mcingram1976

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  • Whose Freddie Investment Thesis Is Right?
    In my opinion, you have stumbled across what any seasoned analyst should know right now. The market is clearly overreacting on the GSE's. Even some of the most ardent critics realize that it's very likely the government will allow fannie & freddie to exist in their current form. Take for example, Freddie's bond news. The company had to pay a greater premium for it's five-year notes; but not so hefty they couldn't operate. The bigger picture stuff tends to get lost in the shuffle. What happens in the third quarter, when fannie & freddie say things aren't quite so bad? Then you will have people bailing out of short positions and piling into long ones. Real-estate sales are actually picking up in california, although prices are 35% lower; because speculators are buying up properties. This is the first sign of a recovery/bottom; but you don't get any mention in the news for the GSE's. The fed would be silly to take over FNM & FRE. It's unnecessary, let them peter out until they become profitable. If you do take them over and wipe out shareholder equity; how can you convince anyone to ever buy into a GSE ever again? I can understand how we may be entering a credit card crisis, at some point in the future. However, housing normally is less volatile. You just have some liar loans & Alt-A loans that have to get marked down on the books. It's not like the rest of their portfolio is going to go up in smoke, all 5 trillion of it.
    Aug 20 09:07 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Pfizer Continues to Fall Further
    Wow, that was a rather stinging reply to Mr. Mooney. I do not know him personally, but I would say you served him up rather nicely. It's a shame that you insist on making your arguments based on speculation over whether Pfizer will cut their dividend and a Goldman Sachs analyst, who probably doesn't fully understand Pfizer's business. I would suggest perhaps you might consider doing some actual research. I would also suggest you offer up some wisdom and insight, on the long-term growth prospects of Pfizer. Perhaps your research might reveal more useful information; such as Joe Brennan, Vanguard’s Primecap Fund’s CEO has conviction on Pfizer's growth prospects. From the funds annual report he states:

    “Although we were disappointed by the performance of Amgen and Pfizer, we remain optimistic about the healthcare sector and pharmaceuticals in particular. The major pharmaceutical companies boast above-average long-term growth prospects, as the emergence of a global middle class produces significant demand for pharmaceuticals. The companies maintain enviable balance sheets, and relative valuations for the sector are at historical lows. We also expect these companies to benefit from a dramatic increase in pharmaceuticals use by the aging baby boomer generation. People over the age of 65 are consuming an increasing amount of prescription drugs per capital, and this consumption is relatively insensitive to the economic cycle. Despite these unusually favorable prospects, large pharmaceutical stocks such as Eli Lilly and Novartis trade at market-like valuations.”

    I am quite certain the short-term prospects for the company will be dismal; but right now there is a "fire sale" going on at some of the major pharmaceutical companies. Valuations are the most attractive they have been in years. People foolish enough to read your article and believe your empty assertions; will lose a ton of money if they sell companies like the worl's largest biomedical and pharmaceutical company for penny's on the dollar. Don't believe the hype folks, people like Buffett are slowly building large positions in pharmaceuticals & managed care companies. My personal favorites are: SNY, GSK, PFE, GE (they are entering medical technology research although I would wait for a more attractive entry point at this time. As for Eli Lilly, it's an interesting company and has a fair valuation but at the numbers below you won't make as much money as you would with the companies I mentioned above.

    Eli Lilly

    Price/Book (mrq): 3.77
    Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)3: 2.89
    Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)3: 9.201
    Jun 11 19:12 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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