RLoftus52876@yahoo.com

Total Rating:
0 / 0

19 Comments

    • Sat Sep 6th 15:28 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Unconventional Energy Still Attractive - UBS
      I believe there's a big future in natural gas. What I've been waiting or, and I'm so far unaware of is a strong competitor in the methane capture market. We put enormous amounts of methane into the atmosphere and eventually a player will come to market with a series of cost-effective and readily scalable methane capture devices for municipal sewer and waste-disposal applications and when that happens that company is going to skyrocket almost as fast as Google.
      View article »
    • Thu Aug 28th 07:39 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      June Case-Shiller Housing Numbers
      I'm still convinced housing has much farther to fall. Let us not forget that one of the major problems behind the real estate boom was that so many homes were thrown up by greedy builders whose quality of workmanship was quite poor. We aren't talking about little Arts & Crafts bungalows that will still be standing 120 years from now, we're talking about a nation covered with nelighborhoods of shoddy firetraps that will all decline into ramshackle ghettos in another fifteen to twenty years.
      View article »
    • Wed Aug 27th 15:23 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Speculation and the Price of Oil: An Unfriendly Note
      Anyways back to actual discussion of oil futures, the self-righteous but not highly decorated oil pontificator RLoftus says oil is likely to go up slightly in the next month as increased demand-the result of 89 octane unleaded pump prices falling below the threshold of elasticity price of $3.85 USD/gallon-results in a nationwide increase in pump sales. Oil prices will likely spend most of the next month in the $112 to $124 USD/barrel range that I predicted some time back, however with the recent upsurge in demand there is a possibility of once again seeing $130 USD/barrel around the middle to latter weeks of next month.
      View article »
    • Thu Aug 14th 11:08 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Will American Changes in Energy Consumption Stick?
      Sorry, misspoke, threshold of elasticity for gas, oil prices 112 to 124-you know what I meant.
      View article »
    • Thu Aug 14th 11:08 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Will American Changes in Energy Consumption Stick?
      I maintain that the threshold of elasticity for oil is around 3.85 USD/gallon of 89 octane unleaded. As pump prices fall below that threshold we will see consumption increase. Oil will remain in the 112 to 124 a barrel range for quite some time as unleaded pump prices fluctuate between 3.65 and 3.99 a gallon over the course of the next six months.
      View article »
    • Sun Aug 10th 20:04 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Risks of Falling Gas Prices: Bad Decisions, All Over Again
      I generally agree with this article. The threshold of elasticity for 89 octane unleaded has been shown to be around $3.85/gallon USD. Its unlikely that the price of gas at the pump will ever fall much below that figure. Oil producers know that if they allow prices to spike too high demand for alternative energy will become greater, and the potential for devaluation of oil shares will increase dramatically, but they also don't want to oversupply the market and see the unit sale value of oil drop.

      I'm pretty confident that oil prices have already pretty much bottomed out, and we'll see prices hovering in the $112 to 124 USD/barrel range for quite some time. Pump prices are likely to fall below the $3.85 mark, but I wouldn't bet on nationwide pump averages falling much below $3.65/gallon for 89 octane unleaded at any point in the near future.
      View article »
    • Sat Aug 9th 17:46 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      King Dollar Roars Back
      The resurgence of the dollar is inherently linked to the recent surge in oil and food prices. The rest of the world still loves to get its hands on US dollars. For all the relative instability of the dollar recently, US currency is still far more reliable than most national currencies. When gasoline consumption declines and elective retail purchases hit a wall the rest of the world will attribute a higher value to US dollars as they become relatively scarce in the market-place.
      View article »
    • Thu Jul 31st 15:42 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      How Elastic Is the World's Oil Supply?
      I agree with you about needing more time to see the buildup of supplies appear. Right now we're not seeing prices at the pump falling at the same rate that prices are falling in the commodities markets, and that's having an ongoing negative impact on gasoline demand. Personally, I feel that the "threshold of elasticity," for 89 octane unleaded is 3.85 USD, and we should consider measures of inventory accumulation from the point in time where pump prices exceeded $3.85/gallon. I'm confident that by this time next year petrol reserves will be significantly larger than they are now-provided oil producers don't get into the habit of (very publicly) closing down points of production to scare market prices higher.
      View article »
    • Tue Jul 29th 18:21 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is There a Correlation Between Public Transport and Gas Prices?
      In light of this new information, I may have to revise downward my claim that the threshold of elasticity for 89 Octane unleaded is approximately 3.85/gallon USD. The real number may be closer to 3.79 USD.
      View article »
    • Mon Jul 28th 19:58 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Oil Prices, Global GDP, and Net Oil Exports
      I have a hard time accepting the notion that an increase in world GDP correlates directly to the price of oil, because so much of the increase in value related to increased Economic output is linked to the growth in professional services; especially in the fields of medicine. If we lived in a world where all anyone did was make widgets and try to outdo each other in the manufacture of said widgets, your argument would make sense. It takes roughly the same amount of electricity to power the machines and lights in a small hospital as it does to power a small shopping mall, and yet the value of the Economic Output from that hospital (If we were to measure in $psf) is many times higher.

