Donald Johnson

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    • Apple's Steve Jobs Isn't Sick - Argus
      I don't know about Steve. Until he makes an appearance where we can see how he's doing, I'm betting on the worst, which is one reason why I sold the stock a couple of weeks ago. The other reason is that despite the busy Apple store I saw a couple of times before Christmas, I think consumer spending will be weak enough to hurt AAPL, regardless of any new products.
      Jan 02 17:10 pm |Rating: +3 -2 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Is There a Legitimate Case for the Healthcare Providers ETF?
      Although I wrote months ago that health executives weren't very concerned about the elections, I think they have to be now.

      Many health stocks are depressed and they will be until the uncertainty about Obama's proposed nationalizing of the health insurance markets is resolved. We don't know exactly what he'll try to get through Congress. And we don't know whether the GOP will be able to kill or modify Obama's plans. Clinton had basically the same majorities in the House and Senate that Obama will have, and he couldn't get Hillary care enacted.

      The public mood, of course, is much different today. Insurers shoot themselves in the foot every day, and consumers and politicians are sick of them. They are much harder to defend today than they were in '93 and '94. So I think enough GOP senators will support Obama to get something done.

      But the markets aren't sure, yet. Uncertainty is a market killer.

      In addition, with higher co-pays and deductibles, the health insurance and health care markets are acting much more like normal markets despite all of the governmental distortions.

      This is hurting demand for insurance, medical devices and medical services. This is shown in the depressed prices of hospital company stocks.

      So, if you're going to play the health ETFs, play the technicals as much as the fundamentals, which are very cloudy at this point, imo.
      Dec 30 21:39 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • My Year End Buys and Sells
      I think buy and hold is a bad strategy, even for a year. A better strategy, I think, is to buy the stocks on the list and hold them until they go down 5% to 7% from your buy point or until you have a better idea and the stock looks like it's topping, as they all do.
      Dec 30 21:15 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Stocks to Benefit from a 'New Energy Economy'
      McDermott's symbol is MDR.
      Dec 27 17:16 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • iPhone Rumors Confirmed: Coming to a Wal-Mart Near You
      Having just bought two iPhones and another MacBook Pro, I think analysts are missing a key point, the same point they often miss when they complain Mac prices are higher than the prices of other computers.

      That is, the apps available for free and nominal prices on iPhones and the software that comes with Macs makes the Apple products cheaper than any of their competitors. And they work. They're slick and fun to use. A friend just bought a competing product and is having problems with it. I just traded up from a brand new Treo from Sprint, which I got for free when an older one failed. (Sprint mishandled a refund problem. So I owe them nothing.) I've used Treos since they were first introduced.

      So Apple need not give price concessions.

      As for WMT vs Best Buy, maybe WMT did little time and productivity study at the Apple store and an AT&T outlet. What they probably found is that it takes a knowledgeable person to activate an iPhone buyer who's new to both the phone and AT&T. It took an Apple store guy an hour to activate us and sell some accessories.

      Walmart's hours are long. How many employes will each of its stores need to train to sell and activate the iPhone. What will it pay these employes? How long will they be on duty? (Will you buy iPones at Walmart between 2 and 6 on Saturdays?) How will WMT keep tits iPhoners from going to the competition?

      To me, it appears WMT's competitive advantage will be that it will be more convenient to go to one of its stores than to competitors' stores. It will serve a different demographic than its competitors. And it intends to make money selling iPhones.

      Question: Will WMT's iPhone customers get better deals from AT&T?
      Dec 27 16:25 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Why You Need to Be Careful With Leveraged ETFs
      Don't the ultra sort ETFs use options? Would the sharp jump in volatility in the fall be one explanation for the tracking problem. If the ETF owned puts, a jump in volatility would nearly negate a drop in the underlying. Over the last week or so, VIX dropped to 43ish. Impact on SH?
      Dec 24 22:58 pm |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Newspapers: Any Options Beyond Cutting, Selling or Closing?
      On Dec. 6, I blogged:

      ewspapers are tanking due to their loss of most of their classified advertising to eBay, craigslist.com and various jobs and auto sites on the Internet.

      Classifieds historically have attracted almost as many readers as business news stories and the comics. Almost 39 years ago, a couple of bright young guys in Chicago started the Weekly Reader, which allowed anyone to publish classifieds FREE. They made a fortune, publishing one great feature a week along with a few fillers and hundreds of ads.

      Even today, alternative weeklies are filled with ads and one or two interesting stories. I’m not sure they’re thriving. Indeed I think some are hurting.

      But they present a business model that daily newspapers might adapt.

      Print free classifieds for individuals. Charge affordable prices for commercial and job ads. Craigslist charges $15.

      Since the Internet has a tough time beating local display ads published in newspapers, wrap the classifieds around the display ads.

      Cut editorial costs to the bone while increasing readership of the paper and its related web site.

      Publish one or two major investigative and trend pieces a day. You might also publish comics and puzzles that aren’t easily accessible on the net. Publish briefs on national, local, sports and business news with refers to the paper’s web site. Make sure all stories include tons of links to source materials and related stories. Keep it simple.

