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    • Sun May 4th 04:05 AM
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      Commented on:
      Is the Commodity Bull Market Over?
      Commodities typically start to decline fast at/just after the apex of a recession. When the FED begins to actually raise rates - watch out below.

      A lot of oil analysts see permanent demand destruction occur when gas is +$5/gallon. I see gas staying between 3.5-4.5/gallon this summer. Oil seems toppish at $120-140.

      Here's a potential gas killer solution, using an ultra-capacitor:
      www.autobloggreen.com/.../
      View article »
    • Fri May 2nd 23:42 PM
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      What’s Behind the Slide in Gold and Silver?
      Wakeup,
      I totally agree with you about bonds. They are a horrible "investment" when inflation is factored in.
      View article »
    • Fri May 2nd 19:30 PM
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      Thinking In Themes: What Color Are Your Markets?
      We have just completed phase 1 of this recession: financial calamity, stocks fall, FED lowers rates, and commodities rise.

      Phase 2 will go like this: Media cheerleaders say there isn't even a recession going on - citing government #s, stocks rally, numerous threats that the FED will actually start to raise rates in just a few months to combat inflation, commodities fall, retail #s get really bad, stocks fall hard again. FED lowers rates again. "...The end is coming..."

      Phase 3: Housing stops falling, U.S. pulls troops out of Iraq, balanced budget, market goes up.

      Red>purple>green...
      View article »
    • Fri May 2nd 08:02 AM
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      Commented on:
      What’s Behind the Slide in Gold and Silver?
      Gold and silver are so shiny! They aren't completely worthless...
      View article »
    • Sun Apr 27th 22:06 PM
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      Positioning For Further Dollar Weakness
      Will Rahal,

      I partially agree with you.
      I see the dollar having a dead cat bounce, but I suspect the commodities rally is finished. Stock traders lead the market by 6 months, but usually future traders lead by 9 months. I just get the feeling that future prices are headed for a major 3 month collapse in just a few more days.
      View article »
    • Sun Apr 27th 21:52 PM
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      The U.S. Dollar and the Limits of Irresponsibility
      The dollar will truly become bullish when:
      1. U.S. pulls out of Iraq.
      2. FED starts raising interest rates.

      The dollar is in no-mans-land until then.
      View article »
    • Fri Apr 25th 12:03 PM
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      Why the E*Trade Shorts Have It Wrong
      Etrade is on the fringe of BK. A gamble at best. Buy a big bank if you want to own a "financial". WFC or C would be a much safer, FED-insured-play.
      View article »
    • Thu Apr 24th 03:38 AM
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      UPS: "Dramatic Slowing in U.S. Economy"
      Who would have thunk 7-8 years ago that the current president, whose family business is oil, would allow energy sources to become so scarce?
      View article »
    • Wed Apr 23rd 22:26 PM
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      Oil and Natural Gas Due for a Pullback?
      At $4/gallon here on the west coast, I don't even want to leave the house. Demand for gas is dropping, but oil keeps climbing, something's going to give soon. Refinery utilization is only 82% right now...some refiners are losing money and are purposely producing less...

      The fickle guys on CNBC Fast Money said "Do not short oil" on Monday. But today they seemed to agree with a commodities trader that all commodities are starting to show some weakness.
      View article »
    • Wed Apr 23rd 22:10 PM
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      Short Amazon Ahead of Wednesday Earnings - AmTech
      Very, very nice call!
      View article »
    • Mon Apr 21st 22:24 PM
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      Oil Hits New Record - Is $125 Next, or $100?
      $124.99.

      If it goes higher, Americans will want the Chinese to start exporting to us all those old, bicycles they use to use.
      View article »
    • Sat Apr 19th 17:19 PM
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      Many Investors Seem To Think the Worst Is Over
      Brucepile, I agree that the consumer is sapped. Gas at $4-5 gallon isn't going to help.

      Bear market rally: this is a 12-18 month long bear market. What is it, about $1.5-2 trillion decline in property asset valuations since 2006? That correction will take some time to work its way out before the consumer feels safe. Prime borrowers still need to bail out of their negative equity homes into the cheaper, foreclosed ones.

      The stock indexes will hit a brick wall at their 200 day SMA, probably next week.
      View article »
    • Tue Apr 15th 17:42 PM
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      10 Reasons to Be Bullish on Stocks
      Consumer is staying at home because he can't afford gas to get to the stores, and because his house has negative equity - he can't take out a new loan to buy more junk. American home and equity assets are still 15-20% over-valued. We have another big leg down coming this summer.
      View article »
    • Tue Apr 15th 17:34 PM
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      Congrats to Herb Greenberg - Starting Equity Research Firm
      I think Herb is a smart guy. When he sees something that is over-valued, he'll call it out. I've noticed many times in the past when I've found a good short candidate, Herb is already pointing out the problems, or soon after has also quickly noticed the same thing I have.

      I think he has saved a lot of small investors a lot of money by pointing out serious issues in problem-plagued companies.

      I trust him more than most of the long-term fund pumpers on CNBC who are never bearish.
      View article »
    • Mon Apr 14th 20:19 PM
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      Ultra and Inverse ETFs: The Downside of Doubling Up
      I love going fully margined on those ultras - 2.25 X 2. A 1% move = 4.5% move.
      View article »