E.D. Hart

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  • A Great Deal of Potential Reward and Risk in Metals, Energy and Commodities
    And lets not forget dividend paying oil companies that pay a dividend higher than the 30 year treasury. BP comes to mind at about a 7% dividend, and COP with approximately a 4% dividend. Whats the downside in that? I can get paid to wait, and have a built in hedge to inflation that will beat a TIP.
    Dec 16 02:59 am |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • U.S. Treasuries - This Bubble's About to Burst
    The ideology we were sold under the current regime involves lies too numerous to mention.

    Other than the obvious ones from our current leader about WMD, Iraq, FISA, "this nation doesn't toture", "this administration will not be involved in foreign escapades", "this administration will be of the highest inegrity (as opposed to Clinton), etc, etc.

    But the most damaging set of lies fall under the rubric of market fundamentalism--that free markets take care of themselves. That less regulation is always the answer.

    Blatant hostility to the working folks, unions, and those who scrape and save while coddling the corporate leadership is not a good strategy for th GOP.

    Exaggeration? A secret GOP memo released today states basically just that.

    Coddling the CEO's an exaggeration? Hardly. The only weak provision to ensure reasonable CEO pay for companies privy to taxpayer bailout monies was gutted as the Bush administration changed one sentence in the current laws to gut any chance of limiting excessive pay to the already well off.

    Let them eat cake.
    Dec 16 02:25 am |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Are Index Funds the Only Rational Choice?
    Geoff,
    I think you made some excellent points. How does this line of reasoning apply to ETF's?

    For investors that don't want to restrict themselves to 15 stocks, but buy into a weak version of your theory--could the analogy be to apply your thinking to low volatility ETF's with negative or low correlations?

    This year, by simply buying a Treasury ETF, a Gold ETF, a biotech ETF, and a health Care ETF---one could have a low correlation portfolio--and be considerably ahead (in relative terms) this year.

    I know this misses your point about volatility--but can one pick ETFs based on weak correlation, and lower than average volatility, and apply a weak version of your theory?

    Does QPP work with ETFs?
    Thank you for an excellent article that gives much to think about,
    Eric

    Dec 15 19:27 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Gold - Not the Safe Haven People Think it Is
    The US dollars value is purely psychological, and only accepted as valuable because it is backstopped by the "full faith and credit of the US Government." In short, the ability of our government to tax and borrow.

    Every paper currency ever created has reverted to its intrinsic value given enough time.


    Gold has had value in every society ever discovered, from tribes in the Amazon, the Egytians, the Macedonians, Greeks, Romans, and Byzantines. Gold has 10,000 years of history as a store of value.

    To say golds value is purely irrational and psychological begs the question: compared to what?
    Dec 10 13:55 pm |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The Manipulation of Gold Prices
    Excellent writing. Keep it up. Please use more cited sources next time. Id like to look at where some of your facts come from please.
    Dec 05 00:44 am |Rating: +2 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Profiting from Risk Aversion
    Geoff,
    AS always, and extremely well written article with good analysis, theoretical explanation, and practical advice. Thank you.
    Nov 24 20:12 pm |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The Dow's Lost Decade
    Compare the charts of xto to aapl over ten years and upl to goog over four years---and look at which stocks of this decade are really.

    If you could only own two stocks for the last decade or the next one, I would choose XTO, and UPL. And they are still cheap.

    My thesis: natural gas stocks look like they have limited downside, and large upside. Google and Apple could trade sideways for years.

    It isnt just the information economy its also the "we need to get off imported oil economy". That basic truth will not be going away and will only intensify.
    Nov 23 23:50 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • It's a Great Time to Be a Value Investor
    Previous bear market lows corresponded to PE ratios of between 6-8. Now we are at 12, give or take. So, we may only have a 50% further decline from here.

    Its not far fetched--look at the Nikkeis decline of 39,000 in 1989 to today's 8800 or so (give or take). Ouch. Twenty years and a 77% decline.

    Where is the markets pe now? Who Knows? Earnings predictions for the future are extremely uncertain. I am certain that in 5 years oil will be higher, and natural gas will be much higher.

    I'm not so much a betting man as a hedging man. Hedge against extreme outcomes. One possible extreme outcome that I am hedging against is DOW 5000, Gold $5000. Its not probable, but it is possible.

    Long: HGT, DVN, APA, SLW, GG.
    Nov 11 23:23 pm |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The Biggest Bubble of Them All
    In the US we resent the poor and admire the rich, and design the redistribution of wealth for the rich. Socialism for the rich is peachy--its the poor that don't deserve our taxes--apparently.

