iThinkBig

http://www.ragingdebate.com

576 Comments

    • Infrastructure Is Making News [view article]
      These are all good points and I don't disagree. Think I will start an export business next year. Aug 29 03:34 PM
    • Eyes Off the Target [view article]
      For negativity CHL in 2008, it depends what spectrum you are in the economy. If you were invested in commodities such a food, energy and metals you probabily did just fine. If you were in management of a multinational corporation you probably did just fine. If you were in government, you probably received a cost of living increase and did just fine. This represents 49% of the GDP. If you were in small business or in the service economy which is 51% of the GDP, you probably got slaughtered. The real issue and problem with our economy going forward is that Main St. will always drag down Wall St. The numbers Mr Wolf is mentioning in the Corporate Profits section are demonstrating this is occuring. Main St. is dragging down Wall St. and this is a Washington policy issue to address.

      You can think of it simply like this also: 5 years of a few hundred thousand people in the US moving around a couple trillion dollars and making incredible gains/profits. More power to them! But for a continued, successful economic model, it is the innovators and small business that are the pillars holding up the platform. Those pillars have cracks and have begun to crumble. Some of what occured in banking or housing could be called criminal. But most of what occured was a seven year hyperinflationary period of money from 2001-2007 and a 25 year supercredit bubble now bursting. The 51% GDP will be unable to recover in a short time period. More like 4-5 years and the recovery time based on Washington policy. There will be incredible buying opportunities with those with lots of cash and nor should shrewd investors be considered as anything but. Buy and hold strategies will become far more normal while short-term immediate profitereeing is what is going away for the investment community at large.       Aug 29 12:20 PM
    • So Why Does It Feel Like a Recession? [view article]
      "On the good side, this scenario could decrease upward pressure on energy prices. Oil below $100 for a significant period of time? Yes, it could happen. A correlated question is: Will oil below $100 provide an excuse to avoid facing our long-term energy problem?"

      This is a really good question. I only have an opinion and that is based on proposals by both Democrats and Republicans. Either or shall both launch an energy independence program even if oil is at $90 in March of 2009. I believe both parties recognize that energy is now a national security as well as economic issue. Each camp varies on approach with Dems heavily leaning toward natural gas, more hybrid vehicles, some hydrogen improved MPG standards, some nuclear and 'clean' coal/biodeisel (LOL on that one, all coal was considered DIRTY to House Dems one year ago).

      The idea of taxing the oil companies to give $1,000 rebate to Americans is a foolish one and I really hope this doesn't occur. I believe it is just an election strategy by Obama or lip service in other words. But the rest of the $150 B energy investment plan seems to have some merit.

      I do favor the Republican plan which in many ways are similar to the Democrat plan and includes drilling offshore, ANWR, Bakken, nuclear, coal/biodesel, hydrogen/battery research.

      Both plans will increase skilled jobs and begin to offset petroleum prices in the mid-term.       Aug 29 11:25 AM
    • So Why Does It Feel Like a Recession? [view article]
      You nailed it Paul. I do agree with your premise particularly on exports and overall analysis Gabe, just feel it will take longer for a recovery then you believe. This is because of the mountain of debt the consumer will need to restructure, service or default. Job creation also takes time to boost wages which speaks into your export analysis. Energy jobs will be created next year as well but this will take 12-24 months to begin having a real impact on stabalizing the economy. Housing will remain a negative counter-balance through much of 2009.

      Washington policy (or lack thereof) come this March will determine the recovery time of our economy. Geopolitics is a wild card. North Korea or Iran testing nukes would create some further market instability and let's pray we see no terror spectacular between December-March.

