Aly-Khan Satchu

http://www.rich.co.ke
Total Rating:
0 / 0

15 Comments

    • Mon Oct 13th 06:16 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      All Eyes on the U.S. Dollar
      Good Grief.

      Very bright eyed and bushy tailed? I have tended to find that Patriotism whilst a laudable emotion, is entirely useless when it comes to investing.

      The $ rally has ended this morning as the United States deploys the Zimbabwe monetary strategy which is to print notes and hyperinflate.

      The US Government has had to intervene because the Global Free markets are not prepared to pony up any more risk capital for those who have so patently diplayed an ability to lose it.

      The response is correct but lets not kid ourselves that it is the best response in a truly abject position.Transferring as yet unquantifiable losses from a defunct Banking Sector to the Taxpayer is not an act of muscularity, I am afraid. Its a last resort.

      Aly-Khan Satchu
      rich.co.ke
      View article »
    • Fri Aug 29th 02:02 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Gustav and the Oil Volatility Index
      IEA have tried to cap the price but its effect has been fleeting and confirms that Oil has based out now. Putin has the oil market by the proverbial cohones and I refer you to the following;\

      Russia may cut off oil flow to the West
      www.telegraph.co.uk/mo...

      It seems sensible to be long now.

      regards
      Aly-Khan Satchu
      rich.co.ke
      View article »
    • Mon Aug 11th 05:51 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Contrarian Trading Tips: Gold, the Dollar, Energy and Financials
      Nearly every commentary I have read today is suggesting the same strategy so perhaps the real contrarian would buy the $ and sell Gold and Energy.
      Aly-Khan Satchu
      rich.co.ke
      View article »
    • Wed Jul 30th 00:56 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is the Dollar Rallying on Realigned Expectations?
      The dollar is rallying because nearly all the bad news is in the price. The bad news is not in the price elsewhere. I think this rally will gain real traction and that the ascendancy of Barrack Obama will completely change the way that International Investors look at the US. The US Real Estate market has already adjusted with a vengeance, the others [especially in Europe] are still playing at the edges. I like 1 year calls 1.40 strike versus Euro.

      Aly-Khan Satchu
      rich.co.ke
      View article »
    • Wed Jul 9th 05:35 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is It Time to Bet Against Oil?
      Oil is the most accurate barometer of Geopolitical risk, especially in the Middle East. Sabre rattling by the Israelis first and now the Iranians will keep the market on the boil until Bush and Cheney exit the White House. I would err on the side of buying PUTS [1 year expiry] on a 'black swan' event that drives us upto the $170.00 area, if that happens.

      Aly-Khan Satchu
      rich.co.ke
      View article »
    • Wed Jun 25th 06:28 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Oil Price Implications of a Strike on Iran
      I wrote this Friday.

      US says Israel exercise seemed directed at Iran: report
      afp.google.com/article...

      US officials say a major military exercise carried out by Israel
      earlier this month seemed to be a practice for any potential strike
      against Iran's nuclear facilities, US media reported Friday.

      More than 100 Israeli F-16 and F-15 fighter jets took part in
      maneuvers over the eastern Mediterranean and Greece in the first week
      of June to gear the military for long-range strikes and demonstrate
      Israel's serious concern over Iran's nuclear ambitions, the New York
      Times cited US officials as saying.

      A Pentagon official briefed on the exercise said a goal of the
      practice flights was to send a message that the Jewish state was
      prepared to act militarily if diplomatic efforts failed to halt
      Tehran's production of bomb-grade uranium.

      "They wanted us to know, they wanted the Europeans to know, and they
      wanted the Iranians to know," the Pentagon official was quoted as
      saying.

      "There's a lot of signaling going on at different levels."

