be worth watching.
    Jun 17 11:32 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Homeowner Equity at Post WWII Low
    I am not surprised that home equity is lower with falling home prices. But that may not be the only reason. With interest rates below the inflation rate, the prospect of the dollar continuing to fall, and investments available in hard assets and/or foreign currencies; wouldn't it make sense to borrow against your home at a fixed rate with the plan on paying it off later with 'cheaper' dollars even if you could pay off the loan balance now.
    Jun 05 19:04 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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