      I still say the next Bull will be 2013 and in between it will be years of light recession-heavy recession and possible depression based on Washington's response.       Aug 29 11:07 AM
    • The Economics of Political Spin [view article]
      Great comments Fitzman. Aug 27 11:20 PM
    • The Reason to Ignore Most Economists [view article]
      The article should of been titled: Cheerleading 101 . Aug 27 11:05 PM
    • Consumer Confidence Improves in August [view article]
      Correct 300mph. Also, election excitement that "Change" is coming soon impacts these 'expected' forecasts. Aug 27 10:44 PM
    • Marketers Reducing Ad Budgets in Difficult Economic Times [view article]
      I am in Consumer Healthcare marketing. Advertising is an outright depressed sector. I am doing OK because I always had an economic 101, risk-sharing model. I chose hard work over laziness in my organization. Now, this is a wonderful demand-supply issue. I have almost no competition, even from search engines because there is a skilled marketing personell problem to help solve. Instead of blathering here, I will post and article now on SA to help those CEO's to solve this problem. Sometimes it pays to educate less skilled CEO's and this will be one of those times I can return the favor. Lisa, this will probably help you as well. Aug 27 08:02 PM
    • U.S. Household Debt: A Frightening Picture [view article]
      That is a correct analysis Richard but health care can and must be reformed and I am not speaking of nationalizing it either. There was $34 B in Medicaid and Medicaire fraud in 2007. I speculate that half of it is from 'immigrants' or what they were called and should always be called: ILLEGAL ALIENS. Once the fraud has finally been investigated and shut down as an important first step, the next one is to negotiate drug discounts with big pharma. Negotiate means the government offers something of value to big pharma, ya know simple things like the ability to retain patients through loyalty programs. Negotiate does NOT MEAN TELL. And that is exactly what the House Democrats tried to do in 2006, like they are talking about doing with big oil. Go the Dennis Hastert route. And no, not getting into political crap and shilling. Both parties have failed miserably in the last decade. Truly a Cerberus animal now, couple of heads with big fangs and one ugly dog. Aug 27 07:45 PM
    • Another Depression? [view article]
      I am an optomist for the future of mankind. Ready for the heavy lifting required. No more fear of the uknown. It is known, it is a deflation from August 2007 GDP to 80% of it's former glory. That's still a $10 T economy. And to be frank, I hate suffering but I can't stand the self-absorbed, narcassistic assholes being cranked out of colleges these days and into government and central banking. Think of the coming crash as a dark black pool. When you dump several bags of shock into it and flick the filter switch on the water becomes clear in a couple of days. When the crash does come, a portion of our government will be impeached and some true public servants will take over. Some of us here will step up, although it will not be a fun job. Many politicians I know that people think are brilliant are the dimmest bulbs on the planet. These types just happen to be good sales people :)

      My advice I tell all - Buy 60 days supply of food, I prefer wheat pasta and butter flavored Crisco. Have a bottle of chlorine bleach to add one drop to purify two gallons of water, making almost any water supply drinkable. Stick it in a couple of plastic bins and hope you never need it. However, as Ben Franklin once said 'Its better to have it and not need it then need it and not have it'. Besides that, we'll get through a depression and then square off against our enemies. Jim Carey has some good historical points and contexts. America still has a very formidable military to seal it's borders, enough innovators to tap our own energy, America has six times the food supply of the Great Depression era with only twice the population. The comforts and luxuries are what will kill of many in our nation and that is a shame. War will kill those not prepared in mind and spirit, but as a nation we will survive, just as the USSR is now Russian Federation, we will be called something else besides the USA by the time it is all over.

      Specific forecast: Bull market in 2013. North Korean conflict and true flash point of WWIII by 2015. WWIII would last about five years and go nuclear. 1/3 world population of casualties. 1,000 years of peace afterwards and amazing technology innovation including fixing our broken genetics and the ability to accelerate particles of energy many times the speed of light, insert AI into them and explore the entire universe in a second. Good things coming friends, just take care of your famalies and neighbors. The American population will get it's grit back, but pain is the catalyst that spurs necessary innovation. Necessity is the mother of all invention. God bless and see you on the battle lines gentlemen (and ladies).       Aug 27 07:03 PM
    • Berkshire Hathaway: Like a Kid in a Candy Store [view article]
      "Some observers contend that Buffett has become too distracted with too much ukulele-playing at Berkshire Hathaway’s investor gatherings and catching the public eye with trips to China, shown live on financial cable channel CNBC. Buffet is now also intent on saving the United States from "itself" and the mountain of debt it has amassed, which is the reason for his participation (and stellar performance) in the financial documentary "I.O.U.S.A.."... "

      I am involved in the attempt to save America from itself also. What I would actually call it is damage control and sparing as many lives as possible very real pain. Warren Buffet is what you call a true Christian and many get confused because of organized religion. Christianity is a code of ethics, it means you are willing to put others before yourself, even to death. I know this, because he takes the time to post information here at SA. That takes time to educate others, time he could use to add some zeros to his bank account.

      Some feel this is a waste of time, to sacrifice for others when needed, but no this is not true. It actually creates some very nice investment opportunities down the line and creates trust as an honest player. If he is a kid in the candy shop then he did a great job on his paper route and save his pennies for the right time when all the other kids pissed there's away on tootsie rolls.

      In reading Warren Buffets biographies and his writings here, I come to the conclusion he learned fundamentals at an early age and lived by them. This was balanced with his Judeo-Christian belief system that America was founded on and once so prosperously lived by.

      He looks at a big picture using common sense of cause and effect and applies historical context based on repetetive human nature. A good gentleman and role model. Not a god, one who acquired wisdom from knowing God.       Aug 27 06:06 PM
    • The People's Republic of America? [view article]
      I like that, the 'Peoples Republic of America'. We'll need a new name as we eventually default on our national debts like the USSR. Decent article, excellent comments. Aug 27 05:46 PM
    • Grab Your Shorts, the Tide Has Turned [view article]
      I appreciate that Dr. Waterbury. I have some ideas on that front: ragingdebate.com/whati... . My team (I am a founder) just went live literally a few minutes ago... Advertising heavily. I am a connector of peopple and owner of some interesting advertising assets. I have worked for several politicians on fund raising (survey/analysis/marke... plan) and advised this President a bit through contacts on economics/energy. The Time magazine cover with Gov Dean making record fund raising? Yeah... I did the survey/analytics of potential voters and made key recommendations of how to use social network (when that wasn't quite a term yet) to generate campaign donations and segment the activist into certain groups, further profile and self-perpetuate. But I certainly am under no illusions, I can't do it alone but have started speaking with some heavy hitters and a heck of a lot of contributors.

