iThinkBig

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    • Thu Nov 13th 10:27 AM
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      Rating: +1 -1
      Commented on:
      Back at the Bottom
      I don't disagree. I'll just state my strategy. Wait until the end of Q1 2009 to see what Washington policy is going to be before buying. Winners and losers are still being chosen. I like the risk of GM despite going to be on Washington lifelines for a year or two. I now like some of the financials like JP Morgan.

      I am in the Consumer Healthcare sector and serve big pharma. Looks very ripe for five year buy and hold strategy but will Henry Waxman finally have his vengeance? By the end of Q1 I'll have a good idea of that and buy pharma or leave it alone.

      I'll say one thing, there are solutions to make money already. In the marketing sector it's called going back to fundamentals and a cost-per-sale model. We're in a deflation, some sectors deflating faster then others. So, buying the beat up banners and only pay them when conversions happens for clients and facilitating the technology to show all returns transparently. The numbers work for our company, the advertiser and the vendor. This is an illustration that one does not necessarily have to lay down and die because the economy is shedding 20% off and going back to Save and Invest for a good long time. I didn't need liquidity and or investment to do it either. The numbers told me when to shed the pounds and go lean and mean. The numbers tell me what to as a manager to make the business work in this new economic reality. The only advantage I may have had is simply that I do not avoid the reality of the downside and therefore ignored the pundits that were bullish for far too long.


      On Nov 13 10:05 AM JasonC wrote:

      > Personally I prefer a measured greed.
      >
      > Buy now. But start by buying bonds (corporates, not treasuries bid
      > to infinity) and other income producing asset types already smashed
      > to heck, with only 10-20% in equities. Concentrate the equity holding
      > in the most smashed sectors - finance, materials, retail. Then collect
      > your coupons, and as each one comes in, by a tiny bit more stock.
      >
      >
      > You won't care a lick when it ends, with this strategy. You will
      > get a better than average price on all the stock and will build back
      > up to a 50-50 position over several years. That is the right time
      > scale and risk level. In 5-10 years you will be doing well, when
      > others around you will have been first smashed, then turned off investing
      > entirely, and then sitting in cash yielding zero as recovery occurs.
      View article »
    • Thu Nov 13th 10:09 AM
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      Rating: +1 0
      Commented on:
      King Henry Paulson's Personal Fiefdom
      You will never see an apology out of Mr. Paulson. But it does look like the President is taking the reigns out of his hands a bit prior to leaving office which is a good thing. Fiscal stimulus plans toward job creation in energy was the biggest lost opportunity in 2008. Failure for government to be in touch with it's people and conduct adequate research to reveal this result is shameful. Washington is a reflection of our culture. It is human nature to not be paying attention when the basics of life are abundant. It creates a reactionary enviornment of wild pendulums.
      View article »
    • Tue Nov 11th 16:45 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      John Hussman: It's Tough to Buy Into Fear
      Even this downturn seems to have miffed the Oracle of Omaha a bit. All in all though he is indeed a smart man. He knows to watch what Washington does. That was probably my most repeated comment theme here at Seeking Alpha over the last year: You want to make money, watch Washington. Well now, that comment is old news right? WRONG! Wait and see what the actual policy begins to look like in Q1.

      I can wait that long to see if the market fishes for new bottoms or we see the telltale signs of a Bear rally.
      View article »
    • Tue Nov 11th 16:33 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      My U.S. Infrastructure and Employment Plan
      Actually, you last idea could be a very good one. Consolidate and cut costs and then treat them like a VC would with a young immature entrepenuar: You get your money in tranches WHEN you complete the product :)


      On Nov 11 01:59 PM kertch wrote:

      > Interesting, but I've heard all these things before. There are some
      > good ideas and some "less good" ideas.
      >
      > 1) Renewable energy development
      > This one always sounds great - like it did in the Carter years. However,
      > alternative energy just isn't economical yet. As an engineer I've
      > studied some of these alternative energy projects and once you calculate
      > the cost and efficiency of the entire plant it turns out to be more
      > expensive than traditional sources of power. As for a polution tax,
      > that will encourage the use of cleaner power but we'd just end up
      > paying for it with higher power bills. How many energy intensive
      > industries will chosse to remain in the U.S. when ultra-cheap coal
      > power is available in China and elsewhere? How will that create "lots
      > of high paying jobs". To initiate and maintain high levels R&D
      > is a good thing, but a solar, wind, and geothermal infrastructure
      > build-out is premature.
      >
      > 2) Power grid enhancements
      > An absolutely essential task. Our current electricity grid is stretched
      > to the limit. This is truely a massive problem and needs immediate
      > attention.
      >
      > 3) Housing redevelopment
      > After the worlds biggest residential building binge the idea of redeveloping
      > neighborhoods in the inner city while entire tracks of houses sit
      > vacant in the suburbs sounds crazy. Maybe all the suburbanites who
      > lost thier homes because they couldn't pay thier mortgages will move
      > back to these new redeveloped neighborhoods and buy these houses.
      > Right..... The solution to a hangover is not another binge.
      >
      > 4) Highway and bridge construction
      > Here's another piece of badly undermaintained infrastructure. The
      > amounts of money we should be spending here are in themselves a "stimulus
      > package". The American Society of Civil Engineers estimate that to
      > maintain our exististing transportation infrastructure and expand
      > it to meet future demands will require $300B per year... for the
      > next 50 years!
      >
      > 5) Transportation - non oil based US vehicle fleet
      > This is another good one, but the rapid change to non-oil based is
      > going to take a long time. The electric part will probably happen
      > first, but trying to choose which fuel should replace oil is just
      > a little too statist for me. So is the idea of banning oil altogether.
      > Perhaps the best way would be to develop an engine technology (for
      > example a gas turbine engine) that could burn any type of gaseous
      > or liquid fuel. That way we will never be at the mercy of a monopolistic
      > transport fuel like we are with oil today.
      >
      > 6) Ford and GM Reinvestment Plan
      > Why don't we just merge Ford, GM, and Chrysler and call it "The Federal
      > Department of Automobile Design and Manufacture", since this plan
      > would essentially nationalize them. Now some of you "sticklers' will
      > say that it's not actually nationalization, but let's get real. How
      > "private" is an enterprise when the government funds it, tells it
      > what to produce, and manages it's labor relations. When no one wants
      > to buy these government mandated cars and trucks we just add it to
      > the federal budget deficit. Problem solved! Meanwhile Honda, Toyota,
      > and BMW, and others will come out with their own versions which people
      > will actually want to buy, while the govenment will be subsidising
      > these obsolete companies for years.
      View article »
    • Tue Nov 11th 12:38 PM
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      Rating: +2 0
      Commented on:
      My U.S. Infrastructure and Employment Plan
      Great ideas but just taking an educated guess that nuclear power would be cheaper then retrofitting existng plants. Not to say it wouldn't be worth it however to provide carbon emission reduction tax credits to those coal fired plants. Electric is a great interim solution to reduce petroleum and create jobs here at home. But for that, you need nuclear and wind, solar is not enough.
      View article »
    • Tue Nov 11th 11:13 AM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      White-Hot Mad over AIG
      Ha! The citizens said NO to BAILOUT. PERIOD. Speak for yourself sir :)


      On Nov 11 09:53 AM Chris B wrote:

      > The problem is, we're a nation of wusses.
      >
      > We're totally terrified that we will have to lower our standard of
      > living to the standards of the rest of the developed world: No more
      > Starbucks lattes, no more 15 mpg SUV's, no more 3,500 sf McMansion,
      > no more spa treatments for the dog. In a futile attempt to hold onto
      > these things, we will allow the government to pile up unpayable debts
      > and take over the economy. Yea, that always works out well for democracy.
      > Visit Russia, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, or Venezuela for examples of
      > what happens when governments no longer depends on taxes from citizens
      > for funding.
      >
      > Perhaps if we had half the balls of the generation that fought the
      > Revolutionary War, we would take our lumps, start living sustainable
      > lifestyles, and invest in rebuilding our country rather than junk
      > mortgages on cheaply built mini-mansions. As it is, we are a nation
      > of cowards, eager to give our freedom away to anyone who offers to
      > soothe us (e.g. the "Patriot" act).
      View article »
    • Tue Nov 11th 11:10 AM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      White-Hot Mad over AIG
      Yves Smith did an incredible job in facts explaining how this entire affair is theft in broad daylight. The perps will go laughing off into the sunset (for now) but don't fear Mr. Waldman. There will be justice straight and to the point in the future. While this is likely the biggest global swindle by a nation that lost it's moral fabric, I doubt it will be the last. It was indeed cruel and unusual to snag once last massive round of looting at taxpayer expense. And you are correct, I conduct lots of surveys. The American public was 86% against the bailout. I personally would have rather had the economy crash and feed neighbors for a year but get rid of the corruption rather then extend it out a few more years.
      View article »
    • Tue Nov 11th 10:26 AM
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      Rating: +1 0
      Commented on:
      The End of the Economy As We Know It?
      I would say a salient point is if the monetary stewards whom created this mess should have had ANY decision making ability of this magnitude!

