Coelacanth

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    • Wed Oct 1st 09:49 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Historic Strength for the Dollar
      Excellent work Bespoke.....hope you guys did well this morning getting long dollars vs. EUR, Cable & AUD.
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    • Thu Sep 11th 13:43 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Sell the U.S. Dollar into Strength
      Philman & Dave,

      I don't day trade....when I enter the market it's typically anywhere from a couple of weeks to a couple of months so I can take advantage of geo-political & macro-economic trends.

      Can't believe I'm getting caught up in this conversation but, no guys, it's not lost on me that our beloved stars & stripes has systemic financial structural problems that, if not dealth with, will weigh on our currency long-term. That said I'm not an "extreme doom & gloomer" and believe Warren Buffet when he says "Don't bet against America long-term".

      Like Fabian Hug says....."mess for mess, I prefer America's"

      Be well gentleman.
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    • Thu Sep 11th 11:08 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Sell the U.S. Dollar into Strength
      Paul & Pete,

      I could easily refute most if not all of what Mr. James Conrad "Phd" (that still cracks me up....I love typing that. LOL) says.

      If you look at some of my past comments, you'll see I've expanded on my opinions on several occasions and have been spot on in many cases. That I haven't done that here only means I've been too busy trading. It's revealing that didn't occur to either of you

      It's very instructive for someone like me to read what the erstwhile James Conrad Phd has to say week after week.....and then see the markets do the exact opposite of what he says they'll do....week after week.

      I'm actually quite grateful.....he's currently one of my best contrarian indicators. I truly hope he continues posting for a while.


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    • Thu Sep 11th 06:48 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Sell the U.S. Dollar into Strength
      I love it when I find posters (one's who have Phd at the end of their names are an extra bonus) that I can use as contrarain indicators when I trade. LOL.

      By doing the exact opposite of what you're saying I've profited by buying dollars on dips and selling almost everything else. Do we have systemic structural financial problems that if not fixed will weigh on the dollar long term if not fixed? Sure.

      With Gold bugs currently puking their guts out seeing their beloved ore hovering around $750.00 an oz. after seeing it above $1000.00 an oz. only 7 months ago, it's not surprising Mr. Conrad "Phd" (who has an "exclusive" newletter one is only privvy to if their recommened to him....LOL) would be feeling some frustration.

      That you would minimize the problems in the U.K. & Europe makes it painfully clear you don't trade currencies and are simply making a sojourn in to a subject matter you know less about than you think.
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    • Mon Sep 8th 13:30 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Great Dollar Pump of 2008: A Doomed Central Bank Intervention
      9/7 Strategy:

      EUR/USD: Buy dollars in to weakness.

      GBP/USD: Sell Cable in to strength.

      Mission Accomplished.
      View article »
    • Fri Sep 5th 01:58 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Will August Non-Farm Payrolls Top 100K?
      Strategy: If NFP come in worse then consensus buy dollars in to weakness and sell Cable in to strengh.
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    • Wed Sep 3rd 20:24 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      U.S. Dollar Golden Cross
      Too funny....it's always painfully obvious me when people who don't trade in currencies comment on these threads.

      Good work Bespoke Investments! Your technical indicator is a positive sign. After seeing many candlestick "hammers" & "shooting stars" on USD daily charts last night it wouldn't surprise me to see an interim dollar correction coming. After this week I'll probably step aside a few days as nothing would make me happier than getting long dollars in to temporary weakness.

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    • Tue Sep 2nd 22:27 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Tuesday's Currencies Wrap: Dollar Strengthens
      The yen is an interesting case.

      Prime Minister Fukuda surprised everyone by stepping down yesterday. One of his possible successors,Taro Aso, isn't a reformer but rather thought of as someone who might take Japan back to it's big state spending ways.

      On the surface this would appear to be hugely yen negative. In the short to medium term I have to weigh that against how much worse off some other majors are. In particular I favor yen over euro.
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    • Thu Aug 28th 14:10 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Axel Weber Rescues the Euro
      I agree the euro may see some upward strength towards the 1.48 -1.49 handles just because the move down is looking a little extended.

      That said, I think people are dreaming if they think the ECB is going to hike rates again. The EU has made no bones about their desire to see a weaker euro to help their exporters. That said, central bankers don't like to see their currencies fall in to death spirals (like USD earlier this year) and I suspect Papademos's jawboning the other day was more an attempt to make sure the depreciation of the euro is more orderly rather than sudden. It's also telling he got on the wires just after German CPI showed clear inflation easing in August.

