junkyarddog

32 Comments

    • Options Trader: Wednesday Outlook [view article]
      This is 'fan mail'.

      Phil, another amazing commentary with fundamentals right on!

      I've been reading your articles almost every day this year, specially when the craziness on commodities (oil) spiked. Your comments have been a breath of fresh air, for you dared to be unique and challenged every one saying that "fundamentals&quo... weren't there. You were proved right so far, although you draw angry criticisms from some.

      I just CAN'T BELIEVE we're going to the same cycle again with oil pushing at $116 then $130 (according to you). This "joke" will costs us billions and everyone is already hurting financially (well, mostly everyone) with these high oil prices.

      Thanks for posting your comments everyday, free of charge. I'll be reading them to keep my sanity on.

      Aug 20 10:08 AM
    • Options Trader: Wednesday Outlook [view article]
      Phil, it's Interesting your prediction that oil will go back up to $130. What is your reasoning behind this since you were the first one to advocate it was a bubble? Is there another bubble being formed on oil / commodities?
      Aug 13 11:07 AM
    • Where Are Precious Metals Heading? [view article]
      Gross Profits: Maybe just as good as your "useless" comment.

      The gold bugs see the commodity go over $1,500 in one year and anyone who dares a contrarian position is the subject of their wrath. Jim Sinclair (JSMineset.com) will even bet $1 million dollars with you, just in case you haven't heard their bullish predictions loud enough.

      I own gold stocks myself as a hedge, but I can understand the article's argument that 2/3 of gold commodity demand is down 55% and that "may" put downward pressure on the price (sorry gold freaks, just a different view. Wrong, perhaps, but just a view).

      Good article.       Jul 25 03:18 PM
    • Is the Eurozone Heading Off a Cliff? [view article]
      Very interesting observations. I wonder if the author (Claus) feels all of this spells the end of the Euro.

      Can Spain / Italy / France cope with a strong(er) Euro?       Jul 25 12:17 PM
    • Options Trader: Tuesday Outlook [view article]
      I took a week of vacation and missed Da Phil's view on the economy. He doesn't have a crystal ball and he can't predict the future. So, he may make some mistakes on some calls, but I tell you... Phil's fundamentals are right on.

      I really laughed when oil dropped so much last week! Reason? No one seemed to have believed Phil: the world simply can't support (afford) oil at >140 bucks. Inflation will eventually take us there, but right now it's pure speculation. Those who criticize Phil do me a favor: read his past articles on oil, just for starters.

      Phil is human too (I think) and he's not perfect, so of course he ought to be wrong on a few things. One thing he's wrong on is to believe that this mess is all this administration's fault, although the Dems are the ones controlling Congress. Bush sucks, of course, but so do the Dems. Moreover, Dems == Republicans. The sooner people realize that, the sooner we'll move forward as a Nation with an alternative party, one who doesn't have any deals with the devil.

      PS: devil == oil companies, GS, JP Morgan, LEH, IMF, and others. Utopia, I know.


      Jul 22 03:48 PM
    • Oil Price: $100 Before $150 - But $200 Before $50 [view article]
      "You won't see $100 oil ever again."

      You've been manipulated and this kind of acceptance and hopelessness is exactly what our leaders want. Increase the margin requirements at NYMEX from 5% to 30% or more and you'll see oil back at $100 to $120 a barrel.       Jul 11 09:40 AM
    • Options Trader: Wednesday Outlook [view article]
      Phil, I always enjoy your articles. In my opinion you're one of the best market analysts in today's world, and I read a lot.

      I think you're partially right in your analysis above. What is missing? The democrats. As if they're not part of the same corruption scheme, as if they want the price of oil to come down, to withdraw our troops from Iraq, and as if they're immune to the oil cartel lobbying.

      I'd challenge anyone to come up with one SIGNIFICANT difference between republicans and democrats. One. And I will take back everything I said.       Jul 09 11:18 AM
    • The U.S. Dollar: A Six Month Outlook [view article]
      Which one you prefer:

      a) have a job WITH inflation
      b) be unemployed with ZERO or low inflation

      The world is not as black and white as my 2 choices above, but let's simplify things for the sake of argument. I'd prefer "a", as in 'b" I won't buy oil...sure... but I won't be paying my mortgage either.

      One can pump up all he wants ECB, but what good is a strong EURO under a collapsing or recessionary economy? The "independence&quo... the author mentions above from central banks and goverment might be good on paper, but how effective is to have a monetary policy APART from a fiscal policy?

      Many analysts argue that the EURO will flop simply because of this reasons. Of course, you and I know analysts are never wrong... but in this case the contrarian point ought to be at least thought provoking. Time will tell.
      Jul 03 02:45 PM
    • Options Trader: Thursday Outlook [view article]
      who: It's not only about commodities or automobiles. I was thinking more in terms of services, which get cheaper for America to sell out there. The US is having record exports and I'm not sure if it's a good thing to stop this trend.

      Europe will hold off inflation (so they hope) but at what cost? Their already slow economy will be even slower. Then their unemployment will rise and they'll be risking an even steeper recession.

      It's a tough choice, but personally, choosing between a) having a job with inflation or b) be unemployed with no inflation, I prefer having a job ("a").

