bcncv

Comment Stream

Comment Stream
Filter comments by:
Highest rated Latest comments
Or filter by symbol:
  • Global Earnings Downturn Only 25% Done - Citi
    I have trouble buying the argument that earnings will fall by 50%. I'm sure that earnings will continue to fall, but by half? That's a stretch. Being such an arbitrarily round number is also suspicious.

    Now I'm not foolish enough to try and predict the stock market, but this sounds suspiciously like those predictions of oil at $200 and Google at $1,000. It's more likely an analyst looking for some sensationalism rather than a rational analysis.
    Jan 09 01:52 am |Rating: 0 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Obama Doubles Down
    I wouldn't take this analysis to far. What makes Obama a brilliant politician is his ability to imply multiple things while actually promising something much smaller.
    Jan 07 22:23 pm |Rating: +3 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Broadband: Why Government Investment Is Justified Now
    The premise of laying new capacity is that there are many place that do not have access to broadband. Conversely, your statistics reference people that actually use broadband.

    To justify laying new capacity, you should be using statistics relating to household accessibility to broadband. A quick google search will tell you that these statistics are not nearly as negative as your comparative usage statistics.

    This suggests that money could be better spent by making computers easier to use, and providing relevant uses for people that are content without the internet.
    Jan 03 18:29 pm |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Broadband: Why Government Investment Is Justified Now
    This is pure silliness. My broadband internet is a third of the cost of my cell phone bill. Sure, its not a direct fiber optics line, but very few people have a need for that. Unless you're downloading high definition movies or pirating music, most people don't need more than $15 DSL. The marginal benefit of cutting postal time in half is vastly different than cutting milliseconds off an email.

    The primary reason that we're lagging in the connectivity rankings has more to do with demand than access. I still know a number of people that simply don't want an internet connection in their house for a variety of reasons.

    The real payoff would come from investing in education instead of mindlessly laying thousands of miles of fiber.
    Jan 02 23:40 pm |Rating: +5 -4 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Returning to a Gold Standard Is a Bad Idea
    It's refreshing to see a realistic look at the gold standard. I was getting a little bit tired of hearing about a gold standard tripling GDP, eliminating waste in the system, preventing Armageddon and curing cancer.

    I disagree with the assessment on the predicted downfall of the dollar as a reserve currency. The worldwide meltdown has resulted in a much larger flight to US Treasuries than a flight from the dollar. Sure there was a lot of talk, but it was mostly that. Until someone (not a gold freak) can point out a safer currency, the dollar will be the default choice.
    Dec 31 00:27 am |Rating: +3 -2 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Preventing the Depression of 2009
    So essentially the government will create a risk free set of securities based upon risky assets?

    This has got to be one of the WORST ideas I've ever heard. Wouldn't this guarantee a mis-allocation of capital?
    Dec 30 22:44 pm |Rating: +2 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Deepwater Drillers: Not in a Very Deep Hole
    I'm not an expert in this market, but I'm hearing that the price of oil needs to generally average over $70 a barrel for deep water drilling to be profitable long term. That means the price of oil needs to nearly double for the business model to work.

    I'm sure there will be value there someday, but there's nothing here that is convincing me to be a buyer at this point in time.
    Dec 28 16:20 pm |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Why AIG Gets Billions While GM Gets Scorn
    Just because AIG got money, doesn't mean it's a good idea to give it to GM. I haven't heard the "it isn't fair" argument this often since I was seven. Any money from the government needs to be premised on either the company being orderly wound down or turned into a feasible business. Neither of these two options is really on the table for the automakers. Congress will never have the political will to see through the job losses necessary for either option to work.

    There is only one institution that is equipped to rationalize this type of restructuring, and that is a bankruptcy court. The government could easily step in to make bankruptcy an orderly process. They could guarantee a portion of the DIP financing, a portion of the suppliers receivables, and new warranties until the company is out of Chapter 11. We might even get a functioning auto industry out of the process.

    With Congress calling the shots on a blank check bailout, all you'll get is an endless stream of money thrown at car makers so they can continue to produce cars no one wants to buy.
    Dec 12 23:33 pm |Rating: +5 -2 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Gold - Not the Safe Haven People Think it Is
    How is the value of gold more than purely psychological? The primary driver in the recent run up in gold is fear. In fact, I would say the value of gold is far more psychological than that of dollars.

