Mmarrkk

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  • Chesapeake Energy Unable to Rally Even After Positive News
    Maynard: pls tell me more about "Sub$5 and $4 start to inhibit the effectiveness of hedges." I don't understand exactly what you are talking about. I know hedges but don't quite get your point.


    Dec 30 15:15 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Chesapeake: When Gas Prices Will Recover
    Forgot to add this: At $2 nat gas, virtually all of the gas produced in the Rockies would be selling for pennies as the basis differentials are huge due to lack of capacity in pipelines. So what would happen if 1/2 the gas in the Rockies were just shut in?? Think that might have an impact on prices??
    Dec 12 10:56 am |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Chesapeake: When Gas Prices Will Recover
    Maynard and weiwentg: explain how CHK gets to the point of liquidation or dilution again? As I see it, if prices continue on down (which I've stated is very hard to justify over an extended period of time due to the fundamentals), CHK has the option to continue to cut back on their drilling/acquisition budget. It truly is that simple; just live within your means and cashflow. Now, if they continue to cut their drilling costs, they will lose some of their undeveloped leases but that can really be managed by savvy landmen using 640-acre units and a single well in each. A huge portion of their acreage is held-by-production (HBP) which means they don't have to drill the wells anytime soon. the other result of cutting capital is that their production increases will be slowed down. So instead of growing production 20-25% per year, they may have to live with 5% per year. Again, not a liquidation scenario.

    They have the choice to either spend the money or not. If they want to spend the money in low price environments, they will have to issue stock which will be dilutive. But they DON'T HAVE TO DO THAT. They just stop drilling! Their average cost to maintain current production is below $1/mcf without drilling.

    As for the $2 nat gas scenario, at that price level everyone in NA will stop drilling nat gas wells. You will see a rapid decline in supply, the likes of which we haven't seen in many years. Supply will drop well below a depression-like market and prices will rise. Alternatively, LNG will be attracted into the market at higher prices than $2 as the cost to operate the LNG liquifaction, transport and re-gas system is higher than that. For these reasons, prices at $2 won't last long. I believe prices below $4 won't last long. So all Aubrey has to do is be patient and continue to cut back on his drilling budget, accept very low growth (GROWTH none the less) and wait.

    As for me, I'd love a $2 nat gas environ. I'd be out scooping up assets left and right at firesale prices!
    Dec 12 10:54 am |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Looks Like It's Time to Buy Oil
    Panda: no screen or anything, just a lot of research. I start with companies I know a lot about, like EOG and CHK. I have a good feeling for what will move their price over a period of time and what I think is a totally outrageous entry price (like EOG at $40). Then you have to find a stock with some volatility so that the option premiums make this worth the trade. Just takes time.

    I got this from a few traders that I've read information on. Also, Phil Davis (posts on SA often) has some variations on this approach. I don't always agree with Phil's editorials, but his option trades are great!
    Dec 12 10:42 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Natural Gas Transportation Is a Win-Win Technology
    Fitz: my feelings on global warming are not tied to Bush. They are tied to the rebuttals of this theory by 650 scientists from around the world. But you keep on with whatever gets you there. I'll keep sweeping snow off of the beach in Galveston and trying to equate that to global warming! Remember 20-30 years ago it was global cooling and ice ages. When we are old and gray driving nat gas cars, it will probably be back to global cooling again!!

    Keep pushing those letters to "O". Pretty sure he would not take any of mine.

    As for the oil and gas guys in the white house, in reality there are very few if any real oil and gas guys in the administration. Cheney is not an oil man. GW was, but only at a management level, didn't work his way through the field, engineering, geoscience, etc. Why not get someone like Archie Dunham (ex CEO of COP) or the rich old guy from XOM or anyone with a lifetime of experience running oil and gas companies? They might actually know what oil looks like!