      I know economic purists, especially the gold bugs, think the job of the Fed ought to be only to protect the dollar, making it strong. Question: what good is a strong dollar in the middle of a depression?The Fed also needs to foster economic development and this balance is tough. I'll be the only American out there saying the absolutely outrageous, I even risk being lynched: given the circumstances I believe Barnanke is doing a good job. There, I said it. :-o

      Jul 03 01:59 PM
    • Options Trader: Thursday Outlook [view article]
      Phil, I read your articles daily, with great interest. Reading what you have to say is the information I look forward most each day.

      Allow me to take a "contrarian" view: the weak dollar being good for the US economy. The weak Japanese yen allowed Honda, who only manufactured motorcycles until 1968, to eat alive (destroy!) Detroit in the 70's and beyond. Why? They sold their cheap piece of junk Japanse cars and collected the sales in dollars, strong at that time.

      A weak dollar boosts US exports and creates opportunities. Low interest rates keep things moving. The worst we can do now is slow even further our economy with higher interest rates AND increase unemployment. If people don't have jobs, yes, they won't buy oil, but... they won't pay for their mortgages either.

      Now, ECB raised rates. What do you believe is going to happen? Stronger Euro, weaker dollar! Whose products then become more competitive in the market? America's.

      A weak dollar raises the oil price - so they say -- but let's face it: fundamentals are not playing a role here. The dollar can go 1.30 to the Euro and the oil barrel price will stil increase. So, forget fundamentals there.

      Thanks again for you incredible articles every day. You definitely make your readers think!
      Jul 03 10:21 AM
    • Myth and Meaning in the Great Oil Game [view article]
      So much academia, so little information. I guess this "Russian" adage still holds true: those who can do, those who can't teach.

      The comments above are spot on; they're better than the article!       Jul 03 10:09 AM
    • IEA's Oil Market Outlook: Off the Mark [view article]
      Very educational article, thanks!

      Truth is, NO ONE can pinpoint exactly what is going on. This whole oil business is still a bit shady. If I'm wrong, Congress would already enacted a law to arrest / sue / tax / kill whoever is responsible for such price increase (not realizing themselves Congress has quite a share of the blame).       Jul 02 10:03 AM
    • Hey, Congress, Speculators May Not Be the Bad Guys [view article]
      The author's analysis is incomplete and flawed. So many articles have already been published here (SA) that he should do his own homework. For example, what is or who are speculators?

      They are necessary to bring liquidity to the market. Once educated, no one will have a problem with that. The problem is the ridiculously low margin requirements to buy oil contracts: 5%.

      Don't get rid of the speculators, just increase the margin requirements. I can only leverage 50% with stocks, so why can't such traders do the same?

      Again, the author needs to research this topic a bit more.
      Jul 01 05:26 PM
    • Options Trader: Monday Outlook [view article]
      Call me crazy, but I think this is all by design. No, I'm not a conspiracy theorist! I simply don't believe there is too much mystery behind the scenes.

      1) Steep decline of the US dollar since 2003.
      2) Mortgage rates at 1% variable, no money down to buy a half mil house (what did you expect?) Mortgage meltdown!
      3) USA losing "market share" in the world
      4) China's meteoric rise and influence
      5) The EURO slowly taking place of the US dollar
      6) US debt: 9 trillion and still counting
      7) Lastly, war in Iraq.

      So, if you look at this picture, what is the simplest 'solution' to the US problems?

      I say, the US tells its creditors: you want US dollars, we'll give you US dollars! Inflation. Another benefit: kill the EURO. Lower the dollar and give free money (2%) to banks and help exports. Didn't the Japanese automakers do that to us in the 70's and 80's with their cheap and then piece of junk cars? The weak yen helped them. Cheap dollar helps the US in the short and medium term. Look at our trade deficit shrinking (discounting oil, minor detail...).

      Italy, France, and Spain are struggling with the strong Euro, yet ECB is talking about raising their interest rates. You bet these countries won't be happy about that and it'll hurt their ability to compete in the international markets.

      And then oil. What a better way to slown down the economy, make people forget about the war in Iraq, and help JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and the rest of the gang to recoup their money from the mortgage meltdown? What a better way to slow down China, even if momentarily? What a better way to restart drilling offshore?

      In the end, look at who benefits the most with all of this. Is it OPEC? Maybe, but I still think they're peons. Could it be more power to Congress? Didn't Rep Watts already propose nationalizing the oil companies? Doesn't the SEC & FED have more controlling power and increased jurisdiction than ever before?

      In the end, this is all my guess and it could be all crap. I simply believe there's too much "coincidence"... on all of this. It could be very well our leaders are that stupid and this chaos is random.


      Jun 30 10:02 AM
    • Time to Short Both Long-Term Bonds and Crude [view article]
      Mike K: I love your out-of-the-box thinking, and long term view. However, your assumption *MAY* be flawded because you may the taking political considerations out of the equation. Notice how many times I used the word MAY, as I really don't know it myself.

      Goldman Sachs, Lame-O Bros, JP Morgan and the rest of the gang lost their shirts in the mortgage meltdown crisis. Now they borrow cheap money from the Fed at 2% and invest in oil to recover their losses. And all of this is supported by the political leaders. My point: I don't think there's a willingness to change.

      In the long run I think you're right, but at present the political will doesn't seem to be there. Great post!       Jun 27 12:56 PM
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