westwest888

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Two Market Indicators: Gold and Baltic Dry Index

Gold hasn't reached a high in dollars but has reached a high in euros and pounds. The dollar is temporarily strong because European banks have a high demand for dollars to cover their losses in dollar denominated instruments. Specifically, AIG losses, Lehman losses, ARS, ABS, MBS, CMBS securities. When the losses are covered, the dollar goes back to where it was.

You should read Brad Setser at CFR before you post, bro.
Oct 17 08:48 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
New Treasury Supply: Did It Already Cost Taxpayers $240 Million Today?

Owen - lemme guess, default is impossible because it's a 10 standard deviation event in your model. I would short treasuries, except the counterparty won't be able to pay when I'm right because they have no money.
Oct 08 17:10 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
New Treasury Supply: Did It Already Cost Taxpayers $240 Million Today?

You make a very good point. This bond issue had to compensate buyers an extra 40 basis points or it would have failed. This will ramp the cost of rolling over all existing US debt (11 trillion) which has an average maturity of 3 years. That increases the interest portion of the Congressional budget and inches us closer to the end game - DEFAULT.
Oct 08 15:31 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
California Home Sales: 43% Year Over Year Increase!

"Your" an idiot.
Aug 27 12:24 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Home Prices Have Stopped Falling: The Statistics Are Skewed

Pop quiz, based on your hypothesis that home prices have reached a nominal bottom.

Home price year 0 = $400,000.
Home price year 5 = $400,000.

How much did the home appreciate?

Answer: It depreciated 26%. There was inflation.

In a more likely scenario it depreciates AND gets eaten by inflation. Hello 50% off.
Aug 21 15:39 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Home Prices Have Stopped Falling: The Statistics Are Skewed

You could post date your article August 21, 2011 and your bottom call would be wrong - like Ben Stein wrong, Daniel Mudd wrong, David Lereah wrong.

The "green zone" for house prices is a maximum of 3x income or 120x rent. By either measure in any top 20 US city, we'd still need to fall another 50% to be in the green zone. But that's not the bottom, that's just the MAXIMUM affordable, sustainable home price. The bottom in some cases is 1/4 current asking prices. As for REO inventory, you'd better hope private equity approaches these banks and buys 50,000 houses from them in bulk with financing. Like $0.50 on the dollar, $0.10 down, 80% financed. A call option. LOL.
Aug 21 15:34 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Why I Finally Bought Fannie Mae

You look like a thug from Scarface in your photo. Oh yeah, and you just made a hellacious trade!

Investing 101 - common stock is an option on the profits for the next 50 years, secondary to bond holders and preferred stock holders. And in this case, the US Treasury, Russia, China and Japan.
Aug 21 10:20 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
How Low Before Housing Blows?

If now is a good time to buy, later is a good time to pay half as much. Only now is not a good time to buy. And later than later will be 1/4 as much as now.
Aug 20 14:25 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
What's Driving Fannie and Freddie

Maybe the bond market is projecting the new cost of Treasury debt, in the agency spreads. In other words, when the Treasury bails out FNM, FRE, here are your new costs for the 5y and 10y.
Aug 20 13:48 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Options Trader: Monday Outlook

XOM makes $30b. AAPL makes $3.5b and they're only 10% of the computer market. Sounds like AAPL needs to pay their fair share. Windfall profits tax is in order. Give a rebate to everyone who bought an iPod on their credit card, so they can pay their credit card bill.
Aug 11 12:27 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
16 Stocks That Are Paying My College Tuition

Uh, do you have $2000 in positions in 20 stocks? I found it hard to make money taking positions less than, say, $5000.
Aug 11 10:03 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Are Short Sales Shorting the Real Estate Market?

Short sales are just a carrot the banks use to get homeowners to keep making payments. If they were astute, they'd know it's never happening and the bank is conning them out of a dozen PMTs they could have walked away from. I don't think short sales are fake inventory, rather future inventory. Clearly these homes will be foreclosed on. Get used to the banking system being the biggest landlord in the country, with more inventory than new homebuilders combined.

8 or 9% interest would be great for young buyers (anyone under 30). You can refinance away interest; you can't refinance away $500,000 of principal on a 3br 1ba house. Let prices fall.
Jul 18 19:04 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Why It's Time to Invest in Domestic Banks

Oh, it's that easy. Just take the deposits and invest them in high yield instruments. What about the fact that those banks on average have 67% of their assets in US real estate? You know, the stuff that is going to go down another 50% in price?
Jul 18 14:34 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Busted: 6 Economic Myths

I calculate that $12 trillion in US real estate and $10 trillion in US equities will be wiped out.
Jun 26 12:44 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Really, Really Bad News About Oil

Dubai is not a country. I stopped reading after that glaring error...
Jun 03 10:19 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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Stocks discussed in the lightning round session of Jim Cramers Mad Money TV program,
Wednesday, October 15.

Bullish Calls:

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