freefall51

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  • Garmin Downgraded as Cell Phones Get GPS
    Reminds me that Transocean was on the conviction buy list when the price was an all time high. Wonder if the cellphones can emulate the voice of the nice lady that sits inside the Garmin box.
    Jan 06 22:16 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Garmin Downgraded as Cell Phones Get GPS
    Reminds me that Transocean was on the conviction buy list when the price was an all time high. Wonder if the cellphones can emulate the voice of the nice lady that sits inside the Garmin box.
    Jan 06 22:16 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Garmin Downgraded as Cell Phones Get GPS
    Reminds me that Transocean was on the conviction buy list when the price was an all time high. Wonder if the cellphones can emulate the voice of the nice lady that sits inside the Garmin box.
    Jan 06 22:16 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The Ghost of Crude Oil Futures (Part 2/2)
    The best way to bring the oil price down is to buy USO which I did on Friday.
    Jan 04 12:07 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • India Unraveling: Stay Short Emerging Markets
    Rakesh,

    keep going. I like your articles.

    BTW, I think the latest mini-bull is just based on a temporary lack of sellers after the recent tax loss sell-off and due to the fact that the indices hit a major uptrending support line. The market tries to sneak in an upswing on low volume. This is not logical to me given the overall conditions but the market proves me typically wrong.
    Jan 03 22:41 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • S&P's Best and Worst of 2008
    I am absolutely puzzled by the price performance of AZO (Autozone);
    in my view the financial picture is absolutely over-leveraged in a time where credit availability is restrained; latest credit rating is BBB;

    From the Aug 08 numbers I take Debt/ Equity is 22/1; AZO are buying back shares on credit and manage to lower the equity per share from $ 6 to $ 3.60 in a year. The incomplete numbers for the last quarter ending Nov. hint an equity of only $ 1/share and the share price sits at $ 141 and a triple top high. What kind of improvement can one reasonably expect form here? I think AZO is an excellent short candidate.

    Jan 03 22:01 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The Riskiness of Bonds
    Those investment grade corporate bonds can turn on a dime.
    Look at LyondellBasell, one of the world’s largest companies for plastics, chemicals, and fuels.
    Over extended debt for the merger $12.7 B, cannot be served in economical downturn.
    Rating downgrade by S&P and Moodys earlier in Dec to selective default. Then press release, company considers filing for Chapter 11 on Dec 31, 08.
    Lyondell bonds sell now for 11.5 c on the dollar. It costs $ 8.5 M to insure a $10 M loan over the next years. BAM!
    Here is an idea. Other than going for high yield bonds, screen companies for high debt/ equity and short the hell out of them.
    Jan 03 10:30 am |Rating: +1 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Analysts Don't Know Squat
    The S&P 500 has not escaped the downtrend channel yet that was established about a year ago. The recent bull is getting very weak. Next week is make or brake, since the index may have a chance to hit the upper resistance line of the channel. My guess is brake with a selloff after the New Year, when redemptions set in again (Madoff effect if nothing else). Next stop may be 700 or lower if and when the support line of the channel is hit again. Time frame Feb- March.
    Dec 26 23:12 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Peter Schiff: Outlook for the Gold Market
    If Mr Schiff had shorted gold from it s high other than owning it he would have 25 % more and not 25 % less.
    Dec 24 00:07 am |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Illogical Justifications for Owning U.S. Treasuries
    You got to make sure that you have the Fed on your side or you will be hurt.

    This boom in LT bonds will be unsustainable over time and it will be a fun thing to play. But being wrong and shorting too early feels the same. I would wait for a decisive break in the uptrend of the bonds before committing.
    Dec 21 19:08 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The Madoff Affair: Were His Sons Actually Responsible?
    The theory sound reaonably to me. The old guy will do lot less jailtime than his two sons together. And what loving father would not stand up for his mischievous offsprings.
    Dec 18 08:54 am |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Changing My Stance on the Dollar
    A lot of money was flowing into TBT yesterday morning trending up slightly and out of TLT. TLT seems to trade inversely to $SPX at his time. If $SPX tops out TLT would bottom and go higher from there causing another drop for TBT.

    What worries me is the threat that the Feds may buy up their own longterm treasuries to keep the interest down and prices up. They are reckless enough to do that.

    The bearish $ bet UDN seems to be a better deal at the moment. You have the Feds on your side.
    Dec 18 08:41 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Goldman Sachs: Perils in the Fine Print
    Rakesh,

    I noted recently that you came up with some insightful blogs. I added you to my watch list.

    Thanks.
    Dec 17 17:26 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Preview from Europe: Market Rally Was Running on Empty
    I got to underline what U 316752 said about American cars.

    Being a native German I drove quite a few European cars including BMW, Mercedes, VW with every mainenance bill touching 1000- 2000 DM, say $ 500 - 1000 a shot. And that was 10 years ago.

    I then had a Buick (4 x oil change for $25, filters and a rubber belt replacement over 30,000 mi) and an Explorer for 10 years. I never had more robust and inexpensive cars to maintain. Yes, they use more gas but look at the totality of the bills. It would not be good if Ford or its peer companies disappear. But they got to shape up.
    Dec 11 00:22 am |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Goldman Sachs as an Internet Bank? Pleeease!
    Why are you not short GS after all?
    Dec 09 19:45 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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