bsharvy

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Smart Funds Appear to Be Surprisingly Defensive

Seems kinda silly to me. The obvious "market neutral" benchmark is a CD, which returned 2-3% last year, handily beating anything discussed in this article.
Jan 09 04:06 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Understanding Levered ETFs and Geometric Returns

I don't see an explanation of why the expected geometric return of an inverse ETF isn't just -1 times the return of the equally levered long ETF.
Jan 05 06:34 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Where Will Oil End 2009?

1) Oil isn't a safe haven, it is priced in dollars, so when the dollar falls, oil gets more expensive.
2) OPEC doesn't doesn't have the power to allow or disallow any oil price.
Jan 04 08:30 am |Rating: +3 -3 |Link to Comment |View article
The Pitfalls of Using Inverse ETFs

The problem with the UltraShorts is not explained by volatility alone, nor is it explained by daily rebalancing. Many of the UltraShorts underperform a short position in the corresponding UltraLong. Since UltraLongs and UltraShorts have the same volatility, volatility isn't an explanation. Ditto for daily rebalancing. The explanation doesn't involve any fancy math, but merely common sense: The UltraShorts don't work as advertised.
Jan 01 19:20 pm |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Convertible Bonds Are an Interesting Speculation

JQC isn't primarily a convertible fund. NCV is about 50% high-yield bond, 50% convertibles, and is over-leveraged at the moment. ECF is a pure, unleveraged convertible bond CEF. All of the above do trade at a discount to NAV.
Jan 01 19:08 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Commodities Story of the Year: Floating Oil Storage

What's the evidence for this: "Back in early 2008, oil shot to $146/barrel because there was zero excess supply in the system".?
Dec 30 19:57 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Convertible Bonds: Cashing In on Desperation

Are there any ETFs?
Dec 30 08:08 am |Rating: 0 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
More ProShares Ultrashorts Tomfoolery

Yo, defenders of the Ultrashorts, defend this:

Short MSCI Emerging Markets (EUM) 38.20
UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets (EEV) 3.82

UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China (FXP): -25%
FTSE/Xinhua China: -55%

UltraShort Oil & Gas (DUG): -23.18%
Ultra Oil & Gas (DIG): -64.21%

These are based on YTD (thru NOV 30) results, as stated on the ProShares Web page.
Dec 29 23:40 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
More ProShares Ultrashorts Tomfoolery

The stuff about daily re-balancing is irrelevant. That doesn't explain why the Ultrashorts consistently underperform the Ultralongs. Both rebalance daily. Ditto for volatility. The problem is only with the UltraShorts, as far as I can tell. There is very clear evidence that some of the Ultrashorts don't work as advertised. There is a fair amount of discussion about this at forums.marketocracy.co...
Dec 29 23:35 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
The Correlation Between Crude Oil and the U.S. Dollar

Doubt this: "The slide from record crude prices of $140 triggered the US dollar rebound."

More reasonable: The strengthening of the dollar contributed some unknown amount to the slide in oil prices.
Dec 27 01:59 am |Rating: +2 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Ultra Short Treasury ETF: Have Patience, Money Will Eventually Flow Again

Why TBT rather than PST? Isn't the "bubble" (I don't think you really get a bubble in a matter of months) in the short-term T-bills?
Dec 24 20:50 pm |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Cramer Is Right about Ultrashort ETFs

There is no special treatment or dodging of margin of margin requirements. Does it dodge the margin requirement everytime you invest in a company with leverage? Or when you buy a leveraged closed-end fund? The leverage magnifies volatility, that's all. Are you dodging the margin requirements if you buy a stock with a beta of 2? The purpose of margin requirements isn't to prevent investors from benefiting from leverage. It's to prevent investors from losing more than they have. You can't lose more than you have with a leveraged ETF, so there is no dodging.
Dec 24 20:44 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
5 ETFs for Bargain Hunters

There isn't a single reason given here for any of these recommendations, other than "it's sucked so far, it just can't keep sucking." A ten-year old can pick stocks using that methodology.
Dec 08 21:06 pm |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Where Is Penn West Energy Trust Going?

Penn West has some collars and other hedges on oil price which 1) were extremely beneficial in the last quarter, and 2) are not well documented. To really understand the risks of this company you have to understand its hedges. Anytime you hedge something that falls from $150 to $50 in a few months, you're in a potentially great situation. This article spends too much time focussed on irrelevancies: Reuters ratings and price targets are almost meaningless, as is moving into new headquarters.
Dec 07 19:03 pm |Rating: +2 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Long Term Investors Should Avoid Leveraged ETFs

It's a good article. It made me think. The best description of it is an illustration of the volatility-risk connection.
Dec 06 20:31 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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by SA Editor Rachael Granby

Stocks discussed in the lightning round session of Jim Cramers Mad Money TV program,
Wednesday, October 15.

Bullish Calls:

Continental Resources (CLR) -- "This is a remarkable decline. All of the high quality ones are down so much, I can't go against it. This is where you pull the trigger.
3M (MMM) -- The moment this stock starts yielding 5%, I'm a buyer. Until then, keep your powder dry.

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Computer Sciences (CSC) -- This is a company that was going to be bought, but they passed up the chance. Now I don't want to buy it."
Annaly Mortgage (NLY) -- I think this is a business model that needs to borrow money. Definitively do not buy."
Northrop Grumman (NOC) -- You can't own the defense stocks right now. If I had to own one, I'd look at Lockheed Martin (LMT) with its good dividend.
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