JREB777

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    • Fri Nov 7th 13:14 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Incentives: A Positive Trend Developing For Homebuilders?
      Give us a break.
      Incentives are down by a few percentage points, but final sale price is down by double digits!
      Yes of course people prefer a lower price to a lot of stuff in their home they are not really in need. Marble, Granit, etc.
      Buyers are just saying give me the low price and that is it!
      Home builders are saying, we are done with the granti top inventory and thus there is no monetizing those items any more, so no need to push them.

      No wonder most have lost money in the market.
      Like you, they have no idea what is really happening and portend a thesis that has no logic.

      Good luck!
      You will need it.
      View article »
    • Thu Aug 28th 22:59 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Homebuilders Face Pricier Materials [Housing Tracker]
      Houses will go up? Tell that to the Japanese 20 years later their houses are still worth 20% off their peak.
      No! Houses and all other assets alike can go down for a long time before they get reinflated again.
      So this article is wrong.
      It has happend before in the economy and it will happen again.
      Just because one is 40yrs old and only remembers the current cycle means nothing when assets start to deflate like some times they do.
      View article »
    • Thu Aug 28th 22:54 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Don't Confuse the Stock with the Company, or the Market with the Economy
      Many things in the article are right. But the only miss is that.. No! The market hasn't reached it's low. Every time we get this kind of economic event, it is always followed by a wash out sell of in WallStreet as it gets clensed from the regular investor.
      This hasn't happend yet. Unless this time is different, we havn't reached a bottom yet.
      Maybe it is getting ready and it will rally some 500 points to then drop 2000 one day and be below 10,000 as it should.
      Be carefull out there.
      View article »
    • Sun Jul 13th 00:35 AM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Predicting the Future of a Troubled Business
      What a foolish article.
      No wonder that people lose money in the stock market.
      And for Joe Ponzio to reprint this plethora of numbers that half way through reading the article one has lost complete track of what it means. Even the math is not right.
      Good luck.
      View article »
    • Fri Jul 4th 20:41 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Commodity Driven Role Reversal
      It all looks very good. But now comes the real thing.
      I live in three different countries: USA, Taiwan/China, and Peru.
      I move between these 3 every month.
      If you think the US consumer is hurting with high prices you can't imagine what is happening in the other two.
      US feels bad.
      Taiwanese are very much afraid and taking action to curtail spending.
      Chinese are being squeezed and their budgets can't sustain even $2 gas right now due to all the inflation.
      Peruvians are just plain dead. They now can't even feed their families because 50% of their budget has now gone up in price 200%

      So deman destruction takes time as people adapt, but it is taking place right now at an unprecedented level.
      By next year we will all realize that the world will be consumig 80million bpd from the current 87 million. The last 7 million bpd then, will be looking for a buyer and they will not find one until it is below $50
      This is how recessions work and this time it will not be any different.
      View article »
    • Wed Jul 2nd 06:19 AM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      That Was Ugly
      What a stupid article.
      Any one that draws and investment strategy based on this will shurely fail.
      Because even though things repeat themselves to a certain extent, the start and end points don't obey to any monthly schedule, they just happen when they do.
      Good luck.
      View article »
    • Wed May 28th 06:02 AM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Recession: The Forgotten Indicia
      Karmaguy hits the spot.
      GDP is measured by growth minus inflation.
      If we take current growth 3% minus real inflation 6% and going higher then we get our current real GDP growth of -3% well within recession territory.
      The reality is that while government figures are correct, they don't tell the truth now but they will in the future.
      View article »
    • Mon May 19th 04:51 AM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      AU Optronics: Ridiculously Cheap
      A free PUMP. I work for AUO and we are seeing a dramatic drop in BTO. We expect a sequential drop of another 15 to 20% in the next quarter.
      Wait until the stock is below $15 before you buy any. We have had a good last 12mo. Due to the olimpics and some Dig. TV perps in the US.
      US weakness and the start of what seems to be weakness in Asia is what is driving our sales down at this point.
      ZACKS apparently seem to be trying to offload some positions that it aquired earlier in the year.
      Be careful out there.
      Tamen she heng bai ch.
      View article »
    • Sun May 18th 00:37 AM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Treasury Yields: A Real-Time Market Sentiment Gauge
      That holds true as long as inflation is close to 0% Add inflation to the equation and then any short or long term interest rates will be affected albeit at different levels.
      Maybe the FED may just need to increase the FED funds rate even in light of lower economic performance going forward just to offset inflation pressures and to help strengthen the dollar.
      Your view while correct is just to simplistic a measure to invest upon or draw up a conclusion.
      Good luck.
      View article »
    • Fri May 2nd 21:06 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      How a Weaker Dollar Can Mean a Bigger Trade Deficit
      The real trade surplus will come from a cheap dollar, US recession.
      There is no magic bullet in this game.
      For those that believe that China will be pulling the US out of this slump, I suggest they go there and take a look around.
      They all live, work, save, and talk US business. 50% of everything being built, sold, or traded is in some way connected to the US economy.
      So to all of you talking about economic disconnect etc. I suggest you invest a bit on a round trip ticket and go visit Zhenzhen, or the outskirts of Shanghai to see, feel and smell the consumer that will pull the us out of this mess.
      Good luck.
      View article »
    • Sun Feb 24th 21:06 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Shorting the Homebuilders as Their Stocks Surge
      Pricing this is simple. Go back to before the beginning of the housing bubble 1999 and look at the price of the HBs. We will be there before we go any higher.
      If things really get uggly, I don't believe they will, then we may go back to 1992-94 stock prices. Back then they where worth 1/20th what they are worth today.
      Good luck, but the trend is lower.
      View article »