      Conclusions

      This is lifting crude prices higher. It is curious that it was nearly
      30 years ago that the Ayatollah was swept into power. I remember
      watching the revolution unfold on the TV. I had gone to study at
      Westminster School that very same year. The catalyst for the
      revolution was best captured by
      www.randomhouse.com/ac...
      The Ayatollah was in France and as the Shah become more repressive,
      every Friday he would send a tape which would be played in the
      Mosques. The Shah began to feel very threatened especially when
      Worshippers left the mosque of a Friday and one Friday, he sent the
      hated Savak into the Mosques. The next Friday he was gone. The tape
      said,
      'He is an Infidel, he does not respect the holiest of places.'
      The Peacock throne fell and on such seemingly trifling mistakes, Regimes fall.

      The Iranian version of Shia Islam is deeply rooted in the idea of
      Martydom and sacrifice. Millions of Iranians went to their deaths
      against Saddam. The West still sees Iran through the Pahlavi prism,
      because so many of them are in LA.

      My point is this. It might make great TV lobbing a few well directed
      missiles at the Iranians and my concern is that a President who sees
      so much in a stark black and white, good and evil prism, nearing the
      end of his tenure, it might seem a great exit option. It really might.
      This would not be taken lying down by the Iranians and I think they
      could really hold our feet to the fire in Iraq.

      How Iran would retaliate if it comes to war
      www.csmonitor.com/2008...

      "If you attack Iran you are unleashing a firestorm of reaction
      internally that will only strengthen revolutionary forces, and
      externally in the region," says Ranstorp. "It's a nightmare scenario
      for any contingency planner, and I think you really enter the twilight
      zone if you strike Iran."

      So what does such a scenario do to the Crude market? It creates a
      potential super spike. How to exploit this? ONE TOUCH.

      Aly-Khan Satchu
      rich.co.ke
      View article »
    • Mon Jun 16th 02:52 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Go To Africa, Young Investor
      The African renaissance started some years ago. The clearest evidence of this is given by the returns that have been generated in SSA post 2002. Kenya has returned [and this replicated across the entire Continent] near enough 600% in $ terms. Crude Oil has returned 697% from trough to peak! Clearly, this is something that cannot be ignored.

      Some of the comments above also touch on what I call the 'Bob Geldof Live Aid discount'. For many, Africa will always be the Dark Continent. This too is an opportunity. When I look at something, I dont have 1000s of MBA graduates doing the same. I consider that an advantage. This discount is narrowing.

      The big picture is that Africa is undergoing a late stage Industrial revolution. In the 21st century, it can all happen in a very short space of time, as if it were on 'steroids'. Businesses are relatively straight forward and not over complexified with assets that no Management or employee understands. The greatest opportunity lies in finding businesses that are creating scale out of previously fragmented markets.

      Its a no brainer.
      Aly-Khan Satchu
      rich.co.ke
      View article »
    • Thu Jun 12th 01:08 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      US Dollar: 5 Reasons It Will Not Hit a New Low
      If I might throw in my cents worth. I tend to agree with the Author. I know Bernanke's nickname was 'Helicopter Bernanke'; he proposed a theory that in intractable recessions, monetary policy would be helped by throwing money from the sky!

      Having said that, the US real curve is now steepening. This will add some spine to the $. Short term rates currently are subsidising the Banks thats for sure but long term rates are taking cognisance of the more hawkish rhetoric.

      Sentiment [as witnessed by the other comments] is so utterly negative that purely on that basis, the elastic is stretched way too far.

      Aly-Khan Satchu
      rich.co.ke
      View article »
    • Thu Jun 5th 05:10 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Oil ETFs: What if the Dollar Strengthens?
      It is highly unusual for The Fed to comment on the $ and I think it reflects a degree of concern that $ shorters need to take notice of.
      Paul Volcker also recently broke with form to say that there was a $ crisis. So I feel that the $ can rally substantially from here. In that context, it would be a little foolhardy to stand in front of what might very well become a freight train in the Crude markets.

      This is not the time to be limit long Crude.

      Aly-Khan Satchu
      rich.co.ke
      View article »
    • Thu May 22nd 06:20 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Weekly Market Commentary: May 19th - May 23rd
      Matthew,

      Very enlightening. I have a strong conviction about the softs and was keen to make a leveraged investment via Options. From your piece, its clear that you trade them. Is there a liquid market for options two years out in the softs? Is this the way you would reccommend the play, out of the money calls or are there other structures you can reccommend?