      Invite all governmental agencies to submit their news releases and related propaganda. Group by town, county and school district. Publish the lede graphs in the paper. Publish the whole thing on the paper’s website. Open every item to comment by readers. They would provide the content that people would want to read.

      Support this venture by selling affordable advertising to local merchants. Some would buy links to their web sites. Others would buy banner ads and text ads and others would buy display ads in the paper.

      Automate ad sales, letting customers buy the ads on the web site. Advertisers would be responsible for writing, editing and submitting ads ready for publication on the web and/or in the paper. Payment would be by credit card, improving cash flow and collections as well as profitability.

      More here:

      www.businessword.com/i.../

      Community papers have more captive markets, but even they are worried about the survivability of their bread and butter advertisers, including local Realtors®, auto dealers, accountants and retailers. Many of their ad contracts expire at the month, and then they will know how they'll do next year.
      Dec 23 23:20 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Roger Wiegand: Oil Prices Create Industry Havoc
      Good stuff. It's up to speculators to trade the charts with the fundamentals in mind. This is the best discussion about the commodities that I've seen in awhile.
      Dec 23 22:55 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Just Because Madoff Used It Doesn't Mean the Collar Strategy Is Tainted
      Lesson to be learned: How did Madoff missuse the collar strategy and lose money using it?

      Anybody care to speculate, if I may use that word?
      Dec 14 15:51 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Blogs, Profanity and Editorial Integrity
      After I created a board for moms of twins, i fund that some loved foul language. And I found that that language cost me readers. I banned all foul language in the interest of the site.

      Nobody went away. They cleaned up their acts and continued to have fun that all could enjoy. If you lose a contributor or two, where will they go. And do you care.

      Take care of number one, SA.
      Dec 14 15:41 pm |Rating: +2 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Analyzing Bill Miller's Fall
      Bill Miller didn't adapt to market and economic conditions. He made his fortune during the biggest bull market in history, 1982 to 2006. The bear market has confounded him. Everyone should read the WSJ story twice.
      Dec 11 19:59 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Watching the New York Times Struggle
      The only paper that has a good set of blogs and boards is wsj.com, and I'd give it a 5 on a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being high.

      And for years I've been arguing the Times turns off half of its potential readers and therefore half of its potential ad revenue with it's unprofessional, biased reporting and editing and its shrilly left editorials and op-ed columnists.

      As long as Pinch, a Vietnam era radical and kid, runs the Times, it will continue to slide. Since he's still relatively young, the slide has a long way to go.
      Nov 24 15:19 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • GM: Bankruptcy Is No Longer an Option
      Simple Accountant is on to something. Hold a fire sale of the three companies' assets. Some private equity firm could come in and buy a nice headquarters, accounting, marketing and information technology system with the two or three plants it would need to produce a couple of the top brands. Then it could cherry pick the dealers it wants to sell its products and hire production workers, etc. it needs. It could write a new union contract or freeze out the UAW, which has destroyed Detroit.

      Say it did all of this for $5 billion and put $30 billion into the biz. It would make big bucks, having bought assets for pennies on the dollary, owing no retiree benefits and rallied greatful workers to its venture. Hell, the workers could buy into the biz.

      Buffett, Gates, Jobs and Hank Paulson can finance the thing with a little help from Harvard and Yale endowments. And maybe the Ford Foundation.
      Nov 23 23:06 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Home Price Plunge Produces Sales Spikes In Many Cities
      Markets work! Keep the govt. out and the over supply will take care of itself as long as buyers can get mortgages. Great for people looking for affordable housing. Horrible for a lot of sellers, including the banks.

      Good roundup even tho too many of the stories quoted Realtors who always hype and inflate their reports on prices and sales activities.
      Nov 23 22:50 pm |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Apple's Greatest Idea Yet
      AAPL is $83.64. PE is 15.57 and forward pe, for what it's worth, is 12.3, which means the very unreliable PEG is a very cheap 0.6. Relative strength on daily charts shows stock is oversold and has been since early Oct. Trading below 50- and 200-dma. Negative sar and macd. Bollinger band width still rising, which is bearish. Point and figure price price objective is $60

      Annual AT&T cost is, what, $1,200? How many out-of-work Apple enthusiasts will spend $1,200 on iPhone, another $1,200 on cable, Dish, etc. and $12,000 to $30,000 on housing, plus transportation, etc. Priorities?

      In this economy, the fundamentals are impossible to forecast. Thus, uncertainty could keep the stock in a trading range for some time, and price momentum is bearish.

      Morningstar estimates AAPL's fair value is $169, but M* has been very slow in lowering its fair value estimates. Stock is selling for only 2.3 times sales per share and for a relatively low 7.78 times cash flow? Why is the market pricing the stock this way?

      Again, uncertainty. I own some AAPL, but I won't buy more until the daily, weekly and point and figure charts are bullish.
      Nov 21 10:19 am |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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