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    • Tue Nov 25th 17:58 PM
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      Commented on:
      The More Things Change ...
      The idea of inflating the currency to wipe bad debts stinks. If you are concerned with pensions and entitlements of an ageing population, then the sure fire way of making the situation worse is to reduce the value of their savings.

      I can, with a bit of luck, look after myself in the current environment. But if we go to 10% inflation as in the 70's, stock market values will plunge even further, no dividends will keep up and I start to eat my capital. Well I can tell you that I will line up for government "assistance " really quickly long before I really need it. And why not, its government policy that makes me do it.
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    • Thu Nov 13th 00:13 AM
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      How Low Can They Go?
      Im with Chubb in that sometimes Bespoke does print interesting things that otherwise miss my attention. The problem for me is that its scatter gun. Even if there is an aspect of the market that appears interesting, it could well be the last time it gets a mention. Without follow through, it becomes entertainment rather than a base for analysis.
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    • Mon Oct 27th 23:19 PM
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      Did the End of the Investment Banks Cause the Latest Sell-Off?
      RE: the comments above.

      Given the huge amount of damage to people's retirement savings, plus the loss of confidence, should we not expect an authority to ask, "are you Prime Broker, reducing your exposure to your hedge fund clients, causing them to sell equities in a disorderly market, and by how much". And should we not expect an answer "Yes sir, by $XXX Billion".

      Why on earth is the explanation of this event being left to conjecture?
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    • Sat Oct 18th 00:58 AM
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      More Tarnish On the Greenspan Legacy
      Years ago, there was written a poem called "The Rhyme of the Ancient Mariner". As a very young boy, I liked it, and now, much older I like it more.

      In it a sailor kills an albatross, and the crew of the ship were agreeable because the bird "bought the fog and mist". Later the crew turns against the sailor because, now becalmed, the bird "made the breeze to blow".

      So it appears with Greenspan. In all those years of garbage spoken, no-one, it appears, challenged it. Instead an industry arose purporting to decipher it. As house prices rose, everyone owning a house was happy, in fact it was THE item of conversation, and never was heard a word condemning the fact that generationally, house ownership was fading for most who were born after 1980.

      Now we hear about how stupid the whole episode was. And what do we want to see, well I guess number one is house prices recovering. That even more stupid. In this period I recall Stephen Roach, Robert Schiller and Nariel Roubini as some of very few who came out publicly to decry the whole asset bubble phenomenon.

      And now "The Rhyme of the Ancient Mariner", written a hundred years ago, predicts the outcome. Hang the albatross around Greenspans' neck.

      No way, it should hang on millions of necks.
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    • Mon Aug 25th 22:35 PM
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      Witnessing the Biggest Transfer of Wealth in History
      Embarrased, I share your concern. In fact, I have come across an academic institution which uses articles from this web page as education material to show certain fallacies in financial evaluation.

      But even more so, I am shocked at the downmarket tone of so many contributors.
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    • Tue Aug 19th 18:44 PM
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      The Price of Oil - Cramer's Mad Money (8/18/08)
      User 183508, you should do a bit more work on Cramers' advice. What are the odds of success if Cramer says buy, and are they the same if Cramer says sell ?

      Sometimes I do a trade and immediately get the feeling it was wrong, and it stays that way. On that basis it feels like I also am flip flopping for myself, but once you get uncomfortable with a position, its best to liquidate.
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    • Tue Aug 19th 17:31 PM
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      Options as a 'Gold'en Opportunity
      Seeing as this is a take on McMillan, we should refer to his explanations for doing this trade. Its hedged. You should expect to make less profit on a hedged position than on a speculative position.

      Why make a hedged trade? I would say in this market, it makes a lot of sense. It is so easy to miss a directional move.
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    • Tue Aug 19th 17:20 PM
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      Commented on:
      Four Brazilian Profit Plays
      And then of course, we have BHP RIO and Woodside in Australia, which give just about the same return profiles, and have exposure to the same commodity prices but with reduced economic and regulatory risk.
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    • Wed Aug 13th 16:24 PM
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      The Downside of Momentum-Based Investing
      Kevin, as a holder of a few of these I appreciate your article.

      Its a tough world. Had I valued these stocks using normal metrics and listening to broker advice, I would never have bought them. They were always too expensive. But as each day passed, earnings were upgraded and upgraded again until somehow it appeared that the market was the lead indicator and the analysts were just catching up to the true story.

      At some point in time, the implied growth rate in the valuation seemed too much, and maybe at that time, the tables turned.

