sbenard

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Have Index Funds Contributed to Commodity Price Moves?

I am always intrigued at the ignorance other people who try to blame speculators for high commodity prices. I read the Mauldin piece and agree with him when he says that "coincidence is not causality".
Even the (supposed) long-only index funds MUST sell their positions in order to liquidate at the expiration of the contract. Thus, it is literally impossible for them to be "long-only". If the influence of these funds was driving commodity markets, then this phenomenon alone would cause prices to plummet close to expiration periods.
The true causes of high prices are those you've mentioned in your article. Between Washington's spendthrift ways (monetizing the debt causes devaluation of the Dollar), ethanol mandates, and global demand, speculators who shorted these markets would be foolish and fighting against a perform storm pushing prices higher. Who would be so foolish?
Jun 03 12:59 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
The 'Commodity Speculators': What's Everyone Worrying About?

Superb write-up on the subject by John Mauldin:

www.frontlinethoughts....

After exploring all sides of the debate, he concludes that "coincidence is not causality". I guess the hedge fund manager, Michael Masters, missed that part.
May 29 18:28 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
4 Sectors to 'Buy in May'

Glutton for punishment, Alan? You'll need a miracle for some of these picks.
May 27 18:09 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Overbought Oil Doesn't Mean Excessive Commodity Speculation

Coincidence does not equal causality!
May 27 17:30 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Blowing the Bubble Bigger

Best write-up on oil I've read in a long while. John Mauldin covers both sides of the bubble debate without bias. He was ranked last year as the world's #2 investor, second only to Warren Buffett.

www.frontlinethoughts....

In this newsletter, he cites the "top hedge fund manager" that Mosh refers to above, but unlike Congress and Mosh, he also includes the other side of the issue. He talks about where the price of oil is headed short-term, and long-term. He also has ideas on WHY Iran is hoarding all that oil on tankers off its coast. Wow, what an eye-opener!
May 25 23:57 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Time To Abandon Stocks?

No shortage of opinions here...

Let me guess, Cathy. Your firm recommends primarily equities.

Let me guess #2. Misery loves company.
May 25 23:42 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
America's Energy Policy: Coming to Terms with Reality

Mr. Math--
Your math ain't so good! Wheat prices are down 41% from their highs -- and still falling! Wheat prices are below BOTH the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. So are sugar and many other commodities.
Meanwhile: Wheat storage in the U.S. is at the lowest point since 1948 -- that's World War II era, when the U.S. population was half of what it is today!
Speculative traders have NOTHING to do with that. These are supply and demand issues that MUST push prices higher!
I wrote about the commodity bubble myth on my blog this week:
globalcapital.blogspot.../
cheap-sugar-most-commo...
May 24 11:52 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
The White Elephant That Could Destroy Your Portfolio, Part I

No chart!
May 23 20:47 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Is the Market Rethinking the Ethanol Sector?

With all the bad press and bad policy surrounding this sector, I wouldn't touch one of these with a ten-foot pole. I might, however, consider one that is related to a non-food ethanol product. I just read about one today that has received a grant from the Dept of Energy. It's name is SunEthanol.
May 19 22:32 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Diving Into the Water ETF

Not a single endorsement of ANY of the stocks in PHO? I read through the entire list just waiting for the first "BUY"! Not ONE!

I wonder if this person could ever find someone to marry!

The PHO ETF has performed quite well, and much better than the broader market. I know, I've owned it!!
May 19 22:26 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Donald Trump on Oil

Trump is the man whose ego knows no bounds. I have to switch channels any time I see his face. I can't wait til his house of card collapses. He has earned it!
May 19 00:05 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Foreclosures Prove Loan Modification Isn't Working

Richjoy, your solution may sound simple, but you'd have to eliminate the Constitution, which, at its foundation, protects private contracts. Without the sacred nature of contracts, NOTHING is safe from the unlimited power of government. Kiss private property good-bye! Be careful what you wish for...
May 18 23:58 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Want to Fix the Fed? Get Rid of It

Ditto! May the Fed be dead!
May 18 23:45 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Capacity Utilization Figures Starting to Resemble a Recession

I agree with John. This is likely a bear market rally. As cap util falls, employment will also. Then, look out below as more credit market worries, especially in consumer debt, start to plunge again. What will the Fed do then, when the Dollar starts a new leg down and inflation starts to heat up even more. The show ain't over... til it's over! This recession show is still far from over!
May 18 23:34 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Isn't the Weak Dollar Supposed to Help Manufacturing?!

Kathy, you have exposed a myth -- that a weaker Dollar strengthens exports. The facts don't support the myth now, nor have historical data supported the myth in the past. The devalued Dollar supports only one thing -- HIGH INFLATION!
May 18 23:30 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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by SA Editor Rachael Granby

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Wednesday, October 15.

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