sbenard

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  • The Obama Plan: We Can't Entitle Our Way Out of Paying Taxes
    I always get such a kick out of analysis ad nauseum. What they really are trying to do is to figure out how the government can vampirically suck as much of the life out of us without killing us. That's what all this back and forth about how high the can tax us without destroying the goose that lays the golden eggs. Until we can change the mentality of these policy wonks to one of figuring out how to provide the best environment for long-term prosperity, we'll be dieing a slow economic death. True, lasting prosperity can only come from savings, productivity, low taxes, and limited government. Everything else is just a dog and pony show intended to obfuscate and mislead.
    Aug 25 11:11 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Natural Gas Fund Is Flaming Out
    I have been waiting a long time to buy this fund. It looked like it had bottomed and would start to climb after yesterday. However, the price of Nat Gas cratered today. Last year nat gas bottomed at about $7.50, just about 50 cents lower than where we are now. Nat gas tends to rise in the fall/winter months. Liquidity for this fund is excellent. What's not to love? The technical charts for the futures and the ETF are virtually identical, too!
    Aug 22 21:02 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • On the Dollar and Commodities: Currencies Move Because We Let Them
    One more thought. In a day when there are stock index ETFs that short the market, why would ANYONE just sit and wait through an economic downturn! We can be either long or short the market at all times, benefiting from both bull and bear markets! Learn to read the charts!
    Aug 18 17:54 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • On the Dollar and Commodities: Currencies Move Because We Let Them
    Good article, Chris! I have been making the case for some time on my own blog that the "buy and hold" strategy of sitting tight through deep dips in stocks is likely to create steep losses that will take many years to dig out of. Your last chart makes that point very powerfully!
    Aug 18 17:50 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The Wheat Debate
    There are also seasonal aspects to grain prices. Typically, the annual low prices for grains occur sometime between Aug 15 and Sept 30. After that, prices tend to rise over the following six months. Looking at grains charts for the past two years, grains have hit their lows for the year at the peak of the harvest season both years, as it become clear that the crop has been bountiful. However, this year, the cool, wet spring caused the crop to sprout late, and the plants are less mature. This makes them more vulnerable to late-season frosts and early winter. Today, the price of wheat was UP sharply. Soybeans and corn were very close to their limit UP prices. If you are going to trade the whipsaws and sharp up and down days of late summer, then all I can say is, "Good luck!" You'll need it!
    Aug 18 17:19 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Responding to Bear Market Conditions
    This is a long-winded way of saying to "buy and hold" and ignore the market dips. Last I checked the NASDAQ is still less than half of its former high. NASDAQ investors who bought near the peak are still waiting to be made whole more than 10 years later. They may wait for decades longer before the NASDAQ recovers.

    In other words:

    MISERY LOVES COMPANY!

    I'm convinced a lot of these people who suggest to buy and hold forever are just hoping that other people will buy and bail out their bad decisions to keep bad investments.
    Aug 07 09:42 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • US Dollar Index Looking Up?
    Amazing, but true. The Dollar has bounced. However, it's not so much a phenomenon of Dollar strength, as it is a phenomenon that the rest of the world, including the Eurozone, is collapsing. The perception is that the U.S. is close to a possible bottom, while the rest of the world is just starting downhill.
    However, the U.S. government has so much debt, and it is increasing exponentially every day, that it seems unsustainable. When does the house of cards collapse?
    CNBC tabulated the entire amount for the bail-outs and rescues so far. The total was $1.43 trillion so far since Aug 07. And that doesn't even include the U.S. budget deficit for this fiscal year, which is nearly 1/2 trillion Dollars. And THAT still doesn't even include the supplemental spending for the Iraq War. If all of these are tabulated together, we're talking well over $2 trillion for just ONE year!
    Aug 07 09:33 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Fitch Increasingly Downgrades Non-Subprime [Housing Tracker]
    I just learned yesterday on CNBC that American Express is cutting back credit for its customers. Then, lo and behold, I get a letter from Am Ex saying they canceled my card despite a perfect credit rating and flawless payment history because I didn't renew my Costco membership. At least I'm not the only one!
    Aug 07 09:26 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • VIX Back Below 20
    Bollinger Bands are my VIX.
    Aug 07 09:23 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Were the Tax Rebates a Bust?
    This morning, the nation's two largest retailers, Target and WalMart, released their July comps. Now that the rebate checks are gone, this is the assessment from the retail perspective.
    One word:

    DISMAL

    The rebate was a bust. We simply became more indebted to buy more foreign goods. How is THAT beneficial over any time period but the short-term? And now, we're learning that it wasn't even beneficial over the SHORT-term!

    Fire Congress! Every last stinking one of them!
    Aug 07 09:22 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The Cost of Higher Commodities
    There is also a cost to lower commodity prices. Demand destruction only occurs because of economic decay. Lower prices mean poor economic performance.
    Aug 07 09:17 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Subprime News: Fannie, Freddie, Regional Banks [Housing Tracker]
    One of CNBC's guests from the banking industry said this morning that up to 10% of American's banks may have to be nationalized by the FDIC over the next six months, but they only expect about half that amount. Still, he said, this would amount to TWICE as many bank failures as during the last credit crisis. Wow!
    Aug 07 09:06 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Freddie Chief: House Price Declines Only Halfway Done [Housing Tracker]
    I saw Syron on CNBC say that we are only half way through, and I was stunned. This morning, another banker said that up to 10% of banks could fail in this credit crisis by early 2009 -- about $1 trillion that the FDIC would have to take over. Unbelievable!
    Aug 07 09:02 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Unemployment Spikes
    Every month, John Mauldin writes a follow-up to the jobs report and sends it out in his weekly newsletter. He'll send a new one out tonight. He has well over 1,000,000 subscribers and was ranked last year as the world's second best investment adviser -- next to Warren Buffet.

    Each month, he digs behind the numbers and gets to the meat behind the fluff of the headline. He reads the BLS report, looking for information that explains what is going on behind the one big headline number. For reasons you have briefly mentioned, Felix, and others, he has warned for the past 3 months that the job losses are far more severe than the headline indicates. True job losses are more in the range of 400,000-600,000 per month.

    Mauldin is NOT a market bear. Far from it. He expects a rebound after a muddle-through economy medium-term. Thus, his assessment is not one of a doom-and-gloomer. He's just trying to get beyond the 5-second headline to what is really going on, so that people can make better investment decisions.

    For the record: I have no affiliation with John Mauldin.
    Aug 01 12:00 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Crude Reality: Big Oil's Purposely Restricting Supply
    This author's bio on his website says he's a photographer from the northwest. Since when does THAT give him any credentials regarding crude oil or the financial markets?
    Aug 01 11:26 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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