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As Its Politicians Battle, Ukraine's Economy Tunnels South
In which countries behaviour of politicians is different?
Four Commonsense Clues to a Genuine Market Bottom
Although, if a really long and deep depression hits, they (PE guys) might eventually be forced to sell their portfolio companies just to liquidate their funds, creating an uptick in that very M&A activity... But lets not think of that scenario...
A Russian Perspective on the Rise of the U.S. Dollar
Grigori is scared in the short term. As most Russian "analists" he's most likely got the brains of a petty speculator who is "street smart" and lives in the now, and only now. Raised in the country that went through several crises of unstable and weak governments, he is not trusting his new strong, rich and all-powerful (autocratic but deliberate) government. His reaction is justified by crises of the past, although not necessarily by the current.
Besides, what is $25K for a Russian market speculator? If he is rich, it's pocket change, a small safety margin in case the bank closes doors for "back holiday." And if he is not rich, and it is big money for him, why do you listen to a poor schmack?
Finally, don't forget the nuances that might have been lost in translation, even from his Russian English to your American English. The environment in which you function affects your understanding of information. I often speak to my friends in Russia in perfect Russian but as our actions later show we get very different ideas from the same seemingly clear conversations. The same thing happens between parents and teenagers everywhere all the time. So, perhaps Grigori - as smart as he might be - meant something different than you understood.
My two cents.
An End to Efficient Market Theory
America's Ad Hoc Fiscal and Monetary Policy
The New Energy Cold War: The Warsaw-Tehran Connection
Congratulations for your three-part article. As a Russian-Canadian and former Visiting Professor of one of American Schools of Diplomacy, I find your analysis somewhat simplistic, but it is WAY better than most professional analysts, journalists and politicians offered to the American and European public.
Few understood that Russia defended its own citizens in a break-away region from the haphazardly planned by Saakashvili ethnic cleansing, Croatia-style. You may not remember, but in the late nineties ethnic Serbs were ethnically cleansed from two break-away Krayina and Vucovar Serb-majority regions of Croatia by Croatian regular military which was armed and trained by the U.S.
Milosevic, who at that time still ruled Serbia, didn't respond. However, Putin clearly remembered the case, knew that the conflict with belligerent Georgia was coming and had a clear pretext to get involved given that a dozen of Russian peace-keepers were killed by Georgians. The simple indignation that the peaceful city of Tzhinvali was carpet-bombed like it was a military field (and from the horrendous losses they suffered during the WWII the Russians viscerally know what that is like), Russian public firmly stood by his side.
After so much bizarre analysis by the Western news media circuits, as American taxpayer I was grudgingly expecting our government to start wasting our money on Georgian re-building and on further alienating Russia. Well, today it happened, and a billion of my and your dollars will go to build new Georgian roads and military bases, despite the fact that New Orleans has not yet recovered from Katrina…
In the long run, the end of the 15-year South-Ossetia and Abkhazia stalemate and the unexpectedly easy Russian victory will prove to be the event that has fleshed up the realities of an emerging multi-polar world. It is up to our leaders to choose how much we will lose in pretending that Russia is intrinsically “bad” and that it needs to be “taught a lesson” of obeying our will...
I find it difficult to imagine that Russians will lose here. After all, this time they have all the strong cards, and we have mostly the misplaced disgust and pathetic indignation. But those are the usual feeling of losers.
Again, thanks for your article.
Hedge Fund Manager's Notebook: Blood on the Streets - Buy Russia
It will be a VERY slow process, but you'd never know who among oligarchs will be next. If you invest in Russia, try to invest in services, construction, food, perhaps utilities, etc., the sectors that do not depend on WHO owns the natural resources. Besides, they will be the ones on the upswing more than the commodities, anyway.
The good thing - the government there is stable and VERY popular with the electorate (in part for its attempts to sideline the power of the oligarchs). Condi Rice may say Russian gov-t is not as "democratic" as, say, Georgian (Medvedev/Putin never got less than 65% of the vote, Saakashvili in January - 53%) but a smart investor isn't spooked by China's Communist gov-t, right?
On Country Selection
Big Lots, Wal-Mart and Costco: 3 Musketeers of the Pooring of America
Eastern Europe: The Worst is Yet to Come
Beware of Crumbling BRICs
With Russia in particular: since russian ruble will continue to appreciate against the dollar, it makes sense converting dollar-denominated instruments into ruble-denominated ones and sleep quite happily on the Russian index (even their largest, fully state-insured bank offers 9% on ruble 3-month deposit.) Inflation or not, I'll be up in the end, for higher ruble securities eventually converting into diminishing dollar should make additional sense. With both Putin and his puppet gearing to combat inflation, russian growth may not be above 10% as it should be with this price of oil (which ain't coming down, folks), but even 8% GDP will do wonders for my Russian index.
Tell me if I am wrong. Ple-ease:)
The Russian Bear Awakens: A Global Macro View
As anti-corruption researcher and consultant I agree that corruption in Russia is as omni-present as in Brazil, India and China, but that is the risk you have to mitigate and there are numerous free and effective ways to do so.
Compared to the USA Russia has many strategic advantages and the continuation of the Putin's line combined with the clean balance sheet and high commodity prices will inevitably lead to it to further economic and political prominence.
Although indeed outside of natural resource-based industries it is the service sector, consumer finance and housing that lead the way in Russian economic development, given that they start so low and have an immense internal demand to satisfy, the growth of those sectors is sure to sustain Russia for decades to come. In the end Russia has all the signs of moving towards the path of countries like Canada, where vast natural resources sustain the rest of the sectors and thus ensure decent economic life of its small, comparing to its territorial span, population. But, as Russian and Canadian citizen permanently living in the US, I think it’s a good thing prospects:-).
Besides, Russia's positive national balance sheet and ever-growing foreign currency reserves allow them to make mistakes along the way and not to fall into the ditch the way the US is ready to do.
Finally, these days Russia is much less Communist that America in virtually every way. Actually, while I was a research professor at one American university, I felt as if I was back in the Soviet Union again: so thick was the bureaucratic thinking, so little entrepreneurship was there. Alas, the state legislators think in exactly the same terms as our university bureaucrats and, to my dismay, I found that most states legislators across America are acting in the same mode, wasting your and my money on the things that have little pay-off or will not pay in the short-to-medium term. But in the long term we are all dead, eh? :-( Tell me if I am wrong. anvor@yahoo.com
Russia ETFs on Fire
Yes, it is interesting that little positive is spoken about Russia. And the contrast between treatment of still red China and newly anti-red Russia is remarcable. There were no direct clashes between US and Russian troops since 1917 when US marines were sent onto Russian soil. but thousands of GIs died in Korea as fighting Chinese. However, unlike China, Russia was made to look like a mortal enemy for much longer, thanks largely to American brainiacs in power.
So, Russia was first treated as a hideous foe and then as a hideous loser for so long that too many started to see it as such.
But let's check the reality: the country is virtually free of debt (compare to the US's 9 trillion and mounting), state institutions are stable and often shockingly popular (compare Putin's approval rating of 70+ percent with George W's), it is flush with resources, opportunities and entreprenurial minds and therefore it grows by 7-9 percent a year with outlook being even higher.
Russians still prefer to speak in Russian, and act like Russians, quelle dommage, but otherwise, just like China, it is a place to make millions.
Ehr, scratch millions, put billions instead.
Do We Really Need Hedge Fund Transparency?