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Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know Newsby SA Editor Rachael Granby- Bank trio becomes duo. Wells Fargo (WFC) will become the largest U.S. bank by branches with its bid for Wachovia (WB), after Citigroup (C) withdrew from compromise negotiations late yesterday on concerns about the quality of some of Wachovia's assets. Wells Fargo, with a bid valued at $11.4B, expects the purchase to be completed by the end of the year, and denies it will have to absorb assets shakier than originally thought.
- Government considers next steps. As the financial crisis continues to worsen, the U.S. government is considering two dramatic steps to turn around, or at least slow, the damage: guaranteeing billions of dollars in bank debt and temporarily insuring all U.S. bank deposits. The moves, which would mark the government's most extensive intervention to date, are in discussion stages only.
- Credit stays frozen. As frozen credit markets refuse to thaw, the cost of default protection on corporate bonds reaches new global records amid investor concerns the credit crisis will trigger corporate failures as companies struggle to finance their businesses. Interbank lending remains limited, and borrowing from the Fed's expanded discount window continued its trend of setting new highs every week, as the total daily average rose to $420.2B vs. $367.8B last week.
- Oil demand withers. The International Energy Agency warned Friday worldwide oil demand...
- The Macro View -SampleSeeking Alpha - The Macro ViewMarket Outlook
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Oil Price- Oil Below $75: Increased Chance of OPEC Production Cuts by Money Morning
- Oil Down 48% from Highs by Bespoke Investment Group
- Oil & Gas Headed Lower as Economy Strikes Consumers by Michael Filloon
Economy- Long Term, Financials Look Good by Michael Filloon
- Round 3 of the Recession: Main Street by Paul Fekula
- Reality Bites As Stocks Continue To Collapse by The Mole
- Investing Ideas -SampleSeeking Alpha - Investing IdeasCramer's Picks
- Farewell Financial Bear Raids - Cramer's Mad Money (10/14/08) by SA Editor Joan Wickham
- Better Picks - Cramer's Lightning Round (10/14/08) by SA Editor Joan Wickham
- Perhaps Industrials... Cramer's Stop Trading! (10/14/08) by SA Editor Joan Wickham
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- Two Global Infrastructure Investment Opportunities in ETFs by Investment U
- Market Behaves Sanely - Fast Money Recap (10/14/08) by SA Editor Joan Wickham
Short Ideas- Why Short Sellers Are the Heroes of Wall Street by Investment U
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- Jim Cramer's Picks -SampleBetter Choices - Cramer's Lightning Round (10/15/08)by SA Editor Rachael GranbyStocks discussed in the lightning round session of Jim Cramers Mad Money TV program,
Wednesday, October 15.Bullish Calls:Continental Resources (CLR) -- "This is a remarkable decline. All of the high quality ones are down so much, I can't go against it. This is where you pull the trigger.
3M (MMM) -- The moment this stock starts yielding 5%, I'm a buyer. Until then, keep your powder dry.Bearish Calls:Computer Sciences (CSC) -- This is a company that was going to be bought, but they passed up the chance. Now I don't want to buy it."Email continues...
Annaly Mortgage (NLY) -- I think this is a business model that needs to borrow money. Definitively do not buy."
Northrop Grumman (NOC) -- You can't own the defense stocks right now. If I had to own one, I'd look at Lockheed Martin (LMT) with its good dividend. - Stocks & Sectors -SampleSeeking Alpha - Stocks & SectorsInternet
- eBay: Q3 Looks Good but Q4 Guidance Disappoints by Greg Feirman
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- Why Today Could Suck for Tech by Kevin Maney
Media- A Triple Financial Whammy Afflicts Newspapers by Ken Doctor
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Telecom- Ten Ways to Invest in Louisiana by Stockerblog
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- Shared Docks Via WiFi All the Rage by Dean Bubley
Financial- Switzerland Strengthens Its Banks; Short Interest Remains Low by Jessica Johnson
- Reality Bites As Stocks Continue To Collapse by The Mole
- LIBOR Shows Worst Is Yet to Come for Credit Markets by Keith Fitz-Gerald
- Global Markets -SampleSeeking Alpha - Global MarketsChina
- An Outcry from Emerging and Developed Markets Alike by Jonathan O'Shaughnessy
- USANA Health Sciences Inc. Q3 2008 Earnings Call Transcript
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Latest Comments899 Comments
Foreign Investment in the United States: Reverse Globalization?
