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  • Was That the End of the Bear Market?
    ABX (ABX-HE-AAA 07-2) plunging to new all-time record lows regardless, hinting more pain to come in markdowns of RMBS:

    www.markit.com/informa...

    Nov 14 09:20 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Gold: Protect Yourself from Future Inflation
    That's great but right now you've got deflation and deleveraging across all asset classes, so you might want to hang in cash until that's over.
    Nov 11 21:13 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The End of the Economy As We Know It?
    You didn't even mention the whole naked short and failure-to-deliver issue, but this is of course along the same lines...
    Nov 11 09:58 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Going Long Printing Presses and Taxes
    You didn't explain what you mean by that, what you are in fact intending to go long.
    Nov 11 09:03 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • What's Happened to the Equity Risk Premium?
    Perhaps. But that seems to me like saying "heck, before I paid $14 for something that was worth $7, so it must now be a terrific bargain to pay $10"... no?
    Nov 07 13:50 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • What a Recession Looks Like
    "Govt has to guarantee stock market purchases by investors" and instate equity market price/volatility controls...


    Are you joking?

    You can't repeal the business cycle, especially a very large business cycle... The stock market made it through the 1930's and it will make it through this. But it won't be fast or easy.
    Nov 07 13:46 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • What Does a Bear Market Rally Look Like?
    Note also the remarkable inverse correlation on volume and price since last October's top in the SPX, I marked the short-term trend lines below...

    When the market tanks/bottoms, volume spikes, but then progressively dwindles on rallies, until within days of a volume trough, the rally runs out of gas and the bear market resumes its downwards grind.

    i38.tinypic.com/2rh39z...
    Nov 05 12:56 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The Transition from Bear to Bull Market
    Nice piece, like the charts - thanks. I do believe we'll see a similar pattern to past bear markets where we'll get an "economic [re]test" of the lows 2-3 months from now.
    Nov 04 14:39 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Bears Have Rallies Too
    StagflationSurvivor - that is a truly terrific chart series - thanks for creating and posting.
    Oct 30 11:22 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Recession Will Be Short and Shallow
    Nice call Mr. Nichols.
    Oct 29 10:06 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Japanese Yen Has Huge One-Day Decline; Helps Market Rally
    "This was the largest one-day decline since Jan. 1974, a month that touched off a huge rally in the stock market."


    True but a bit misleading: Yes, there was a ~10% bear-market rally in January 1974 but that was it, as the market was about 40% lower nine months later.
    Oct 29 09:19 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Too Early to Call a Bottom - Buying Anyway
    Why do people buy equities when they seem to clearly believe the bottom is still a considerable distance away? Is it just anxiousness or impatience?

    Oct 23 23:49 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Five Ways the Global Economy Is Rebounding
    "the market is gradually moving from panic to resignation that we're entering a time more based in the reality of our actual economic productivity than a giddy fantasy greedfest, where it feels like money is growing on trees"


    Correct. It's been growing on trees for a quarter-century now, basically since Ronald Reagan.

    So where does the money come from now? Who refoliates the trees and how?

    Did you know that Michael Milken at the height of his career (during those Reagan years) was leveraged only 4-to-1?
    Oct 23 11:34 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Not Your Grandfather's Great Depression
    Agree. I don't care if which party you're from, but it seems a bit disingenuous to already be blaming a future president, doesn't it?

    Blame for where we are should lie where it belongs, for actions already taken (or not taken)... Odd how I didn't see our current president's name in there anywhere.
    Oct 20 01:23 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Today's Situation: Not a Great Depression
    Not saying we are or aren't headed for another depression, but I agree 100% with jlounsbury59's comment - this is the kind of stuff that Dennis Kneale loves to spout.

    (You know, the pollyanna on CNBC that's been wrong every step of the way because he's looking in the rearview and not comparing apples and oranges.)

    What's more, regarding looking at figures back then vs. now, you do know they dramatically changed how they've measured all those factors since then, don't you??


    Oct 13 04:06 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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