      Voter revolts do occur, the last one was in 1933 when 206 of 531 incumbants were ousted. Similar events occurred in 1861 and 1877. History rythmes as human nature never changes. It willl occur again in 2012. It is about retention ratios of House Congress and Senate and getting true public servants in. It has been 75 years since the aggregate retention ratio was under 85%. The free market including Washington, does work but it certainly doesn't fix itself on its own. People fix it.

      And in these next few years, pain points will multiply for the American people similar to the events of 1929-1933. It does take time to gather a movement and connect the stars with a simple ambition to serve the public. The retention rates plunge when American citizens feel the economic woes and get off the couch. Right now, half the country wants a bailout and thinks that will solve it. Socialism being used to attempt to fix Socialism, just like 1930's. So in one fashion I agree, the time is not right and this government itself may collapse in-between, anything seems possible right now. But pending that, expect voter registration in 2012.       Aug 26 07:32 PM
    • The Dollar and Trade Deficit: How Does Productivity Fit In? [view article]
      Interesting article and analysis. I like your stuff Mr. Chinn. Aug 26 06:24 PM
    • Grab Your Shorts, the Tide Has Turned [view article]
      1) Mr Bornstein, your comment trail shows you almost consistently wrong this entire last year. I ask what this means:

      "Both agencies have been created by the Congress(implicit U.S government guarantee), with the aim to assist the housing market.
      There is no bailout involved .If either of the agencies had to face financial issues ,the governmemt would have to live up to the implicit guarantee-nothing is wrong with this potential action if ever there was a need for it. In fact potential for such an action should enhance perception of the market stabilty'

      Whom is the government, do you mean the taxpayers? Do you mean the debt-laden, house deflating, job losing middle class being ripped at now all sides by predatory utilities, local and state governments? Please extrapolate if this means the taxpayer Mr Bornstein. Because right now to me that is what it means to me and historically, the middle class takes it way up the keister in such affairs and that does NOT promote market stability. 70% of our economy is consumer driven.

      You comments of 'bullish with a lag'. What does that mean, exactly? 2020? I have stated for several months the next Bull is 2013, since June of 2007 chance of recession this year 100%. I don't want credit or to sound important, I give a damn about my countrymen, so stop sounding so obtuse about 'government implied' guarantees.

      My comment trail explains my positions of why I feel this way about prior forecasts. Now, since we are all a shade tired of just regurgitating the obvious, here are my solutions and which sectors will provide some shade next year (as this year is shot, minus some obvious shorts):

      Washington Policy:

      1) Energy- the national focus and investment should consumer 35% of our entire GDP if we wish to avoid the Great Depression part II. As it stands now, very nasty long-lasting recession if good policy emerges from Washington in this and other areas.
      2) Healthcare - Enact discount drug program with big pharma. Approaching them with 'discount or else' in 2006 by House Democrats was STUPID. Go the Dennis Hastert route of 2000. This will promote loyalty programs with big pharma patients and cross-sales opportunities. This also keep clinical trial business in the US. Investigate Medicaid and Medicair fraud and prosecute much.
      3) Education - I like Bush's proposed $300 B Higher Ed bill. Too bad this Congress made him a lame duck, this one of his better ideas. I assume this will pass next year and the funds must be better managed to improving college standards. Like Healthcare, work with private colleges to offer multiple 'grants' (in other words discounts) . Time to stop pissing good money away and NOT supervising the entire affair. Laziness abounds in Washington. Not new but reaching alarming levels.
      4) Lube multiple regional banks that have displayed fiscal disipline these last few years. Stop feeding ugly, dishonest iBanks and begin investigations for fraud. No investigations, the global investor keeps shorting into oblivion. Force taxpayers to pay again, get pitchforks. There are many now joining the good guys network to educate the population. Not to forment revolt, but to let people have the facts and decide what should be done about this continuing disgusting problem. Perhaps by 2012 we'll see the voter revolution needed to get half of Washington back on a beach someplace warm instead of office creating new schemes to rape the middle class, tax the wealthy, most of which spent an entire lifetime earning and stop malinvestment into the least productive of our society to bribe votes.
      5) Enforce immigration laws to seal our southern border and DO fine businesses hiring them. No more $30k per year entitlements tax free so Latino queens can drive around in an SUV on my and yours dime, then go back to a couch to call friends to complain why we all don't learn spanish. Meanwhile, the guy making $30k a year working 40 hours a week can't to get to work or feed a family.

      Short & Mid Term Shade Sectors:
      Agriculture, Consumer Healthcare, Energy, Higher Education, Efficiency Technology, Railroads       Aug 26 04:35 PM
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