The best analogy is the forest and how the old tall trees with wide branches hogged all the sunlight, while the entrepenuars and innovation being the seedlings not being able to grow. In a liquid market of billions, no one wants to hear about start-ups.
So while globalization was pushed to the hilt, investment is needed in innovation. The free market does work however, because government and multinationals of 51% of our GDP have no choice to invest into Main St. or face deteriorating conditions here or collapse and the U.S. is still the safest play over the long-term.
Attitude toward other nations can be solved with research. Like many major companies, our government uses 5 page pamphlets that it disseminates to government staff about another culture. Lazy and incompetent. But the humility factor is going to be forced on our nation. Keep all trade open but regulate. A massive diplomatic effort will be necessary. Agree with expanding the G8 to G20. Offer membership to the entire globe for that matter, many empires crumbled not because of resentment against the empires, but because people wanted IN. End the global policemen role. If we are so worried about the sovereign wealth funds we should accelerate our exports and give the world what it wants to buy in raw commodities. And to do more of this we certainly must have a sane energy policy including ALL options and do this immediately. This will create skilled jobs in the U.S. and if backed by Treasury, will be heavily invested in by the global market bringing a lot of the money back home. I don't believe too many non-producing oil nations would complain about competing products. But we leave this to Brazil and Canada? Sheez. Talk about lack of self-centered narcassist on the Hill and both political parties!
Proposed Solution to Decline in American Wealth: Free Trade
Our Central Banking policy should not attempt to directly mirror the EU's, China's etc. Different nations, vastly different policies but it should move up slowly over time. But first, massive capital infusions should go into energy independence, education and healthcare to become far more efficient while creating two or three million jobs. If such infusions by government were launched now and backed by Treasury, you would begin seeing accelerated investment back into the country and along with skilled job creation, this would help the banks.
And the government will indeed cut it's spending considering it has won in Iraq (it HAPPENED, my good buddy is a journalist over there and served in Operation Desert Storm, interesting part is we more or less bribed the entire population to do it). Beyond that, trimmings on the defense of Europe and Asia will also occur. Why do we need so many boots on the ground to defend these nations? We can build 5,000 Predator drones armed with stuff from science fiction and still nuke this globe several times over. What we need is intelligence boots on the ground, far less expensive. Pork will be reduced because America is now watching, although I am sure it won't dissapear entirely, fear not you dilligent public servants you reading this up on the Hill :)
The Case for Cutting Fannie and Freddie Loose
America has far better communications and private equity money to focus on energy, healthcare and education to become extraordinarily efficient in a short amount of time. This is what Treasury and Congress should be doing RIGHT NOW, but there is no investment into innovation, just more socialism to feed sunlight to the dead rotting trees blocking the light from reaching the seedlings which will become responsible leadership someday. It has become about preservation of power, not different than other socialist/commie nations like China and Cuba. Now we must fight the enemy within and the enemy without and with far less resources so it will be a tough deal for many people to do the heavy lifting.
The Fannie / Freddie Bailout: Necessary, But Don't Expect a Happy Ending
There will be much rebuilding to do. I am not leaving the country as some are, I will run toward the problem. I have no doubt many other bright-minded guys will also that love this country. I will run for Congress in 2012, I have worked for many a candidate on data mining, fund-raising and advertising. I don't need the special 'sponsors' from the RNC or DNC. I am also setting up a fund for bright, motivated guys who want to run but can't take a year off from work and to avoid the lobby dough. That will require philanthropists of the American dream. We all know how that will be to raise the investment money, challenging will an understatement.