    As for whomever made the comment that nat gas from shale is not believable, please do a search on PetroHawk and Haynesville shale. The just announced 3 wells producing over 20 MMCF/day each. Yeah, shale gas is just a pipe dream! Dr. Banks, you do know that almost half of the US's nat gas comes from unconventional resources like shale, coal and tight sands?? but its all a pipe dream, right??
    Dec 11 23:17 pm |Rating: 0 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Natural Gas Transportation Is a Win-Win Technology
    jerrydd: what are the safety statistics on your subcars, etc.? The current lfeet of large vehicles isn't going to disappear so at least for some time, we will need to be concerned about the outcomes of a fiberglass sub car with a Suburban! I'd drive a golf cart to the grocery store if a) it was allowed on the street or if the sidewalk was big enough, and b) I felt comfortable being rammed in the side by a car/truck/SUV. At this point, neither of these is a good deal!!

    Dec 11 12:06 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Looks Like It's Time to Buy Oil
    Like selling EOG Apr 09 $40 Puts for $2.50? Stock at $75 currently. If the world fell apart, you would be forced to buy EOG at $40, minus the proceeds of the put for an effective price of $37.50, a drop of 50% from its current price and a drop of 74% from its 52-week high of $145. If the world doesn't fall apart and EOG stays above $40, you make $250 per contract.

    Did similar with CHK Apr 09 $7.50 Puts for $1.25. If forced, you'd have a buy-in price of $6.25 for CHK.
    Dec 11 10:32 am |Rating: +2 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Oil Won't Stay Down for Long
    Can you give me a symbol for the CHK preferred's?
    Dec 11 10:22 am |Rating: 0 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Natural Gas Transportation Is a Win-Win Technology
    And again, my barbs about clilmate change aside, AN EXCELLENT ARTICLE! I'm waiting for the NG pick up truck to haul materials and tools around between oil and gas properties!!!
    Dec 11 10:19 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Natural Gas Transportation Is a Win-Win Technology
    Fitz: Great article! I wish your man "O" would read it, or at least assign one of his advisors to read it! However, you say that he has "...a plethora of PhD's..." advising him. There might be the problem!!! PhD's don't equate to good common sense! Smart guys no doubt but just not always the most practical. And your plan is practical. The new Energy Secretary nominee is a really smart fellow but I really don't see him as a help to the transition period in our energy journey. He's an alt energy guy and a big global warming guy. Nat Gas is still evil to his ilk; not as evil as oil or coal, but still evil! I'd have rather see T. Boone take that job...but we'll see pigs fly before we see a real oil & gas man in this administration or any future one! T. Boone gets dismissed because he's making money on the wind portion of his plan. Funny, no one dismisses Al Gores "award winning" powerpoint presentation movie on global warming even though he's started up a business and is making millions off of cap-and-trade gimmicks!

    Today, I decided to re-think my disdain for all of the global warming folks; the Al Gores and all of his scientists. Maybe they're right and I'm wrong (and the over 650 recognized scientists who also disagree with the theory of global warming). But then, I'm sitting on Galveston beach and its SNOWING!!! Uhhhh, yeah, global warming! I'll just wait around another 20 years and we'll be back to our 1970's/80's worry about global cooling/ice ages! We do seem to flip from one to the other! In the end, we are but a pimple on this big old planet's behind. We only wish we had that much power to influence.
    Dec 11 10:17 am |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Steve Chu, Energy Secretary: Greentech World Likely To Approve
    Since an overwhelming portion of our current and near/mid term energy comes from oil, gas and coal, having a global warming kool-aid drinker is a real treat! BTW, since its snowing in Houston and on the beach in Galveston, I guess that global warming thing is working out pretty darned good isn't it??

    Someone who is an academic mind, even a strong one, should not be over a department that needs a balance between theoretical, idealistic and business needs. Get ready for that $4 gasoline again...it will come back and with eggheads running energy, I'll guess our energy policy won't include common sense solutions for the near/mid term.
    Dec 11 10:03 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Americans Forget High Oil Prices Too Quickly
    And Fitz...when you speak of American car makers, do the factories in Kentucky (USA) and Tennessee (USA) not count as American? I personally don't give a rat's arse what brand name is on the car if its built in the U.S.A....even in parts of the U.S.A. that didn't vote for Obama. Why not have toyota, honda, et al come in and take over some of the GM, Ford factories. No matter what the name is, if its built in the USA why not call it an American car?? This also gets rid of the problem of the UAW which I believe is a huge part of the problem.

