iThinkBig

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899 Comments

    • Mon Nov 24th 12:12 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Buffett's Gamble: $40 Billion Bet on Volatility
      Government is picking winners and losers. WB positions seem to mirror this reality with the ability to influence who those winners and losers will be. I would not argue against this investment strategy. The kid writing the article seems correct in his last sentence. If what is coming is worse then the Great Depression in terms of severity and length, Buffet loses. If it is worse in severity but short as I expect it will be then Buffet wins. I am strongly in the camp we'll see the formation of the next Bull market in 2013.

      There is serious risk vs. reward at play here. A small but real risk is that America collectively defaults en masse on it's debts due to the current lack of solid leadership in Washington and has to restructure the entire nation rather then portions of it's economy back to Save and Invest.
      View article »
    • Mon Nov 24th 10:34 AM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Valuations Today: More Pessimistic than During the Great Depression
      The article backs up in numbers what many of us assume will happen going forward in the short and mid terms - deflation occuring now in the short term as deleveraging occurs and inflation occuring in the mid-term.
      View article »
    • Fri Nov 21st 09:42 AM
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      Rating: +1 -1
      Commented on:
      The Downfall of Keynesian Economics and the U.S. (Part 3 of 3)
      I'll repeat my assumptions:

      1) U.S. will have a depression. W shaped, recession brief respite and strong bear rally and then hyperinflation, then depression.
      2) Voter revolution will occur in 2012. The citizens take about four years to get off the couch and do research into whom the corrupt are in Washington.
      3) Expect formation of the next bull in 2013.

      To Alex's point I always have three months of food, medicines, water supply, have weapons and ammo. Every American should always have this even in strong economic times. When you have this life insurance policy covered for your family then you'll find you'll go about your business with less fear. To many online in the last year, I have always encouraged people to think what the absolute worst case scenerio is. That would be the population on wheat pasta and other such rations. The upside? We would remove the corrupt from office in a damn quick hurry and restore our Republic. Take care of each other during this time. I have already began enjoying new friends in my neighbors I have helped and they return the favor in other forms of trade.
      View article »
    • Thu Nov 20th 18:59 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Automakers: Bailout Arguments, Pro and Con
      Great idea on $4.00 gas. It caused the second wave of the market crash. Besides, GM already has the Chevy Volt and serious mass production plans. Bankrupt it, say goodbye to management and the union and then let's talk.




      On Nov 20 01:45 AM By all Means wrote:

      > JP
      > won't happen until the government gets its head out of its behind
      > and fixes fuel prices at a minimum 3.50 to 4.00 That is the threshold
      > where the public really gets behind buying a green or a smaller car.
      > Without this its pointless as people wont buy. Lets get real here.
      > The Toyota prius sold like crazy in the run up to 4.00 fuel. then
      > it stalled or flatlined in sales voulume in july/august. And the
      > total impact of the Prius nationwide was only 2% of the market. They
      > had volume issues at first but they adjusted for it by early summer.
      > The bottom line is that americans talk a good line about wanting
      > hybrids but the reality is less than 2% of the cars sold in the USA
      > last year were Prius hybrids. And thats at 4 dollars.
      >
      > So wheres the disconnect? Are the green huggers screaming louder
      > than everyone else on the web making it look like everyone just has
      > to have one now. Or is everyone just chanting a good line but wouldn't
      > be caught dead in one even at 4.00 fuel. Maybe it takes 5 or 6 or
      > 7 or 9 like most of the EU for people stop talking a good line and
      > get real about it. When the public's ready to get real the automakers
      > will get real.
      View article »
    • Thu Nov 20th 15:23 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Investment Woes Torpedo Markets
      I am going to buy next year after Q1 but will ignore the financial sector.
      View article »
    • Thu Nov 20th 15:12 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Calling a Depression
      We are not at what we would call a depression, just the beginning of one. But this comes as a W shaped formation with a recession then a likely 3-4 quarter rally, then the hyperinflation, positive loop effects cumulating around 2011. That is a forecast I had predicted almost a year ago and I do not believe I needed to be a rocket scientist to figure it out. Things move faster then in 1929 due to technology. That is why I believe we will reach depressionary conditions faster then that era but also why we will revive a bit more quickly (Washington policy is wild card on this timing forecast). I also will reiterate that the U.S. will see a bull market in 2013.

      Don't worry Mr. Merkle, I wager you will do just fine economically over the next few short years. The geopolitical consequences and history rythming and creating a world war is another matter entirely. I live in faith, not in fear. Man is on the verge of the best era of scientific and qualitative living in history.
      View article »
    • Tue Nov 18th 12:39 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Guess Which Retail Items Are Selling Best and Worst?
      Even more valuable would be a survey on future purchase intent by retail category. I do like Neisen and have worked with them in the past.


      On Nov 18 10:18 AM nickgogerty wrote:

      > IRI and Nielsen research provide item level data from bar code tracking.
      > It is pricey, but compelling.
      View article »
    • Tue Nov 18th 12:18 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      A No-Confidence Vote Among Financial Stocks
      No confidence in management. Not enough house cleaning and transparency.
      View article »
    • Tue Nov 18th 12:14 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Memo to Warren: AmEx Preferred at 15%, Warrants at $12
      That comment was directed to APPRO.