      I can see how I would respond as the CEO of my own business if a few employees cooked the books bankrupting the company. Would I keep these employees around AT ALL? Would it matter if they had studied historical texts of how to fix malfeasonce and incompetence? If it were your business would you? Oh, never mind that 300 M lives will now have a very diminished quality of life for the next five to ten years.

      My advice to President Bush in March was to declare the economy a national emergency and begin investing $150 B into energy then using the SBA to help underwrite loans for small businesses and lent by responsible regional banks. When trickle down isn't trickling down it's time for something new and dramatic. Other then that there should have been NO bailouts of any kind for any organization. Yes, we would have had a temporary route of the dollar and stocks would have tanked to this same level we are at today. 200 people would have been hastily ousted from Washington by the citizenship and investor confidence globally would have also returned hastily. Instead, it is quite a possibility the USA will lose it's international monetary peg status. Investor confidence indeed is destroyed on a global level and I hear my colleagues constantly talk of 'being all in cash'.

      So to restore trust at this point will be a slow, grinding and painful process for America IF we can avoid other catastrophes. Future spending on stimulus for the consumer is a nice thought, but people I talk to daily would rather have a full time job without the fear of being next in the layoff realms. Perhaps surveying the American public would be a good start to begin ASKING what the citizenship wants in these decisions.


      On Nov 11 09:39 AM axelrod608 wrote:

      > Excellent article. The questions you pose are where the "bailout"
      > should have started.
      >
      > It is crystal clear that the unlimited cheap credit bubble provided
      > us by Alan Greenspin was unsustainable. It is also clear that it
      > provided a bunch of casino gamblers masquerading as investors to
      > try all sorts of arcane and risky - and as it turns out, stupid -
      > ways to try to make obscene profits.
      >
      > The financials grew fat and the consumer purveyors grew fat. The
      > sheer volume of free money corrupted every system. My unemployed
      > student kids get credit card solicitations weekly. Unemployed folks
      > got mortgages. Are we really so stupid to think it could last ?
      >
      >
      > And now Hank and Ben are doing everything possible to keep the bubble
      > inflated. Can they not see that industries grown fat cannot survive
      > lean times ? They remind me of two guys with garden hoses "protecting"
      > their house from the oncoming forest fire.
      >
      > This will end badly. The only bottom line question is, will we throw
      > a few more $trillions into the fire. And the answer from DC is .....YES
      > !!
      View article »
    • Mon Nov 10th 23:06 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Jobs Are Obama's Job No. 1
      In general Moonbat you are correct, government creates horrible effects when it meddles in business but it always do so, either by legislating into ones own pocket or socialist movements brought about by a populace's moral decay. The government need to go out and begin making direct investments into energy. It can however, subsidize corporate lending programs like the SBA for example.


      On Nov 07 02:52 PM moonbat1775 wrote:

      > iThinkBig,
      >
      > Yes, I am all in favor of the government getting out of the way of
      > energy innovation but that is all that is required. Picking energy
      > winners or loser via subsidies is not the way to go. Germany tried
      > to go green via government regulations/subsidies and is stuck with
      > a lot of obsolete and inefficient windmills and solar cells that
      > it is still paying for.
      >
      > There is just no substitute for a free market making the best use
      > of resources and labor. To the extent that innovators are not shackled
      > is the extent to which we will prosper.
      >
      > As for government, it should stay out of the way as much as possible.
      > Let it provide for the basic survival needs of people if necessary
      > until the economy readjusts. Maybe a low cost jobs program for the
      > unemployed in the interim. There is no reason the economy should
      > not quickly readjust if the government will stop discouraging entrepreneurs
      > via taxes, inflation, and regulation. A truly honest banking system
      > would inspire so much confidence that the US would have a golden
      > age.
      >
      View article »
    • Mon Nov 10th 17:23 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Fed Balks at Releasing Toxic Waste Details
      I would agree Prudent Investor. Kleptocrocy is not a Democratic or Republican issue, it's an American issue. Like investors, the public will find those individual performers, non-performers or the corrupt to bring to or exit from office. That will take some time.
      View article »
    • Mon Nov 10th 15:54 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      AIG: Paulson's Folly
      Liquidity creates bad habits in management at all levels, private and public sector. In a free for all deflation, best for mass bankruptcies to emerge and assets sold at pennies on the dollar and liabilities shed.

      In AIG's case holding a large albatross of CDO's, all obligations should be restructured in banruptcy court.

      That of course would upset a lot of nations. But that is part of investing, you can win and you can lose. Why should the American citizenship subsidize the failures for the entire globe? How about all of those investors return there profits, those at the top of the giant pyramid scheme? No? Then all investors take there losses globally and the globe isolates those that hatched the pyramid scheme and if nothing else make sure these people never have a job in the financial sector - EVER.