      PhD or not, this sounds like more pro-high oil price garbage to me.

      Day-traders should give up on this one. The relative threshold of elasticity for gasoline consumption is in the range of $3.85 USD/gallon of 89 octane unleaded. That's the neighborhood where you'll find the oil companies dealing.
      View article »
    • Sun Jul 27th 19:52 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Insiders Preparing for Major Drop in Oil Prices
      For those who keep saying that the increase in oil prices is justified, let's admit some reality here: certain individuals wanted to find out exactly where the price-point was at which demand for oil would begin to show some degree of elasticity. You can argue all day about the exact dollar amount, but let's keep it simple and say that the tipping point is somewhere around $3.85 USD/gallon of 89 Octane unleaded. You can be sure that oil will fall to the point where pump prices are just below that threshold of elasticity, and any further tendencies towards dramatic spikes will be tempered by the balancing-and it really is a balancing, as we are excessively weighted towards oil in our current energy policies-of oil dependence with increased development of other fossil fuel and renewable resources.

      View article »
    • Fri Jul 25th 19:03 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Oil Price Targets
      If your talking about who really controls the price of oil, don't forget Hasan Qabazard: Editor in Chief of Opec's Monthly Oil Reports.

      Based on what was reported in Opec's July Outlook I think it's realistic that we might see oil prices fall somewhat, but don't forget that now the American Public is "price conditioned," to accept $4+/gallon gasoline, so the inevitable creep back towards larger vehicles may happen sooner than you think. I tend to think that oil prices will stabilize in the $112 to $124 a barrel range. We may see some temporary dips below that price, but they'll be relatively short-lived-less than a week.


      View article »
    • Thu Jul 17th 16:42 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Offshore Drilling Isn't the Answer - Supply and Demand Is
      One thing that can't be ignored about oil is that although you can quibble about the exact price where US consumers start to change their behaviors, it's undeniable at at some point between 3.85 and 4 dollars a gallon for unleaded regular people start looking for ways to reduce their energy consumption. OPEC's report on Wednesday cited a variety of factors that are expected to reduce demand for oil in 2009, most notably that projected demand growth is less than projected supply growth.

      As of 3 pm today oil temporarily dipped below $130/barrel, and it's likely that by the end of July US consumers will see unleaded regular pump prices below 4 dollars a gallon. What remains to be seen is if US consumption spikes once a public that's been price conditioned to accept 4 dollar a gallon gas sees a relatively significant dip in unit cost.
      View article »
    • Sat Jul 12th 13:13 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Dollar Hurt by Geopolitical Concerns and High Oil
      Whether or not retail sales turn out to be good news depends on your perspective. Retail sales will see a temporary impetus due to the economic stimulus checks but right now strong retail sales would be bad for the price of oil. To bring the price of oil down we need to see a significant decline in retail consumption, which entails a reduction in orders going to China, and the eventual decline in Chinese consumption that falling US consumer goods orders will inevitably bring.
      View article »
    • Thu Jul 10th 13:02 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Stagflation and the Limits of Growth
      I disagree on the long on China perspective. The Chinese economy is largely dependent on the US as a marketplace. Any downturn in retail consumption in the United States will eventually affect the Chinese.

      I agree with you that the US has bad fundamentals, I can't possibly go into all the explanations of why. I see a real shift coming in US consumerism that's going to tank a lot of business models based on the "Immediately isn't soon enough," or the "The best isn't good enough," consumer mentalities. The ultra wealthy will always have their toys, but right now is a very bad time to be a mid-range retailer like Kohl's or JC Penney.

      I think the real growth will be in alternative energy technologies, but before that can happen there's going to have to be more public pressure on municipalities that caved in to utility companies and enacted policies to limit or ban outright the installation of solar panels and residential windpower.

      There's a lot of change on the horizon, and I also think that we're going to see a lot of octopus-like dinosaurs collapse under the weight of their own management infrastructure in the next ten years. I think we're definitely heading for a new "Age of the Entrepreneur." If your rich and lazy today, chances are tomorrow you'll just be lazy.
      View article »
Loading...
Symbols:
Authors:
Quick Links:
Contribute an Article Become a Seeking Alpha Contributor

Transcripts

More Transcripts»