    Cutting taxes was a cheap political ploy to get elected. The tax cuts mostly expire in 2010. Gets bush in the door--but its poor policy, and cynical politics. Taxes HAVE TO be higher in the future. There is no other way--and Bushes spending gurantees this.

    Its not like a credit card limit being raised at all--credit card holders don't have the ability to raise taxes, and credit card companies don't engage in cynical ploys to get elected.

    Regarding the violence of Islam: Which Islam? There are many.

    Compared to what? Christianity? Christians have been murderous hordes for millenia and it doesn't seem to bother us.

    Iraq was the worst mistake a president could have made (except for getting caught with an intern--which is worse) and has brought us 3 trillion dollars closer to bankruptcy. For that 3 trillion he could have bought actual energy security, which would be actual national security--but instead it was sent up in flames.

    Since when is lowering taxes the gold standard of effective economic policy. PEOPLE FORGET INFLATION. With the inflation that the Bush years unleash--we will all be wishing we had higher taxes, and lower inflation.

    Inflation is a dishonest mans taxes.
    Nov 04 22:48 pm |Rating: 0 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Why Oil and Gold Are Headed Much Higher
    The authors comment, citing an analyst that gold would be $2200 inflation adjusted is based on published reported Government inflation data.
    Real inflation over the last 25 years is likely 2-3 times higher, based on shadowstats.com, and global monetary growth.

    Thus, by my back of the envelope calculations, gold has quite a bit of catch up to do, and in real inflation terms, (not bogus government data) the price should be headed to north of $3500 per ounce.

    Moreover, gold is perhaps the single most manipulated commodity by governments worldwide.

    It is always in the interests of the gov. to encourage gold leasing, gold paper contracts short sales, and falsifying government reserve holdings.
    Considerable evidence has been published to show this is exactly what is happening.

    As the world comes to a new era of the unwinding of the great credit bubble of 1983 to 2008--metals and commodities will be primary beneficiaries.

    In the short term, (two years) gold and other commodities may fall another 20%--but the bull market is intact for commodities, and gold.

    Full disclosure: I don't own a concrete bunker, nor so I stockpile bottled water, ammunition, and old Soldiers of Fortune magazines.
    Oct 19 23:33 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • How Does the Financial Crisis Affect the Peak Oil Thesis?
    Predicting the price of oil is less important than determining NAV. How much does the market value the reserves? Many companies are trading for ridiculously cheap prices...XTO, ECA, and CHK come to mind.


    Also, dividends matter: If COSWF cuts its dividend from 1.25 per quarter to .75 per quarter, that still a $3.00 per year payout on a $22.00 security for a 13.6% yield. I can wait a very long time and get paid 13.6% to wait.

    In short, prices are the lesser part of the equation (to a certain point--obviously if prices plunge to 50 dollars a barrel, then companies shut down production, and many of the big oil sands projects coming online need $80 to be marginal. )

    Right now the downside looks very limited, and the upside looks very bright...but you might wait 3-5 years to play out.
    Oct 18 14:51 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Where We Go from Here: Best and Worst Cases
    "We have the tools, all we need is leadership."

    And we lack leadership to an incredible degree...
    Therefore what should we expect?
    Oct 10 16:08 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Jim Rogers Speaks Out - Where Is He Putting His Money?
    But they are going up in a world of inflation--which is what Buffet and others who have been right are saying.

    Sure, short term deflation, but the secular long term inflation trend is still intact.
    Oct 10 13:21 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Nation's Debt: It's Not Being Rescued, It's Being Moved Around
    The belief that, "The President cannot spend money he isn't appropriated by Congress" works in theory, but in practice, he sold the Americans a number of lies, and then lied about the costs, and then lied about the lies, and said everything is going to be fine.

    "Off budget" accounting ring any bells?

    War will cost 50 billion and will be repaid from Iraqi oil funds sound familiar?

    Not putting the war in the budget--thats ok!
    well charge it and not include it in our budget.

    Guess who the cheerleaders were selling us this mendacity?

    Bush and the necon cabal.

    Yes, blame congress, lots of blame to go around, but Bush spent his political capital on bankrupting our country, lying to us the entire way about the need to war, and the need to deregulate, the need to lower taxes.

    War on terror was really the "war on truth".

    Freemarkets are the solution to all the worlds problems (that and a huge military budget) ---and can only thrive unfettered by sissy regulations.

    We loved it while credit flowed.

    Never have so many have been fooled for so long.
    Oct 09 20:01 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Looking for a Silver Lining? Hedge Funds Now Opening to New Investors
    Please provide a reference for hedge fund down an average of only 9.41 percent...thats unbelievable. Does this take into account the ones that imploded and sunk into the abyss? From what time period?
    Oct 09 11:52 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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