Troutbum

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    • Thu Sep 25th 10:25 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      How to Spend $700B and Actually Solve the Problem
      Look folks- The gov't makes money here; Mark-to-Market is part of the problem- value longterm assests on a shortterm fluctuating basis is wrong. This will eventually be corrected.

      But right now the gov't is going to pick or "real" assest that; becuase they can hold and have a longer term horizon- WILL re-flate and appreciate.

      This whole issue at the moment is about crisis of confidence not the $$$$$ - and the irresponsible polititicians who do not understand this are dealing with more than fire - they are dealing with "china syndrom" financial meltdown -

      That is why the deal will get done with appropriate "CEO pay" window dressing and LONG XLF is the right position to be in.


      On Sep 25 10:18 AM TheBookkeepe r wrote:

      > This makes sense, and it approaches the solution used in the Great
      > Depression, when commercial banks were formed. They could only lend
      > county-wide. Banks became a service the citizenry that were restricted
      > from gambling with the citizen's money that was on deposit..
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    • Thu Sep 18th 21:19 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Playing for a Bounce?
      I'm on board; good to see all the naysayers here another sign of irrational panic and capitulation. Anyone who thinks 30% moves in Goldamn or Morgan are justified do not have a clue.

      Just how far do you think governments (all governments) will let this panic go?

      Re: the short selling- layoff the guy. Naked Short selling has not been illegal- coupled with the no uptick rule has lead to the markets moving too fast...well beyond fundamentals and the abiliyt of institutions to react.

      So bottom line; once governments step in, slow down the action, bring a little rationality and stability back...money will flow back in and there will be an updraft...significant updraft as we are way oversold.

      I'm not talking raging bull only more than a dead cat bounce...and I am in for the ride baby.
      View article »
    • Thu Apr 24th 06:15 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Impending Mortgage Crisis
      Another Chicken Little; There is litte evidence that the subprime crisis has been nothing more than a banking/balance sheet paper excercise. "OH REALLY- WHAT ABOUT BEAR STEARN...QUITE A WORKOUT" you say. Bottom line is that bear stearns did not need to fail it was allowed to fail. AND...wait to you experience the balance sheet WRITE -UPs from all of the overshot bad loan provisions. Yes alot of paper value has gone up in smoke...but with the exception of a couple of hot market such as FLA and VEGAS the home default/home value deflation crisis is simply not occuring. Markets are adjusting, sales are happening, people are renting v. purchasing, banks can refi., they are not motivated sellers - smart lenders want people to stay in the homes...and while I'm ranting I refinance twice over the past 5 years with both an ARM and a fixed...the lecture I had to recieve when closing on the ARM about the adjustments, risk to my home ownership, etc...let no-one say that lenders were unscrupulous (for the most part-there are always shady operators) the risks of all ARM options were clearly spelled out to mortgagees...
      View article »
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