      On Nov 18 12:07 PM iThinkBig wrote:

      > You are the type of person that has me investing in building a very
      > tall, secure fence around my property along with ammunition for me
      > and my two sons. The ignorant mob will want it's vengeance and is
      > too stupid to know whom to eradicate.
      >
      > A value proposition for AMEX to the market could be lending to small
      > businesses and innovators as loans guaranteed by the U.S. government,
      > not much different then the SBA but with a very talented captain
      > guiding the ship.
      View article »
    • Tue Nov 18th 12:12 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Memo to Warren: AmEx Preferred at 15%, Warrants at $12
      I can't speak for SA but I am in the digital media space. Many companies use Google tracking for redundancy. For SA: Check out the product Open X. It is a tad sophisticated to learn because it does everything soup to nuts when most sites only need simplicity, but the product is wonderful and stable. Of course, being freeware is also nice.


      On Nov 17 07:15 PM curbs-in wrote:

      > First of all, Does anybody know why Seeking Alpha now requires two
      > Google Corporation scripts to be run in your browser in order to
      > post on Seeking Alpha?
      >
      > Both of the scripts being run by the Google Corporation on Seeking
      > Alpha have been flags as unsafe by my computer security software.
      >
      >
      > There is another script that is also being run by Seeking Alpha from
      > nuconomy.com that is flagged by security protection software as a
      > privacy concern. Now I have to use a computer at an Internet cafe
      > to post on their computers. Crazy!
      >
      > Is Seeking Alpha now violating privacy of posters, or reporting back
      > to Paulson, Pelosi and Frank who is posting what against them? LOL!
      >
      >
      > Anyhow...
      >
      >
      > MESSAGE TO WARREN:
      >
      > No cuts in the soup line!
      >
      > Don't lie on your Food Stamp application!
      View article »
    • Tue Nov 18th 12:07 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Memo to Warren: AmEx Preferred at 15%, Warrants at $12
      You are the type of person that has me investing in building a very tall, secure fence around my property along with ammunition for me and my two sons. The ignorant mob will want it's vengeance and is too stupid to know whom to eradicate.

      A value proposition for AMEX to the market could be lending to small businesses and innovators as loans guaranteed by the U.S. government, not much different then the SBA but with a very talented captain guiding the ship.


      On Nov 16 05:12 PM James Cullen wrote:

      > Utterly vacuous.
      View article »
    • Mon Nov 17th 17:51 PM
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      Rating: +1 0
      Commented on:
      GM Bailout Would Be Agony for Taxpayers
      Well, I am not in the manufacturing world either. But I am in consumer research as part of my businesses while I also conduct it daily to improve my own businesses. The Japanese outspend Detroit in this regard, period. Research is NOT marketing. Research is understanding the competitive global environment and making necessary changes. Research is understanding that in the boom years, Americans wanted service, not nickel and diming on parts and labor wasting an individuals time. Please do not counter with an argument that GM and the other U.S. auto makers could not afford this level of research and please do not counter GM could not make rapid adjustments. Such arguments point out the obvious - because if you make these counter arguments you demonstrate a failed business model that requires drastic downsizing and restructuring.

      My point of view is simply this at the beginning of the crisis: NO BAILOUTS FOR ANYBODY. That would have exposed the failures in leadership in Washington straight and to the point along with failed management at corporate beurocracies. That said, moral hazard is raging all about as government picks it's winners and losers but the real outrage by the public is the coddling of management and investor dividends/bonuses. When I see government cleaning house in management as a string for forcing the U.S. taxpayer to provide loans or direct investment into any organization then I will be very comfortable making investments into the financial sector or U.S. automotive sector. Until then, plenty of good buys elsewhere.


      On Nov 16 01:18 PM ex GM emp wrote:

      > With all due respect, Mr. Taylor, your credentials leave you far
      > away from the manufacturing world. I doubt you ever set foot in any
      > facility that produces real goods, except maybe a candy shop. Dear
      > Sir, try another line of work other than spouting your neo-con, greedy,
      > heartless, self important, vacuuous tripe printed herein. IMHO, you
      > are another one who mistakes his income for his value to society.
      View article »
    • Mon Nov 17th 17:13 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Macro Roundup: G20 Meeting, Retail Deterioration, Japanese Negative Growth
      It's a giant mission statement from failed leadership passing the baton. Strategy is one thing, tactics and implementation another.
      View article »
    • Mon Nov 17th 17:08 PM
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      Rating: +1 0
      Commented on:
      The Fed: Now the World's Largest Private Bank
      Scary how there is no other comments here on this post. It's the stuff of revolutions but so few realize the true implications or how to effectively combat this.
      View article »
    • Mon Nov 17th 17:05 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Tech May Be a Wreck, But This Isn't 2001
      You got it Brewer, it's called a Tipping Point. Apple relies on outside developers for a large portion of it's digital content such as games and apps. They have shrewdly harnassed a global online collective at minimal cost. On another article here someone else pointed out that MSTF may face competition from Google on OS. Also, outsider developer strategy or what some refer as open source strategy. The trend is established and has proven successful thus far, no doubt about it. Come to think of it, IBM does a lot of this as well.
      View article »