      Another ominous sign is the German unemployment read for August ballooned way above consensus (-10,000 consensus vs. -40,000.00 actual).

      The divergence between ECB rhetoric and economic reality on the ground is widening.


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    • Wed Aug 27th 13:57 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Will the European Central Bank Cut Rates - It’s Anybody's Guess
      The ECB's Papademos got on the wires this morning and said they may have to raise rates if growth picks up or to quell a "wage price spiral". He's a known hawk and it's hard for me to imagine many currency traders (myself included) out there still believe the ECB will raise rates.

      At the same time Papademos sounded the cauldron on inflation again this morning....German August reads for CPI came in well below consensus....suggestin... lower oil prices are easing some inflationary pressures. My take is that as growth continues to falter in the euro-zone and inflationary pressure continue to show evidence of easing.....the cacaphony of calls to lower rates from EU business leaders, politicians and consumers will only get louder.

      It won't surprise me at all to see the ECB do an about face in the 1st two qtrs. of 09' and start cutting rates.
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    • Tue Aug 19th 01:47 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Equity Pain Trade
      Yeah.....and aside from a detour or two the pain trade will continue for a while.

      Who is the last hold out? The BOE intimated cuts may come even before inflation numbers show easing. Stevens came out and pretty much said cuts will come sooner rather than later and my beloved Stars & Strips is on hold for the near future.

      Where will growth come from then? Wait! The EU is ever vigilant about inflation. I'll put my money there!



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    • Sat Aug 16th 14:16 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Market Predictions: 'Crazy' About the Dollar
      Hey Paul,

      You bring up some great points.

      I could be mistaken but I thought the increase in minimum wage was going to get phased in over time. Plausibly this could mitigate wage pressures in the near term keeping us out of a wage-price spiral situation.

      I agree with you about the auction rate securities mess. Pretty daunting. I think most companies are working hard to re-imburse investors though and it appears the Fed is going to keep lending to commercial banks for some time to come.

      My sense about the negative effect a strengthening USD would have on American exports is would have to appreciate much, much further for that effect to be truly palpable. The flip side is a stronger dollar will help to tamp down domestic inflation and gives Americans more purchasing power. We'll see.
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    • Sat Aug 16th 10:44 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Market Predictions: 'Crazy' About the Dollar
      MarkMedayski,

      So the truth is revealed.....you're a Jew hater and your opinions read like some hack partisan blogger.
      View article »
    • Fri Aug 15th 18:42 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Market Predictions: 'Crazy' About the Dollar
      MarkMedayski,

      Interesting take. So you basically want euro to go 1.70 thereby choking off and killing euro-zone exports even more so than is happening now? Great idea.

      Interest rates to 10%? Too funny. While the ECB will be lowering rates in 09' - 10'.....ours will be rasing them.....making America's assets more attractive than the euro-zones.

      Euro-zone unions aren't doing you any favors either. Because you're so unionized compared to us "stupid Americans" many euro-zone employees have already won outsized wage increases. Betcha can't guess how euro-zone companies are going to compensate for higher unit labor costs. Can you say wage-price spiral?

      EU Industrial production, manufacturing, consumer sentiment, consumer spending, business confidence....all falling off in dramatic fashion.

      The EU is about to find out if the twelve gold stars on their flag are in deed representative of unity and perfection.
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    • Fri Aug 15th 17:24 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Market Predictions: 'Crazy' About the Dollar
      Excellent piece Louis....and yes I agree the euro has much longer slide to go. Siesmic shifts don't occur like this all the time and investors would do well to take advantage of what's happening now.

      It was interesting this week to see euro-zone, French, Italian & German GDP growth for the 2nd qtr. were all negative. Despite Trichet's hawkish stance I suspect euro-zone slowing will become more and more pronounced in the coming weeks and months The cacophony of calls to lower rates will only get louder and louder.

      The BOE's quarterly inflation report this week was striking in how dovish it seemingly was....almost hinting rate cuts may come even before CPI, PPI and import/export input indicators show signs of slowing. The idea being that as long as it was evident that inflation had peaked or was cresting....rate cuts would happen sooner rather than later.

      My suspicion is the same may happen in euro-land and that markets haven't priced in this possibility.


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