    Next time you're at the grocery store, try paying in gold and see what happens.

    And if you want true protection against massive inflation and/or currency devaluation, buy a house. I'm sure you wouldn't mind the value of your mortgage "reverting to its intrinsic value" over time.


    On Dec 10 01:55 PM E.D. Hart wrote:

    > The US dollars value is purely psychological, and only accepted as
    > valuable because it is backstopped by the "full faith and credit
    > of the US Government." In short, the ability of our government to
    > tax and borrow.
    >
    > Every paper currency ever created has reverted to its intrinsic value
    > given enough time.
    >
    >
    > Gold has had value in every society ever discovered, from tribes
    > in the Amazon, the Egytians, the Macedonians, Greeks, Romans, and
    > Byzantines. Gold has 10,000 years of history as a store of value.
    >
    >
    > To say golds value is purely irrational and psychological begs the
    > question: compared to what?
    Dec 10 23:56 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Emerging Markets: The New Spenders of the 21st Century
    I seriously doubt these conclusions will come to pass in this economic cycle. The reason most people in BRIC countries now have some disposable income has to do with all of the low wage manufacturing jobs that moved there. As American and European consumers spend less, the impact on jobs will be much larger in these countries than the West.

    Although each of these countries made some moves towards (and a few against) long term economic stability, they still stand to suffer many times worse than the American consumer.
    Dec 07 20:29 pm |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Let GM Fail
    Yep, they sold 9,369,524 vehicles, with a loss of $38,732,000 in 2007. That means they are losing $4,133 for every vehicle they sell. What a great company.

    If they are really such a great company, why can't private investors foot the bill?

    ___
    GM outsold Toyota by about 1.2 million vehicles in the United States last year and holds a U.S. lead over Toyota of about 560,000 so far this year. Globally, GM in 2007 remained the world's largest automaker, selling 9,369,524 vehicles worldwide -- about 3,000 more than Toyota.
    ___
    Nov 18 16:50 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The Autos and Mentality That Ruined Detroit
    Problem #1: American made cars have bad quality, bad branding, and the companies have bad management. There is no reason why these companies should be kept afloat.

    Problem #2: Letting one of the big three shut down would be an economic nightmare for this country and they can't be allowed to fail.

    Problem #3: Both of the above are right.

    So what do we do?
    My proposal:
    -Let GM declare chapter 11. It will be messy, but it has to be done. Private investors will have to put up the restructuring loan. If they can't do this, then part of the bailout can guarantee (but not act as) some of these loans. They can restructure their debt, pension obligations, and entire business model. If it works right, we might actually get an American car company that we can be proud of.
    Nov 17 01:02 am |Rating: +2 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Do the Automakers Deserve a Bail Out?
    List off all of the "American is better" reasons you want. At the end of the day, it doesn't translate into sales, so it's irrelevant. I'm still waiting for someone to name a single competitive advantage that any\ American car company has developed. I can't think of any. How can American made Toyota's and Honda's be profitable, but GM can't come close to breaking even?

    GM's losses have been in the BILLIONS since 2005, and they've still been paying out $500m-$1.1B in dividends yearly. Sounds like brilliant management to me.

    And as for your "patriotism" comment, I'm a two tour veteran of the Iraq war, and contempt for Detroit has nothing to do with loving you country.
    Nov 13 01:25 am |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • China's Greatest Trade Ever
    Trying to divine China's currency policy from a newspaper article is like trying to divine US tax policy from Joe the Plumber. It just doesn't work.
    Oct 30 11:17 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Countdown of Manipulated Gold Price Running Out
    I can never tell if who the goldbugs are trying to convince that gold is worth millions per ounce.

    They reason that futures traders can manipulate the price of oil both up and down, while somehow thinking gold is immune to this phenomenon. Guess what? Momentum traders will take the price to below ~50% of gold's high, just like they did to oil.
    Oct 17 02:18 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

bcncv's Comments Stream Stats

  • 28 Comments, 24 , 10
  • Total Comment Stream rating - = 14