      The citizenship will take matters into there own hands at some point regardless of government being retroactive in dealing with this. If the American government must pick winners and losers, perhaps it is better to start deciding that the American citizenship is in the winners camp.
      View article »
    • Mon Nov 10th 15:42 PM
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      Rating: +1 0
      Commented on:
      Expect More Bailout Borrowing; But Who Will Do the Lending?
      "So the question on my mind is: if “Thriftsville” is going to stop saving so much and start consuming more, then who will keep investing in U.S. Treasuries–i.e., lending money to “Squanderville”?"

      Why, the taxpayer of course! I don't believe we will be seeing a "New Friendlier IRS" like the late 1990's.
      View article »
    • Mon Nov 10th 15:38 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      As Russia Tests the Waters, Oil and Gas Showdown Looms
      1) Tombstone is one of my favorite moves as is the WHO's 'don't get fooled again is one of my favorite songs.

      2) Ah, geopolitics thrown into a lot of the comments. The prize of the international monetary peg is considered 'up for grabs'. This is the stuff of wars and higher oil and gas prices.

      3) The hostile regimes, put Russia Iran and YES China into that camp see Israel as a strategic barrier to some of the GCC countries that supply us. This point should weigh in on your investment strategy in regard to energy. Let's not forget the US printing effect and the devaluation of the dollar ready to assume it's ugly march and in the short term.But I do disagree with Biden we'll see widescale hostilities in the Middle East in the short term. We might see what a practice run looks like but I suspect it will be 3-4 years at this point before you see hostile regimes make an all out move to remove Israel. And when they do, they'll wind up with the Sampson Option, a very bad thing for the globe and these nations underestimating Israel's desire to survive as a nation.
      View article »
    • Mon Nov 10th 14:51 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Real Unemployment Numbers
      I am glad the comments are rated here. Your comment is at the truth of the matter, unfortunately for the American worker. But the workforce is beginning to reach a form of equilibrium you mention. US workers at $12 an hour with little or no benefits show more industrial output then Chindia/Eastern Europeans. Foreign companies have also taken notice and building industrial plants here. Unionization is not protection it once was. The American citizens has two simealtanous challenges:

      1) Keeping it's government honest
      2) Finding ways to pay the bills and a heavy debt load

      Both challenges require lengthy days of research and painful but necessary choices. This article mentions healthcare jobs which increased. Well duh, what do you think Boomers are going to spend money on, a bigger house? Travel overseas? More trinkets from decades of consumer spending to clutter there homes with? Healthcare and the promise that it is free or low cost to all has gotten out of control from corporate beurocracy and supply and demand. It will be reformed but I do not expect the $2 T number behind it to shrink, but grow from here as Boomers retire. Now government jobs create wasteful central planners whose job it is to create more wasteful central planning. The beurocrats will lose there jobs last, first will come Fed, State and Local services that support the population.


      On Nov 08 10:33 AM notmuchhope wrote:

      > I really don't see this trend changing until we reach a level where
      > American workers will be paid the same as workers in India, China,
      > and the rest of the world. Employment, much like water, will try
      > to seek a level state. In a global economy this will not happen until
      > American worker wages fall and wages in the other countries rise
      > to be approximately the same level.
      > Companies will continue to offshore American jobs where they can
      > get away with it in an effort to maximize profit while minimizing
      > costs. This is what business is supposed to do. While this is painful
      > for American workers, I'm not sure you can fault the company logic.
      > Besides, if you can raise the wages in places like China and India,
      > and then con them into believing they NEED the junk you are producing
      > (as they have done in this country), you will have a much larger
      > population buying your product and thus increasing your sales.<br/>We
      > have all contributed to this trend as well. How many of us would
      > be willing to buy a more expensive American made product when we
      > can get the equivalent product made in China for half the price?
      > Not many.
      > Manufacturing jobs are only the first leg of the new world order.
      > As the masses in other countries become more educated, this pattern
      > will extend to other types of jobs as well.
      > Meanwhile, the rich will get richer, and the middle class will get
      > poorer. Welcome to the global economy.
      View article »
    • Mon Nov 10th 12:43 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Tumbles to 81-Month Low
      "After inflation, is it deflation before hyperinflation? Look forward to postings on inflation, deflation and hyperinflation!"

      Just pick some forecast dates in years or quarters.
      Inflation peak = 2008 and over
      Deflation = Q3&Q4 2008 - 2009
      Hyperinflation 2010-2011

      Geopolitics and energy is a real wild card at this point. My belief is that we'll see Netanyahu reelected in Israel but a surprise will be that there is a peace deal that lasts 3-4 years until some larger hostilities break out. My guesses/assumptions.
      View article »