      Aly-Khan Satchu
      rich.co.ke
      View article »
    • Mon May 19th 02:28 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      2008 Country Returns
      Thanks.

      Visually this is the equivalent of being smacked in the face. There is a new world out there a la Columbus when he found America. The rewards for the Intrepid Investor are in the Frontier markets.

      Aly-Khan Satchu
      rich.co.ke
      View article »
    • Tue Apr 29th 02:48 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Investing in Non-U.S. Stock Markets
      Dear Richard,

      Thanks for the compliment. It made my morning.

      I came home three years ago, having been in London for many years. What has really struck me in Kenya is the scale of the domestic shareholder base. It is widely expected to be 2m at the end of our current and biggest IPO Safaricom. This is an extraordinary outcome and actually a phenomenon. Today, Nigeria has 6 banks in the top 100 in the world. I really expect the African landscape to be something completely different in a very short space of time. Extraordinary things are happening and its all being compressed into a very few years.

      Ex South Africa, I feel SSA is the last frontier. It was a previously very fragmented Continent with small pocket sized markets. The Mobile phone was the catalyst that triggered the aggregation of these small units into scale.

      Lot of folk talk of Commodities etc but the next sharp trigger is coming from the Continent being plugged in to the global superhighway.

      There might very well be a great arbitrage in identifying those markets that are set to get into these various new indices.



      Take care
      Aly-Khan Satchu
      rich.co.ke
      View article »
    • Mon Apr 28th 10:27 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Investing in Non-U.S. Stock Markets
      Dear Richard,

      What is your definition of tradeable stock markets in relation to Africa and particularly in SSA?

      There is a whole lot going on which appears not to be captured by your map?

      Aly-Khan Satchu
      rich.co.ke
      View article »
    • Mon Apr 28th 07:54 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is Anyone Benefiting From Global Inflation?
      Sir,

      You say; Although the general price level is rising, the truth is that relative prices have experienced an imbalance, with commodities outpacing the rise of other sectors.

      Surely, this entirely depends on your starting point. If you care to look on a longer term basis, many Commodities sufferred from a long period of price underperformance. This started to correct in 2002-2003 with the Oil and Metals complex. The Softs have only recently started to perform and I agree we have passed the tipping point in this regard. We are at the start of something and not even anywhere near the middle.

      Clearly, the Beneficiaries are those who are long of resources. The Natural longs faced a one sided demand structure [The West] and the rapid arrival of China and India brought competition to that demand equation. It seems to me to be as basic as that.

      Hence one could argue that Consumers [and the biggest Consumers are in the West] have paid an Alice in Wonderland price for their consumption. We are now reverting to a fairer price structure.

      Our 'Goldilocks' economic assumptions were just that. They were too US and Euro centric.

      The free ride is over. Investors have already taken note.

      Aly-Khan Satchu
      rich.co.ke
      View article »
    • Fri Apr 4th 02:11 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      MSCI Frontier Markets Index Leaves Emerging Markets In the Dust
      Its a perfect storm for Frontier markets and especially SSA Equities. As an asset class, Folk tend see the markets through a Bob Geldof Live Aid prism and this lack of perception means there is enormous value. The African continent is growing at its fastest rate since most Countries got their Independence. In Kenya, the State replayed Thatcherism. They started selling shares in what were previously mismanaged and bloated Government Parastatals, for example. These companies became profitable and Investors have reaped a very handsome reward. The State has a win win, instead of writing subsidy cheques, The Exchequer is receiving dividend cheques. The swing effect is material. Investors have found a taste for the Stock Market. Domestic demand did not exist before. In Kenya, we are launching our biggest IPO [Safaricom Mobile phone company] in our history. A million new shareholders are likely to enter the market. These are not small things. These markets are in a sweet spot.

      Aly-Khan Satchu
      rich.co.ke
      View article »
Loading...
Symbols:
Authors:
Quick Links:
Contribute an Article Become a Seeking Alpha Contributor

Transcripts

More Transcripts»