ironist15

18 Comments

    • I.O.U.S.A.: Documentary Worth a Peek [view article]
      I agree heartily with Gramps2, with one exception - both he and Jim misunderstand the Laffer curve. Laffer said that income tax receipts will be zero at two tax rates - 0% and 100%. [I hope I don't have to explain why a 100% tax rate will yield no revenue!] In between those rates, there is a convex curve, and there exists a point on this curve where tax receipts will be maximized. The only interesting question is what tax rate will yield the maximum tax receipts. Saying that Reagan "believed" in the Laffer curve is equivalent to saying that he believed in gravity. What Reagan believed was that the top tax rates, which were between 70% and 90% at the time, were counter-productive in the sense that they depressed economic activity and yielded less tax money to the government.

      Finally, Milton Friedman pointed out that tax rates were not the correct measure of the burden of government - the total amount of government spending represents the burden, and it doesn't matter whether the spending is financed by taxes or debt. To keep the ship from sinking, the US has to reduce government spending as a percentage of GDP, period. That means that Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid cannot be taken as givens - we simply cannot afford these blank-check programs anymore.       Aug 25 10:53 AM
    • Delusions of Debt [view article]
      Bbzz24, I suggest you read Friedrich von Hayek, who proved convincingly that socialism cannot work, even in theory. The idea that the problem is that we have "dumb" politicians and that everything would be OK if we only had "smart" politicians is ridiculous. The problem is allowing politicians to continually expand their power over the economy. That is what the author is showing by graphing the value of the dollar since the Fed was created. What government does will always be done badly. Ron Paul is right: starve government, don't feed it. Aug 04 10:23 AM
    • Inflation: Tears in Your Coffee [view article]
      Looks like you reversed the March and June price headings. Good post though. Jul 17 09:29 AM
    • Gas Lines Coming This Fall [view article]
      To comment only on one part of your article, I think that gas lines can only occur as a result of government intervention in the form of price controls; otherwise, market pricing will be orderly. To put it another way, if there is a gas shortage, prices may need to go to $10 per gallon to reduce demand to the point where lines do not occur. Those with the greatest need, and ability to pay, will get the gas they need, and everyone will get the message to conserve. Jul 15 09:45 AM
    • Low Water: Barging Into American Commercial Lines [view article]
      Thanks, Thomas, I always find your posts interesting. The news about Sam Zell's stake was a plus, too. Jul 07 11:30 AM
    • Bad News on Housing: Investors Beware [view article]
      The Senate has trouble passing another bailout bill? Excellent! If we could only pay them to stay home for the next ten years, the country would prosper greatly. Jun 26 09:37 AM
    • Foreclosures Increase Homelessness [Housing Tracker] [view article]
      From homeowner to homeless shelter resident? If you can't make your $2,500/mo mortgage payment, you can't afford $700 a month for an apartment either? I don't believe it. Sounds like "activist" lies from the same people who invented the statistics in the 90's about "millions" of homeless in the US. Jun 26 09:35 AM
    • How Much Will Drilling in ANWR Affect Oil Prices? [view article]
      I always enjoy your thoughtful analysis. In this case, I notice that you fall into the "too small to make a difference" camp, and I have a few comments. First, the North Slope produced a lot more oil than it was predicted to so we can't be too confident that ANWR will not do the same. Second, if ANWR alone isn't impressive enough, what about adding production off all coasts? Third, even if oil prices aren't reduced at all, it doesn't mean that producing our own oil is in vain. Drilling here means that the dollars stay at home, creating jobs here, and not further enriching dictatorships abroad; it also means a strengthening dollar and lower inflation since our trade balance will be improved. Finally, what is the risk of drilling? Oil leaks are much less likely than they were 40 years ago (the Santa Barbara spill). The caribou haven't died off on the North Slope, for example, and even the hurricane that sank New Orleans couldn't produce an oil leak in the Gulf. Let's ignore the hysterics and drill. Jun 19 10:37 AM
    • Energy MLPs and Royalty Trusts Analysts Love [view article]
      Check with your accountants, but my understanding is that LPs and MLPs should not be held in IRAs because they generate unrelated business taxable income (UBTI) which can't be tax-deferred or sheltered. Non-qualified dividends are taxed as ordinary income, but most MLPs (unlike REITs) offer qualified dividends as far as I know - you should check their websites for guidance on that. Jun 17 10:11 AM
    • Economics of Nuclear Energy [view article]
      The author has it just right. Baseload power is what's most important, and nuclear energy has tremendous appeal. As a health physicist, I can tell you that the nuclear waste storage problem is 99% political and 1% technical. By considering wacky scenarios involving illiterate farmers growing all their food in the desert on top of the waste dump a hundred thousand years from now, "activists" have sought to make spent fuel storage look hazardous. In fact, nuclear waste can easily be stored for many thousands of years in perfect safety. Like the author, I notice that the anti-technology "activists" are quite willing to fly all around the world to act out their morality plays, and then return home to their air-conditioned upper east side condos. Listening to the rhetoric of the "environmentalist... would condemn billions to continuing poverty. Jun 03 10:26 AM
    • The White Elephant That Could Destroy Your Portfolio - Part II [view article]
      There's another reason the Feds can't admit they've lied about inflation: that means that Social Security annuitants have been systematically underpaid for the last decade. Big political problem! May 28 09:46 AM
    • Can Gazprom Realistically Meet Its Natural Gas Projections? [view article]
      Thanks again, Randy. I read the IHT article. Now I hope the Russian government plays an honest game w.r.t. Western investors. May 13 03:26 PM
    • Can Gazprom Realistically Meet Its Natural Gas Projections? [view article]
      Very informative article - thanks! I have a tangential concern about Gazprom (which I own), which is that the Russian government subsidizes domestic consumption. This means that predicting company profit potential is difficult. The profits will be made in exports, but there will be populist pressures to forego exports and continue to subsidize doemstic consumption. Do you have any thoughts about that aspect of the business, Randy? May 13 09:52 AM
    • The Humble Arithmetic of Portfolio Management [view article]
      A very intelligent article – thank you, Geoff. My own experience is that I have been able to beat the S&P 500 index handily for years now by investing in individual stocks and, recently, ETFs. I cannot say what my risk-adjusted return has been, but I suspect I have done better on this basis as well. IMHO, what it takes is constant attention to the portfolio and many sources of ideas, advice, and analysis. While I stay fully invested for the most part, I have used short index ETFs to stabilize my portfolio during this US down market, with some success. Otherwise, I have tried to identify longer term sector trends, e.g. energy for the past few years, base metals up until a year ago, agriculture this year, etc., in order to guide my stock selection. For those without the interest or temperament for investing, finding a good, fee-only advisor can certainly be worth the expense. May 09 09:36 AM
    • Green Energy Prospecting: Eye on Ocean Power Technologies [view article]
      Thanks for this informative article on OPTT. One question: the comparative costs on your chart show that natural gas is a cheaper source of power than coal, something I have never seen anywhere else. Are these fully amortized costs, as opposed to operating costs? That, I expect, would account for the very high costs seen for nuclear power, too. Wind costs look rather low considering wind systems low availability ratio. May 01 10:33 AM
Loading...
Symbols:
Authors:
Quick Links:
Contribute an Article Become a Seeking Alpha Contributor

Transcripts

More Transcripts»