    Since making and marketing SUV's is a "treasonous" offense, would we say the same thing for tobacco growers and cigarrette makers? How about alcohol distillers? All of these things are bad, very bad. Are how about electric motor manufacturers. Those things burn up electricity which cause us to burn coal which pollutes our environment. Again, supplying a vehicle that Americans have shown they WANT to BUY is not something I can fault FM, Ford for. I'd fault them for building that damn GEO though!! A death trap that was ugly and overpriced!

    If we want to move away from SUV's and trucks, why not instead of restricting CHOICE, how about we incentivize better choices?? Give folks a tax credit for buying a more fuel efficient vehicle. We already pay a tax for driving a SUV (via the fuel taxes) but make it an incentive to buy the fuel efficient vehicle. I would still drive my truck and my wife would still drive her SUV, but other "MORE PATRIOTIC" folks could buy their GEO and their Prius and their golf carts. Restricting choice is probably not a great way to go. Isn't what Obama said about abortion? Why doesn't it apply to SUV's?? Man, I've gone off the deep end now!! Next, I'll want to give people Choice in schools or some other wild eyed idea like that! Karl, pull me back in!
    Dec 10 14:35 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Americans Forget High Oil Prices Too Quickly
    Fitz: bushies not making money...I believe what I said was "Just don't think the Bush folks have made as much money off of the crisis as ex-Clintonista's. their money made elsewhere." See, I said the Bushies made their money elsewhere, just not in the financial crisis. Can I get a little credit for giving both sides the backhand?? :o)
    Dec 10 14:24 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Americans Forget High Oil Prices Too Quickly
    palmer: the reason they don't make the Geo anymore is nobody would buy the piece of crap! But I guess making what the buyer wants to buy is not allowed around here. Better for GM, Ford, etc. to build "what we need", not what we want...and "what we need" is determined by Al Bore, Nancy Pelosi and B.O.? Some here make it sound like all that GM has built over the last 10 years were SUV's and trucks, thus "forcing" us to buy them. Hell, they've also been buying a bunch of fuel efficient cars but guess what?? No one is buying them! If hundreds of thousands of people are buying SUV's, is it the government's job to tell us "no you can't have them??". Please. Next, they'll be telling us we can't go to the doctor when we want, or we can't eat certain foods, or......OH HELL! THEY ARE ALREADY TRYING TO DO THAT AND IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WANT TO EXPAND IT! And lots of folks here are clamoring for more of it and they just elected a president who has vowed to push that agenda!

    Jefferson is turning in his grave!
    Dec 10 09:03 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Americans Forget High Oil Prices Too Quickly
    Old Wizard: All great points. Clinton v Bush...is there really a winner here? Current economic woes have fingerprints from both admin's. Just don't think the Bush folks have made as much money off of the crisis as ex-Clintonista's. their money made elsewhere. Had Rubin not got us off on this wild ride, and continued it after he left office, and had someone in congress other than McCain would have stepped up, maybe the Freddie's wouldn't have bombed out on us. But the Freddies were run by people with money in the pockets of a lot of people (including the upcoming POTUS) so they paid to make it kind of go away, for a while. But when it erupted, it erupted big. Just one of the primer cords for today's mess. Anyone look at the bonuses paid to those folks in 2006 and 2007 for doing a "great job"? I guess they are no different than any other industry!

    Again, enough blame to go around at least 2 administrations. Just wish Obama wouldn't be bringing in so many re-treads. I really thought he'd bring in new blood. I probably wouldn't like them anymore than the re-tread Clintonista's, but at least they would have new blood/ideas. The old ideas got us here; not just Bushies ideas but Clinton's too. Thought folks voted for a fresh start...only time will tell. I really hope it works! For all of us, R or D or I.
    Dec 09 12:06 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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