Why Google Rules the Online Ad Market, and How That Could Change
2) Site usability studies is something every major web property should do, but doesn't. Same as in any sector, lack of research kills.
3) Google will lose market share when marketers as a whole learn about value propositions. Google is still very cost effective at generating qualitative sales leads for an organization.
I know these things because I run a Consumer Healthcare website as a business and marketing model. Grabbing market share is easy now on a price-per-lead model that relies on a client's acquisition targets. The lack of marketing competition whom knows Economics 101 and is willing to use business intelligence to gather all the targeted sites for banner purchases is stunning.
Google won't cannibilize there pay per click model until they have to. Same with MSN for that matter. Right now both companies have time.
Meanwhile, a small competitor like me grabs major Fortune 1,000 accounts because my company knows how to eliminate advertising risk. It's not really amusing marketers in general are so dense, but I am asked constantly what the catch is when I am on conference calls with senior marketing management with our sales team. I tell them I remembered how to use a spreadsheet to calculate media buying to target and put up my personell costs to prove it in a small test budget. Then most importantly, my company does what it says.
Preferred Stocks Get Crushed
Plan B: Nationalization
Should I Buy Fannie or Freddie Stock Today?
U.S. Government Is Heading for a Slippery Slope
At that point, the dollar will collapse or we will be labeled as a fascist regime by the outside world as we default on public debt, and they will be correct. It's not nice what has been done to America. Fixing it is going to be rather unpleasant no matter which path the nation takes but any nation needs innovators and entrepenuars which shall someday be solid leadership. This is where money should be going in the burning forest, the seedlings, not preserving the old rotten trees stifling growth by stealing the sunlight.
Treasury Secretary Paulson Wants Fannie, Freddie Stocks Higher
The 'Canary in the Coalmine' for Fannie, Freddie
Executive Summary:
Business model:
Planning needed to build businesses too big to fail. I'll write the business plan. The head staff requirement is shown in our fiscal forecasting in the G&A bracket and includes D.C. lobbyists and overpaid beaurocrats as managers that have more failures then successes.
There is no break-even horizen requirement for our success nor do we include net profit forecasts, only top-line revenue. All profits will be taken from marked-to-market assets on inflated assets.
Investor risk: The investor risk is that the Federal government will actually show a spine and serve there constituents but we feel this risk is minimal. At some point in our plan, we'll be scrutinized by the open market and Federal regulators. To minimize these risks, we'll follow our business model as outlined above. The plan itself is designed to fail this is a risk but we feel confident we can extract our profits and reinvest them into other viable sectors to repeat our model to scale.
Investment Requirement: 60 T in notional monopoly money
Equity: 50% direct investor seeding, 50% taxpayer passive investment.
Treasury Bailout of GSEs: Laissez-Faire In Serious Jeopardy
Much to Like About the GSE Rescue
US Economy Still Has a Ways to Go
US Economy Still Has a Ways to Go
Now, what we appear to have is deflation/inflation. We are feeling stagflation at this stage of the pain but it appears things are getting worse. The writer and I feel the same way, there is ample opportunity to make money. Watch the politics of NYC and Washington.
They are coming to the conclusion JOBS must be created and we must increase our energy supply. How fast this occurs is anybody's guess because neither political candidate looks strong on the economy and nor do we know how taxes will change in the short or mid-term until after elections.
Overseas looks decent still as does alternative energy, consumer healthcare and tech still holding up and higher will be a big story next year, especially online. Gold should be decent short term and go up nicely in the mid-term. Oil? Yeah... no comment. Those going ultra long wager against the American consumer themself which has been discounted already as fodder. Yes to some extent but Main St. votes and the ire from the constituents cannot nor should no be ignored.