      If I have a secret to share, its that I scan the index for these opportunities and I invest in them on a portfolio basis, not as individual picks, nor on the advice of Cramer. So I was lucky (maybe skillful) that my momentum analysis found them early. I must say, I don't know what to do now.
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    • Thu Aug 7th 03:19 AM
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      Commodities: On the Downhill Slope?
      I handle the allocation question by reference to a risk reward ratio, similar to say a Sharpe ratio or Sortino ratio. Six months ago these ratio's implied to me that the resources area was favorable and deserved a higher allocation. While the outlook for commodities probably hasn't changed that much, the stock market risk/reward structure has, and it is appropriate to scale back the allocation to resources until these ratio's become acceptable.

      The other thing is the psychology of seeing stocks fall 10% in one day and recover 6% the next day. It is very very hard to maintain investment discipline while moves of this magnitude occur on a regular basis, and I would rather have my mind (and pocket) free of the distraction.
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    • Sat Aug 2nd 01:51 AM
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      House Prices Falling In Australia [Housing Tracker]
      Zircon-212. The one statistic that can be relied upon least is one supplied by the real estate industry. Given the problems associated with compiling these statistics, I would have to be convinced that a 0.6% to 2% drop is statistically meaningful. In any case what is at issue is whether there is the start of a systemic reduction. That is certainly the case in USA and UK. In my view that is not the case in Australia. The situation in Australia is that there is a housing shortage. This will therefore underpin prices for a long time. I don't think I am talking my book, I think its a real social and generational issue precisely because it does not appear to have an end. And that means most folks born after 1980 have no chance of entering the housing market, while at the same time being squeezed out of the rental market as well. As I said, I consider it to be a monumental mismanagement of Australia's economy.

      Iansingman finds it hard to believe the prices quoted, but its true. In fact I would say he would be hard pressed to buy a 600sq m block of land in the capital cities for less than $300,000. Years ago, one might consider moving to some far flung town to get cheaper housing. I have recently returned from a holiday to Alice Springs, which is pretty far flung, and the cost of housing there easily meets $700,000. Australia is not cheap anymore.
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    • Fri Aug 1st 01:29 AM
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      House Prices Falling In Australia [Housing Tracker]
      In fact various real estate analysts in Australia have predicted the opposite. With a reasonably sound economy, low unemployment and population growth due to strong migration plus lagging construction of new dwellings, the pundits say that there is a housing shortage. Consequently prices are not expected to fall, and worse rents are expected to skyrocket.

      The housing market in Australia is an outcome of the worst possible government inaction, where demand is being stimulated and supply is artificially reduced. Why, I don't know, but the net of it is that a median house is now 10 times median salary, and there is no pressure for that to reduce. None at all.
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    • Thu Jul 24th 17:47 PM
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      News Flash: Major Market Turns Aren't Announced In Advance
      Tom makes a good point that has always puzzled me. While his example is current and topical the theme is universal. In my time as a portfolio manager, I would notice unexpected price moves, ring any number of analysts to find out what was going on, only to be told they didn't know. Then I would ring the company, and they say nothing, then I would talk to other industry people and they were non the wiser. No one appears to know except the market, but who is the market?

      Following this I decided that fundamental analysis and valuation is very limited in finding good and timely investment ideas. I developed a quant based system based on risk/reward analysis and now I have no trouble spotting interesting companies, and I invest when the signal says so and justify it later.

      To date this signal says no the the banks, but I am with Tom. When the signal says go, then despite any other analysis, I will go.
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    • Thu Jul 24th 06:18 AM
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      Lufkin Industries Up as Oil Prices Surge
      I run a quant based stock picking system, and just to let you know you are not alone, it identified this stock as a good buy on the basis of a favorable risk/reward metric.

      I run the data on all companies in an index, so I don't know what the market thinks of it. Then again, listening to the market chatter is more likely to hinder a decision to invest rather than to assist.

      It will be in my portfolio today, and I'm sorry I didn't find it sooner.
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    • Fri Jul 18th 06:29 AM
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      ForeclosureS.com: One Million Foreclosures By Year's End [Housing Tracker]
      Thanks guys for the above response to my original question.

      In Australia, the bank has recourse to the lender in the event that a house doesn't sell for at least the amount owed. So most people just sell out prior to being put into default.

      I had an idea that, where houses double in price, as they have, that a US bank would have a good incentive to lend to people that couldn't repay, take possession a few years down the track, and then keep a substantial portion of the capital gain.
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